BNP PARIBAS OPEN: Two weeks of action at Indian Wells wraps up today, as Canadian Milos Raonic is all that stands between world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and a record fifth tournament title, while on the women’s side Serena Williams makes her first appearance in the Final in 15 years and will face Victoria Azarenka. BETDAQ has live markets for both matches, of course, and we also have an opinion as to how it’s all going to go down (don’t we always!):
Serena Williams (1.35) vs. Victoria Azarenka (3.75)
It seems like women’s tennis has been Serena vs. Everybody Else for quite a while now, and she certainly hasn’t shown many signs of slowing down over the past few months. She breezed through the Australian Open draw without losing a set before being stunned by Angelique Kerber in the Final, and she’s similarly romped through this tournament, not dropping a single set and only being pushed to a tiebreaker twice. Azarenka has looked pretty strong herself, though, and she’s given Serena some problems in the past, beating her twice in tournament finals and giving her a good scare on several other occasions (Williams is 17-3 all-time against Azarenka, 6-2 in tournament finals). Both of Azarenka’s biggest wins in the series have come on hard courts, so she has reason to believe that she can pull the upset on the fast Indian Wells surfaces. She’s a natural baseliner who can slug it out with anyone in the world– including Serena– on a good day. Her serve, however, has been a bit of an issue through the years, and that’s one thing to watch carefully early in today’s match– if Azarenka’s service motion looks fluid and confident, she’ll have a chance to pull the upset. That’s a big “if”, though, as she’s been known to lose confidence in her serve and has lost many matches because of it. Serena has seemed supremely comfortable and confident over these past two weeks, and she’s just one match away from exorcizing the demons that have kept her away from this tournament for over a decade. I think she gets it done and I don’t think it will be particularly close, despite the fact that only one of her past five victories in this series has come in straight sets. Recommendation: Williams at 1.35, Williams 2-0 (sets) at 1.98
Novak Djokovic (1.19) vs. Milos Raonic (6.0)
Watching Novak Djokovic play tennis these days is watching a grandmaster at the height of his powers. The Djoker has just been pulverizing his opponents lately, dropping only three sets over his last 24 victories (!) and winning seven of the last eight tournaments he’s entered. The latest victim was Rafael Nadal, who seemed to have a spring in his step over these past two weeks and was drawing comparisons to Rafa of old, only to be swept off the court 7-6 (7-5), 6-2 by a superior player in yesterday’s semifinal. Djokovic didn’t even play particularly well, making 29 unforced errors in 21 games, and yet the outcome was never in doubt. Today he’ll look to make history as the first player to win this prestigious tournament five times, and all that stands in his way is 12-seed Milos Raonic, a 25-year old Canadian who has never beaten Djokovic in five previous attempts. Their last meeting came in the quarterfinals of January’s Australian Open, with Djokovic winning 7-6 (7-5), 6-4, 6-2, and the Djoker hasn’t dropped a set to Raonic since their clay-court meeting in Rome back in 2014. Overall Djokovic holds a 13-1 set lead in the rivalry, so you’ve got to squint awful hard to see this as anything but a clear mismatch. For such a dominant player Djokovic hasn’t been particularly good in tournament finals throughout his career… uhhh… is that even a valid criticism anymore?? I mean, the guy has won 7 of his last 8 tournaments, he’s won this one four times… the reality is there is no valid criticism when it comes to Djokovic right now. My best advice is to avoid any situation where you have to root against him in order to win money. Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.19, Djokovic 2-0 (sets) at 1.64
