NEWBURY LAUNCH: The Newbury Hungerford meeting opens today with what Daqman calls an intriguing match between Ryan Moore and a lady rider who claims our attention. Here are his headlines of the day:
DAQMAN’S A WINNER WEEK ON WEEK
I’M BETTING MEGAN MUGS MOORE
SWISS WATCH ON THE MARKET..
CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR CHOIR
THIS COULD BE MAJOR IMPROVER
YORK COUNTDOWN: Daqman’s column opens with a preview of the big-race scene, including his York countdown. Don’t miss Saturday specials tomorrow.
DAQMAN’S A WINNER WEEK ON WEEK
Tomorrow Nine Saturday meetings in England, Ireland and France, with Daqman’s challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post.
Daqman leads by a massive 182 points, showing a level stakes profit to a single unit of 87 points on feature races chosen by Pricewise (-95). The scores are 58-19.
Sunday York Countdown with Daqman’s Fortune Cookies. Plus the spotlight turns to next year’s Classics and sprint championships, with the Prix Morny for two-year-olds at Deauville.
Monday York Countdown: Hotspots among the five doing battle for the millions.
Tuesday York Countdown: How to win from start of the market to start of the race.
Wednesday-Saturday Four magic tipping days at York culminating in the Ebor Handicap. Other highlights are the Yorkshire Oaks and the Nunthorpe.
Making up a super Saturday next week is the Ladbrokes Celebration Mile at Goodwood.
I’M BETTING MEGAN MUGS MOORE
2.55 Newbury Six out of seven over the sticks in 2016, now three out of four on the Flat, Cliffs Of Dover was 20 lengths clear at one stage over 2m at Haydock on the last day.
He was so far ahead that he ‘went to sleep’ and needed a reminder from Megan Nicholls (who rides again today) to keep him concentrated.
They’re saying ‘easy lead’ and ‘gifted the race’. But the runner-up was going for a hat-trick and Megan’s dad, jumps-ace trainer Paul Nicholls, is enjoying this cat-and-mouse game with the Flat handicapper.
Younger horses are eight wins in nine years in this one, and Saroog’s 5lb rise for scoring at Sandown may not be enough. He was never really troubled to surge at the leaders and then go clear.
But we assume that he swerves next Saturday’s Ebor for this, which is not really a good sign.
And Megan Nicholls’ claim means there is a gap of 12lb to Cliffs Of Dover, which may be hard to bridge. It’s an intriguing contest with Ryan Moore thinking all morning how he can bridge that gap against the 21-year-old girl rider.
The debate among BETDAQ traders has Saroog 3.45 as I write, with Cliffs Of Dover 4.6. Sky Eagle (also 4.6) is a lot closer than I thought for one who himself failed to bridge a 12lb gap at Goodwood. So I’ll bet Megan mugs Moore.
SWISS WATCH ON THE MARKET..
3.30 Newbury The low draw does well in this sprint, with stalls 1, 2, 3 having won six times in the decade. There is a potential for pace today among previous front-runners coming out of 1, 3, 8, 9, 10 and 14.
The lesson of the stats is that you need three or four races under your belt to tough this one out, so I discarded Heartwarming, and Lethal Promise may not last out if the pace is as strong as the potential suggests.
Swiss Air’s dam won this race in 2001 and she’s no doubt been trained with today in mind: maybe 12.0 on BETDAQ allows for negotiating the 15 draw.
I took that, hoping the Oasis Dream filly would shorten a bit, which would give me some confidence in her (and a laying off opportunity?).
CONDITIONS RIGHT FOR CHOIR
4.10 Nottingham (Colwick Cup) Ravenous, winner of this in 2016 and beaten two necks into third last year, has dropped 2lb but is 5lb out of the handicap.
Buzz goes for a hat-trick but this is two furlongs further and his back-to-back wins came on AW. Benadalid is on a hat-trick mission but also makes a similar step up in trip.
Island Brave is another whose best form is on man-made surfaces (fifth in the Northumberland Plate). He’s 8lb lower on turf now but has never even been placed outside the AW arena.
Racereaders reported at Newmarket that Dawn Choir needed further and slower ground. She’s got all that going for her today but is a 10.5 offer on BETDAQ.
THIS COULD BE MAJOR IMPROVER
8.05 Newmarket Three-year-olds dominate and Major Partnership should dominate the three-year-olds!
Statuario may be helped by the cut in the ground and could have the beating of his Sandown conqueror History Writer on revised terms.
Argentello has some solid form, but the placed horses were winners before and after Major Partnership beat them over 7f on today’s course and looks slotted nicely into his first handicap. Offers of 4.2.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.55 Newbury (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win CLIFFS OF DOVER
3.30 Newbury (win 30)
BET 2.75pts win and place SWISS AIR
4.10 Nottingham (win 30)
BET 3pts win and place DAWN CHOIR
8.05 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 6.35pts win (nap) MAJOR PARTNERSHIP
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