BOXING: Mayweather fights McGregor. Boxing purists are spitting blood, hardcore boxing and MMA fans are trading barbs, and the fighters are heaping promotional petrol on top. However the well informed bettors are licking their lips.
This fight, shambolic in concept or not, has great betting dynamics. Conor McGregor moves the dial, no question. By sheer force of personality, the Crumlin native goes into his first professional fight against Floyd Mayweather Jnr. at shorter odds than Marcos Maidana, Miguel Cotto, Andre Berto and Robert Guerrero had against the same legendary fighter.
Prize
Mayweather is a legend. 49 wins 0 defeats, he’s fought 387 rounds and never lost a fight. 26 title fights, 26 wins.
McGregor has nothing to reference here aside from ifs, buts and wishful thinking.
In the ‘ifs and buts’ column, McGregor is clearly a prize-fighter-striker, close to the best the UFC has seen in its short history. 18 knockouts in his 21 MMA wins speaks to that power. Sadly for McGregor backers, it’s in the wrong sport.
We’ll get into the odds of it all shortly but look at the outright briefly, Betdaq punters can get McGregor as short as 4.6, while Floyd is available at 1.28. Beyond the aforementioned fight records and showmanship qualities, there’s something substantial in McGregor’s favour. Age.
‘Money’ Mayweather is 40, and has been out of the ring for 714 days. Allied to this fact is another undeniable reality, his powers were on the wane for some time before his most recent retirement. The American’s last knockout was six years ago, and he’s only managed three KO’s in the last 12 years.
Size
Conversely, Conor McGregor is ‘29 and in his prime’ as they say. In fact, he’s the exact same age that Mayweather was when he disposed of Ricky Hatton in what many believe was one of his best and last true performances. McGregor is also the bigger fighter. He stands at 5’9 with a reach of 74’ while Mayweather is an inch shorter and reaches two inches less. Their frankly comical face-offs have exaggerated those inches as the Irish underdog seems to walking around a few pounds over the 154 limit.
Surprise
McGregor will fight as unorthodox as is practically possible. A natural southpaw, with a propensity to switch mid-fight, and a tendency to stand up in his stance, the Irishman could pose a threat or at least a puzzle in the opening rounds.
The problem for McGregor is Mayweather always figures out his opponent. The manner in which he handled, Canelo Alvarez, Oscar de la Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Manny Pacquaio et al suggests that beyond rounds 3 or 4 is where is pedigree will start to manifest into punches to the face and body.
In terms of chin, both fighters are well set here. Mayweather’s undefeated record speaks volumes, while McGregor has never been defeated on his feet.
Realise
If you take a Mayweather victory as a given, which is probably wise, the question becomes how to extract value from the fight. As we said from the outset, there’s definitely value to be had.
If you factor in McGregor’s unorthodoxy, Mayweather’s powderpuff punch power, and the realisation that the stronger fighter will want to give fight fans a contest that goes beyond six minutes . . . then let’s back this fight to get into round 4 at least. A Mayweather win in rounds 4-6 is available at a pretty enticing 5.4 on the Betdaq exchange. If we take this concept to the extreme, then looking at a processional, safe, low-octane fight that will go the distance produces an offer of about 3.6. Considering Mayweather’s last 8 fights have gone the distance this could be a good shout.
Finally, looking at the exact method of victory offers great potential. We’ve covered the ground here quite well before looking at the odds. We don’t think Conor has a real chance of victory under nearly any metric or occurrence, and as previously mentioned, his price is far too short for a punt to make sense. We also landed on the fact that Mayweather may not have the power to switch McGregor’s lights off. So what’s the method of victory? Well there’s two to plump for; Mayweather Jnr by TKO (3.3) or Mayweather Jnr by decision (4.1).
Ultimately we like Mayweather Jnr by TKO. He’s a phenomenal boxer, Conor McGregor isn’t a boxer. The Ref will likely step in if we see flurry after flurry landing on McGregor’s substantial chin.
As ever with exchange betting, these prices are dynamic so be sure to follow Betdaq’s comprehensive selection of markets for the Mayweather v McGregor card as the August 27th date nears.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
