4-1 TURBINE WAS 10.0 ON BETDAQ: After 11.5 winner Jemayel on Sunday, Daqman landed 10.0 BETDAQ offer Turbine on the opening day of the Tapeta track at Newcastle yesterday. Turbine (WON 4-1) was the medium of a gamble, yet again highlighting the value of Betdaq morning offers.
IRISH GUINEAS ABC GUIDES: Multi-stable-declarations for the weekend Irish 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas queer the markets today and, until we know more, all have to be assessed. Above his new 1,000 analysis (ABC key with it), Daqman has repeated yesterday’s 2,000 ABC check (key in yesterday’s column) for clarity.
SATURDAY’S REVISED IRISH 2,000 ABC
It’s almost a private party. Ten of the 13 declared for Saturday night’s Irish 2,000 Guineas are carved up between Aidan O’Brien 6 and Jim Bolger 4.
Hardly a drumstick left for Kevin Prendergast and Michael O’Callaghan, but sitting at the head of the table is the lone English raider, Hugo Palmer, with his shock Newmarket Guineas winner, Galileo Gold.
Gold from Galileo has long been the preserve of Ballydoyle but can the Irish feast of runners stop hungry Hugo from pinching the bird from under their noses?
This revised list (from yesterday’s ABC key) reconciles the leaders in the market with those we didn’t expect to turn up at the Curragh banquet..
ABCDEX Air Force Blue
See yesterday’s Daqman
ABCDE Lieutenant General
Seemingly a potential Ballydoyle pacemaker, since he’s already been beaten by Blue De Vega, and was behind Moonlight Magic and Shogun in the Leopardstown Derby Trial.
ABCDE Shogun
Highly regarded two-year-old but, always blinkered, beaten by Herald The Dawn and Now Or Never in the Futurity at The Curragh, and disappointed in the Criterium and then the Breeders Cup.
Good ground and omission of blinkers seemed to help him on the last day, when he ran on well, runner-up to Moonlight Magic in the Leopardstown Derby Trial.
ABCDX Galileo Gold
See yesterday’s Daqman
ABCD Air Vice Marshal
See yesterday’s Daqman
ABCD Awtaad
See yesterday’s Daqman
ABCD Blue De Vega
See yesterday’s Daqman
ABCD Herald The Dawn
The four now left in by Jim Bolger are led by Herald The Dawn and Moonlight Magic. ‘Dawn’ was runner-up in the National Stakes to Air Force Blue, seventh in the Criterium at Lonchamp and, this season, eighth in the Newmarket Guineas.
All that gives him a well-exposed look but he still rates, officially, in the top five for this race, and it has to be remembered when analysing the Bolger contenders that the stable has been badly out of form until recently.
ABCD Moonlight Magic
As a Cape Cross, and on his first run back, he finished well behind in the heavy-ground Ballysax in April, but quickened stylishly on a better surface to win the Leopardstown Derby Trial.
Was the proximity in second of Shogun a black mark, or were they both suited to the better surface? What will Saturday’s ground be like? More question-marks than answers.
ABC Sanus Per Aquam
A third Bolger hope, just a pound or two behind Herald The Dawn and Moonlight Magic on last year’s four consecutive places in Group company but six lengths off Air Force Blue in the Dewhurst and not raced this season.
ABC Theodorico
This looks like the Bolger pacemaker, nearly two stone behind the principals on form.
ABDEX The Gurkha
The new Derby favourite, he would be running only six days after turning the French Guineas into a procession in only the third race of his life. Must surely be very doubtful.
AB Bravery
The last of six Aidan O’Brien probables, a stone or more out of contention on the book, even 7lb behind Lieutenant General officially.
SUNDAY’S IRISH 1,000: MIND HOW YOU GO..
The 1,000 is another bit of Irish! If the 2,000 decs are a surprise, then the 1,000 is a quare quandary for punters, thanks again to Mr O.Brien, who has Minding, Ballydoyle, Coolmore et al still down as probables in another stable bundle of six.
A Already won 7f-1m
B Winner of a Group or Listed race
C Already won twice
D At least two starts as a two-year-old
E Ran in last 21 days
X-factor: rated 110 plus
ABCDEX Ballydoyle
Aidan O’Brien’s Newmarket 1,000 Guineas one-two are both declared for Sunday.
One fine day last August (going firm), Ballydoyle beat Minding but Minding has had her revenge by widening margins since, winning the Moyglare (yielding) by three-parts of a length and the English 1,000 (good) by 3½l with Ballydoyle second both times.
ABCDEX Minding
Sunday will be 21 days since Minding won the first Newmarket Classic, with only 12 days then before the Epsom Oaks. So stablemate Ballydoyle may not have her standing in the way this time.
ABCDEX Now Or Never
Last of nine to Minding in the Moyglare and beaten by Jet Setting on heavy first run back.
She won the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial but runner-up Radiantly closed her down by four lengths from the Jet Setting race.
ABCDEX Turret Rocks
Ran Ballydoyle to 1¼l in the Marcel Boussac (good), improving nearly two lengths on her fourth to the same filly at The Curragh. She needed the race in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas, with her stable badly out of form at the time.
ABCDE Ashadihan
At least 10lb behind the leading contenders but a Group-3 winner twice on top of the ground over 6f and 7f, and should get the trip on at least one breeding line.
ABCDE Jet Setting (Supplemented)
Better for the race in the Newmarket Guineas when she was knocked out of her stride at one stage, having beaten Now Or Never three lengths in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial.
ABCDE Pretty Perfect
Lost by more than seven lengths at Naas on the last day but she was mixing it with older fillies. Likely to force the pace.
ABCD Tanaza
Has a stamina-laden pedigree but was quick enough to beat Minding (ran green) over 7f on firm ground in her maiden, and followed up with a comfortable win over Alice Springs and Turret Rock.
That puts her right up with the best but it all went wrong in the Moyglare, when she finished behind Minding, Ballydoyle and Alice Springs, and hasn’t been seen since.
ABD Coolmore
Runner-up when Anamba broke her maiden in September but reversed the form in the Weld Park Stakes. Put in her place (fourth) by Minding in the Fillies’ Mile, form confirmed to an inch when she was fifth to Nathra in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at the Newmarket Craven meeting in April.
ACDE Czabo
Such an easy winner of the Esher Cup (good to soft) that she was fancied to beat Nemoralia for Mick Channon’s stable-in-form but she was a disappointing on the firm ground, 12 lenghs off that winner.
ADE Even Song
Stayed on well, third, in a race of winners for the Newmarket Pretty Polly Stakes on the first day of the month. Half-sister to St Leger winner, Simple Verse, and looking to boost her Epsom Oaks or Ribblesdale claims.
ADE Radiantly
A nearly horse but a benchmark, as Park Stakes fourth to Coolmore and Anamba, and fourth again behind Jet Setting and Now Or Never for the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial, and much closer to Now Or Never on the last day in a similar race over a furlong further on better ground.
AD Anamba
A good mover, she beat Coolmore on her racecourse debut but the placings were reversed in a rematch for the Park Stakes. Not seen since.
BCDEX Besharah
Won or placed in eight of nine starts; winner of the Lowther, placed in the Queen Mary and the Cheveley Park. Despite such shows of speed, she was beaten only about 1½l, fourth in Sunday’s French 1,000 Guineas. Must be a doubtful runner for this.
DE Californiadreaming
Tried in a Group 3 (behind some of these) last utumn and has failed to break her maiden since after six starts in all.
DE Diamond Fields
Tommy Stack is just 1-30 this year, and this one is not bred, nor has raced, as if this trip will suit. Well behind Anamba and Coolmore as a juvenile.
– Cool Thunder
Seen as a sprinter last season and a surprise to see her over this mile on her first run since breaking her maiden in October.
PALISADE PRESENTS CV OF A JOB HORSE..
1.50 Bath There are not so many these days but once upon a punting year Sir Mark Prescott would send out half a dozen sequence horses a season: dark’uns which would emerge at a low level and make their way through the grades, winning race after race.
How to spot them? How about a three-year-old with nothing much to show for a short juvenile career, but gelded since.. yet stays in training for the Cheveley Park Stud, starting out in class 6 with a handicap mark which would make a seaside donkey blush.
I’m talking Palisade, by Fastnet Rock, who had seven Group winners in 2015, and has five colts and fillies running for him in the above Irish Guineas fields.
Palisade was 4-1 around some bookies this morning but 6.2 on BETDAQ as I write for a yard with a near 40% strike rate with three-year-olds-plus at Bath, where Luke Morris is 36% on his Prescott mounts.
Palisade does not want the rain to get into the ground. His withdrawal from a recent race when the going turned against him suggests that he’s a job horse, ready now.
WE’RE LOOKING FOR SOME VINTAGE FALLON
3.45 and 4.55 Ayr Adrian Keatley’s Friarstown stable has a 50% strike rate (3-6) raiding over in England this year, and he brings Kieren Fallon with him today.
In fact, his three winners made up a hat-trick here at Ayr in April, with Nice Vintage (3.45) and Anonymous Lady (4.55) two of the successful trio.
At 4.4 and 4.2 respectively in the BETDAQ orange, the obvious thing is an if-lose bet, but with a small double on the two in case they both win.
I’M SO EXCITED ABOUT ALMODOVAR..
7.25 Kempton David Lanagan has yet to strike form But Kempton is his track; he’s 20% there, improving to 30% if you concentrate on 3-y-o-plus handicaps.
And he chooses today to launch his dual Royal Ascot entry, Almodovar (5.1 on BETDAQ as I write), last seen as a big, raw Sea The Stars colt, with back-to-back success in July. Now grown into himself and gelded.
The wraps are also taken off another ‘big, nice scopey sort’, Petrucci (Sir Michael Stoute striking at 25% with 20 turf winners).
There’s a second Sea The Stars called Fallen For A Star, more exposed and with Luca Cumani struggling on 1-14 including five losing favourites from his last seven starters!
Almodovar must win this handicap a country mile if his Ascot entries are to make any sense, but we’d better have a saver Petrucci.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 3.8pts win PALISADE (1.50 Bath)
BET 5.8pts win NICE VINTAGE (3.45 Ayr), if lose 8pts win ANONYMOUS LADY (4.55 Ayr), which includes cover for the first bet. Add 1pt win double the two on Daq Multiples.
BET 5pts win (nap) ALMODOVAR and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) PETRUCCI (7.25 Kempton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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