BACK-TO-BACK DAQMAN NAPS: Daqman was on the right side of Frankie Dettori twice yesterday, first napping the Ascot ace on Zwayyan (WON 11-4), then getting the stewards’ verdict against him with Raheen House (WON 9-2). Zwayyan gave Daqman back-to-back naps and he’s today looking for a seventh successful supernap since September 8:
DAILY NAP
WON 4-9 PURSER (Thursday)
WON 11-4 ZWAYYAN (Friday)
SUPERNAP
WON 13-8 CAPE BYRON
WON 10-11 CARAVAGGIO
WON 5-2 LAGOSTOVEGAS
WON 4-9 GABR
WON 11-8 ELARQAM
2ND 5-6 NELSON (beaten a neck)
WON 4-5 ENABLE
VALUE BETS
Daqman 78, Pricewise 18
Today’s challenge: 2.05 Newmarket, 2.25 and 3.0 Ascot, and 3.20 Redcar
GRAVITY CAN STEM WATER FLOW
2.05 Newmarket I always seem to be facing off against Pricewise in sprints, because he has to tip in races nominated by the bookies which shows how much they love them. BETDAQ layers take note.
In fact, the Pricewise tip, Clear Water, may be the one to lay for a place today, or for the win after the lemmings have taken the early prices.
She hasn’t won since her maiden (always a bad sign) but is only a pound lower than the mark given her that day. Since then she has been cast off by Godolphin and there hasn’t been a penny for her under new trainer Michael Wigham (SPs ranging from 12-1 through 33-1 to 50-1).
She still has a bit to make up on Kassia at the weights from a Salisbury race which saw last year’s runner-up in this, Pixieleen, finish only fifth.
In a CD Listed at today’s meeting year ago, Kassia beat Gravity Flow a head and is now 6lb worse off. Gravity set up a sequence of 2211112 last season and could bounce back here, with the Willie Haggas stable’s current form 2114111. A tasty 16.5 on BETDAQ, as I write.
Marie Of Lyon and Rely On Me should bring the low numbers into the race, where Eartha Kitt (8.8 offers) appeals on her level-weights second at Pontefract to Group performer Queen Kindly.
2.25 Ascot (Cumberland Lodge Stakes) It’s four each to horses aged three and four. Older animals have a poor record in the decade (1-10), and it’s four years since Secret Number won here at Ascot.
His trainer, Saeed Bin Suroor, has been whitewashed on turf recently, sole successes coming on AW. Golden Goal was a big disappointment for the yard here yesterday.
Great Hall and Danehill Kodiac are handicappers, while Midterm had to drop to a class 3 over 1m 2f to win anything in the summer.
In any case, it would be a shock to the Pattern system if French Guineas and Derby placed, and Irish Derby fourth, Waldgeist (around 4-5 this morning on BETDAQ) were beaten in this.
GREY’S FORM IS PERSUASIVE..
2.40 Newmarket (Sun Chariot Stakes) Waldgeist’s trainer, Andre Fabre, came over to take the Sun Chariot on this day in 2015 and, in fact, French stables have won five of the last eight.
Siyoushake (Freddy Head), Qemah (Jean-Claude Rouget) and Fabre’s Usherette were third, fourth and sixth behind Ballydoyle’s Roly Poly at Deauville in July (Persuasive fifth) but Roly Poly was receiving 8lb on the weight-for-age scale and the required improvement has not been forthcoming, according to the handicapper: she stays on 112.
Since then, the grey Persuasive has had Roly Poly and Qemah well behind at Leopardstown when a Group-1 third to two other Ballydoyle top-notchers, so it’s hard to oppose her with Dettori-Gosden, flying at Ascot yesterday, now switching to the Heath.
BETDAQ offers of 3.95 taken, with a worried eye on the improver Aljazzi, who split Qemah and Usherette on this course.
3.00 Ascot Another Group 3 and another race at Ascot today which goes to younger horses, although it’s a sprint. So, tough going for Intisaab and Danzeno, even with their decent draw.
As borne out yesterday, low stalls (Projection, Tommy Taylor, Second Thought and Rosie Briar) are at a disadvantage
So the stats put a pencil through all bar Magical Memory and Blue Point, since they can’t give Simmie and Visionary away in the morning market.
The market says that Blue Point, placed behind Harry Angel and Caravaggio here (in fact, beat Harry Angel in the Spring) is unassailable.
But Magical Memory is big value at 9.0 on BETDAQ if this is indeed a two-horse race, and I can cover my win risk with a place bet.
10.5 FOR THE JUVENILES’ CROWN
3.20 Redcar (Two-Year-Old Trophy) Foxtrot Lady (in the one stall), Red Roman and Never Back Down (in 9 and 10), Flying Sparkle in 15 and Rumshak in 21 have all front-run, suggesting a spread right across the track.
Crownthorpe is from a good sprinting family but has proved he stays further. That could be ideal off a fast pace, and a bit of 10.5 on BETDAQ won’t do too much damage in a lottery event.
3.25 Fairyhouse Dual bumper winner at the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals, Fayonagh is launched over hurdles and seems a banker for your Daq Multiples
3.35 Ascot (Challenge Cup) Another one on the straight course, with stalls eight and higher winning 80% of the time, and the pace definitely on the high side today.
That doesn’t seem helpful to last year’s runner-up Firmament (from 7) or Burnt Sugar (6), which Declan McDonogh has come over from Ireland to ride. Raising Sand (1), Flaming Spear (3) and Johnny Barnes (5) also have their work cut out. I think it could be a rough race, with plenty of excuses.
None for Makzeem this time. He was favourite, despite coming from the one stall, when behind some of these in July, but now has gate 12, adjacent to possible pacemaker Mijack.
Mojito will be up there from 18 but the handicapper may finally catch up with him, after a 21lb hit for his hat-trick. Makzeem looked tasty at 8.4 on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 30, except where stated)
2.05 Newmarket (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET: 6.4pts win EARTHA KITT
BULL’S-EYE BET: 3.2pts win and place GRAVITY FLOW
2.25 Ascot
SUPERNAP at SP: BET 20pts win WALDGEIST
2.30 Fontwell
BET 5pts win and place BRADFORD BRIDGE
2.40 Newmarket
BET 10pts win PERSUASIVE
3.00 Ascot (win 30)
BET 3.75ps win and place MAGICAL MEMORY
3.20 Redcar (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place CROWNTHORPE
3.35 Ascot (win 30)
BET 4pts win MAKZEEM
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 2pt win trebles and 1pt acca Waldgeist (2.25 Ascot), Persuasive (2.40 Newmarket), Fayonagh (3.25 Fairyhouse), Makzeem (3.35 Ascot)
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