10-1 NAP AND CRAZY 20-1 CUP BET: Daqman, who has landed an 11-2 nap this week, goes for near-double that price with an 11.0 BETDAQ value start at Ascot. That’s despite yesterday’s losing gamble from 9.2 about Baydar (7/2 favourite): ‘there’ll be another day,’ says Daqman. He also has a ‘crazy’ 21.0 bet in the Victoria Cup.
ONE DERBY TRIAL: ONE DERBY RUN: Daqman 22, Pricewise 8 is the scoreline still after an unsuccessful feature-race challenge at Chester. Can the value-hunting duo do better today in the 2.15 Haydock and 4.15 Ascot and in tonight’s Kentucky Derby (11.34 p.m). The Epsom Derby trialists run at Lingfield (4.00)
HUGE 10-1 FOR DARING NAP ON DURETTO
2.30 Ascot I’m starting with a big-priced nap: 10-1 this morning on BETDAQ but a trade horse in that he is very likely to be much shorter at the ‘off.’
As so often this week, older horses don’t get a look-in against the four-year-olds, although you have to beware of conjuring tricks by Nicky Henderson.
He won the Chester Cup with a horse not seen on the Flat since 2013; now he wants us to believe that Sign Of A Victory can win his first turf Flat race after taking on the likes of Faugheen and Annie Power in Graded hurdles.
I still want my four-year-old, Duretto (11.0 on BETDAQ as I write): this is his only race before the Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap at Royal Ascot, which had a ratings range last year of 94-103.
Duretto must, therefore, win this if he is to get in. He’s been working well and the stable insists that he is capable first time. out He’ll have to be.
ASCOT: GRAND CUP CHANCE FOR STOUTE
4.15 Ascot (Victoria Cup) Fourth and fifth last year, Buckstay, up 13lb but drawn low again, and Emell, down 3lb but drawn high again, are both back for more.
Intriguingly, the only horse to win this with more than 9st 1lb in the decade, Gabriel’s Lad, was beaten by Buckstay over the Ascot CD in October.
Buckstay had already beaten Flash Fire at Newmarket in the summer. The big difference between them today is the draw, with Buckstay in 2 and Flash Fire in 29, with high numbers usually best and Flash Fire a real tank of a horse, 33.0.
I think Grand Inquisitor – 9.8 on BETDAQ as I write – will follow Flash Fire on the high side, and he looks nicely placed in the handicap by Sir Michael Stoute, who is enjoying a fine start to the season.
The other high drawn that I like is Crazy Chic (21.0), a big strong sort, fit from AW. Andrea Atzeni has been riding him and is retained by Stuart Williams who takes over the reins from Marco Botti.
Best in the middle-low stalls is reckoned to be Predominance but he may be unnerved by this huge field after only five starts. Hold Tight has run only three times! I’ll lay them for a place.
ON THE DERBY SCENE: HANNONS’ BOGEY
4.00 Lingfield (Derby Trial) You can save the Press clippings year on year and just repeat the same old same old.
Example: the front-page-blurbed columnist in the Racing Post today tells us that it is a ‘far from vintage year’ for the Derby.
How many times have I heard that. Only to read in the first week in June how one that he, or just such a writer had written off, maybe seen as ordinary, was a hero indeed.
At this stage I’m prepared to believe two things: US Army Ranger and Midterm are potential stars but each one still a work in progress.
And that, as ever, there’s ‘something’ we don’t know waiting to surprise us in one of the final trials, most likely in the Dante next week.
This Lingfield test hasn’t produced the big winner at Epsom since High-Rise (1998) but had spectacular results in the 1980s with Teenoso and Slip Anchor, who made all in the Derby.
Carntop is related to an Arc winner and a 2m hurdler so shouldn’t be short on stamina.
Landofhopeandglory’s Newmarket fourth looks better after a decent effort in the Vase yesterday by the winner of that race, Linguistic.
But Humphrey Bogart had beaten the Vase winner, Viren’s Army, when they were second and third in the Epsom Derby Trial.
Godolphin have promised us a revival in their fortunes this year, and Winning Story is their equine front-man on the Classic stage as far as we know.
If you go on stable depth it’s ‘Landof’; if you go on form, it’s Humphrey Bogart; if you go on stamina, it’s Carntop; on promise, it’s Winning Story.
And that’s probably leaving out the winner, Across The Stars, although he looks more like a Stoute measure for Midterm at this stage, and needs to improve a stone to get into this.
VERDICT: Humphrey Bogart should be favourite on collateral form but is 5.0. Can Hannon Junior do what Senior failed to do, and win a Derby? Here’s looking at you, kid!
OVER HURDLES: WAIT FOR CONSTABLE!
2.15 Haydock (Swinton Hurdle) Evan Williams – form figures 114 in this over the last three seasons – has John Constable up for a third success, and 13.5 was value on BETDAQ this morning.
Constable was the ‘moral’ when runner-up (after a long absence) in the Gerry Feilden, giving the winner 9lb, with the five-lengths third Ch’Tibello now 3lb worse off after winning the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
John Constable was behind Ch’Tibello at Ayr but is fancied for the pair to reverse placings a second time today.
The other trainer who farms this, Philip Hobbs, has three runners, with Richard Johnson preferring Wait For Me (7.2 offers at the time of writing).
USA: EXAGGERATOR ON FORM AND SPEED
11.34 Churchill Downs (Kentucky Derby) Santa Anita Derby winner Exaggerator has the best Beyer speed rating of the 20-runner field and comes out of a useful middle gate (11).
Exaggerator’s sire was the super-versatile Curlin, Preakness winner, Breeders Cup Classic hero and Dubai World Cup star in the days of Nad Al Sheba.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 4.8pts win WAIT FOR ME, and 2.4pts win and place JOHN CONSTABLE (2.15 Haydock)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5pts win and place (nap) DURETTO (2.30 Ascot)
BET (to win 20): 5pts win HUMPHREY BOGART (4.00 Lingfield)
LAY FOR A PLACE to lose 10pts: both HOLD TIGHT and PREDOMINANCE, and BET 3.4pts win GRAND INQUISITOR, plus 1.5pts win and place CRAZY CHIC, and 1pt win and place FLASH FIRE (4.15 Ascot)
BET (stake to win 20pts): EXAGGERATOR (11.34 Churchill Downs)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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