We’re down to the last eight and building to the climax of the NFL season. It will be a long off-season for those who have tough decisions to make.
There is no harder conundrum than the one facing John Elway, GM of the Denver Broncos.
Does he continue with the run-first, God-fearing quarterback Tim Tebow, who seems to have galvanised the fan-base and the team, taking them to the brink of the promised land?
Tebow sells tickets and merchandise, but is Elway sold on a quarterback that cannot throw the ball with accuracy on a consistent basis?
Yes, the Broncos beat Pittsburgh – who boasted the top-ranked defence – last week. Whether it was a game that was lost by the Steelers or won by six good throws by Tebow is open to question.
Remember, Pittsburgh were without safety Ryan Clark, running back Rashard Mendenhall, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger could barely move on his sprained ankle.
There’s something odd, ungainly and quirky about this Broncos’ offense. You cannot win consistently in this league by passing only 10 times a game. Three yards and cloud of mamma’s boy will only get you so far.
Gimmick attacks do not last for long. Remember Miami’s ‘Wildcat’? It was great for a season, but then was caged as opponents worked out the schemes – and as Miami always seem to do, they allowed a key component to leave, namely pulling guard Justin Smiley (and Dolphins’ fans are still trying to get over the Wes Welker trade to New England).
The stats tell us Tebow is a proven winner. But then Barry Switzer has a higher winning percentage as a head coach than Jimmy Johnson. Argue all you like, but it does not make Switzer a better coach.
Tebow has not shown he can throw the ball accurately and regularly on a consistent basis, so here’s one prediction: Tebow will not be a starting quarterback in the NFL 18 months from now.
The Broncos’ quirky, run-first attack will be transformed into something more conventional. Sorry Tim, but you and the oddball Broncos will be like somebody we used to know.
On Saturday, the Broncos travel to New England, who have not beaten a team with a winning record this season. In fact, they have played just two of these so-called ‘quality teams’ and lost both times.
Measuring their strength of schedule to that of Green Bay (5-0 against quality teams), Baltimore (6-1) or New Orleans (6-1) is not exactly comparing apples and oranges. It is cupcakes and anvils. To call the Patriots’ 2011 slate a cake walk is an insult to walking cakes everywhere.
But it says plenty about the faith that layers have in the Broncos that they are considered 13-point underdogs to a team who, statistically-speaking, have the worst defence in the NFL.
The Broncos themselves have been far from dominant. AFC West winners with an 8-8 record, the Broncos are an unconvincing 1-4 against quality teams and were beaten 41-23 by the Patriots in Denver just four weeks ago.
The Broncos have also lost wide receiver Eric Decker and fullback Spencer Larsen (knee) for the rest of the season, and safety Brain Dawkins is also set to miss the trip to Foxboro.
In contrast, the Patriots are well rested after their bye week and even though the Broncos have traditionally done well in New England – winning six of the last 10 meetings there – it is tough to see Bill Belichick allowing the same mental mistakes from his players that befell Pittsburgh last weekend.
The Broncos will not be taken lightly. There may be a new added wrinkle or two into their offensive playbook, but it is the prayer book they will need against Tom Brady, who will dissect their porous pass defence.
While it is possible that the Patriots will cover a huge handicap, the points total could be the way to go. The percentage play is to go under 51 points. In 18 contests all time in New England between these two teams, Saturday’s line has only been eclipsed on four occasions. Given the Broncos’ penchant for running the ball – and burning the clock with long drives to keep the ball away from Brady isn’t the worst idea – points could be at more of a premium than some are predicting. Either way, expect the Patriots to be hosting the AFC Championship game next weekend.
Like New England, San Francisco have had a relatively easy schedule, playing just five teams with a winning record. They won four of them and lost just one home game, a three-point squeaker way back in Week 2 against Dallas.
In contrast, when San Francisco and New Orleans meet, the scoreboard ticks over regularly.
The Saints have never won a playoff game in an opponent’s stadium and were knocked out at the wildcard stage last season in Seattle.
While the Saints have been scoring at home like they would at hookers’ convention with a briefcase stuffed with £100 notes – averaging a ridiculous 41.1 points per game – they are less prolific away from the cosy confines of the Superdome.
However, they may struggle to get near their 27.25 average per game on the road when they face San Francisco’s defence, who are conceding just 14.3 point per game.
The young and athletic Niners’ front does a lot of things well and will cause the Saints plenty of problems with stunts. They also have the best run defence in the league, so look for Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees to audible into screen passes in an effort to counteract the aggressiveness of the San Francisco linebackers and create balance in the Saints’ attack.
It is a fascinating matchup if you like to see a ‘battle in the trenches’, as it is strength on strength between the Niners’ defensive line and the New Orleans’ offensive front. Brees certainly won’t have a clean pocket from which to throw. Expect him to get sacked on a few occasions.
But essentially, as most NFL games do, this will come down to whichever quarterback is the most efficient.
While Alex Smith is often maligned, the Niners’ passer is actually quite effective at home, posting a 62.7% completion rate and a 99.8% passer rating.
While Brees is less prolific on the road, he is still making over 70% of his throws and while it might not be an easy victory, it is difficult to see him being outplayed by Smith. The Saints have too many offensive weapons and they should be able to eke out their seventh consecutive victory over the 49ers.
For those who like hard-hitting defence, Houston’s trip to Baltimore on Sunday is the game for you. Despite suffering more injuries than the average run with the bulls in Pamplona, Houston have managed to keep on track thanks to their disciplined secondary and a third-string rookie quarterback in T.J. Yates who is playing well above his experience level.
However, he will not have faced such a complicated scheme and a front seven who are perhaps the most physical in the NFL. This is going to be a steep learning curve for Yates and it is arguable that the Texans will have as much success on the ground as they did against Cincinnati last week.
Yates’s counterpart Joe Flacco has been inconsistent this term. He still makes some excellent throws, but he isn’t doing what he needs to do before the snap and he is often misreading what’s in front of him.
It will help that top receiver Anquan Boldin returns after knee surgery, although how much of an effect he will have is open to question.
The Texans lost 29-14 in Baltimore on October 16 in a closer-than-the-score-suggests affair. While fully expecting the Ravens to win – layers agree, making the hosts 9-point favourites – the points total looks on the conservative side at 37.5 points. But it is that way for a reason. This has the makings of being a bruising, low-scoring clash, one which the Ravens should be able to win.
In the final game of the weekend, Green Bay host the New York Giants at a frozen Lambeau Field – they have been shovelling snow off the pitch since Wednesday.
The Packers have outscored all but Kansas City in their games this season, and they should defeat the Giants more easily than they did in a 38-35 road victory in New York on December 4 when the pressure to remain unbeaten was at its most intense.
A lot will depend on how Giants’ quarterback Eli Manning performs. He is arguably the most improved player in the NFL this season and that is no throw-away remark.
Good quarterbacks make receivers – not the other way around. Just look at what he has had to work with this season compared to last year. And look at his touchdown to Mario Manningham last week if you are in any doubt – it was his third read!
He moves better in the pocket under duress now (a critical element in a quarterback’s game) and his decision-making is such that he rarely has a bad outing. With the Giants’ running game ranking on the floor of the NFL, Manning is carrying the Giants. He will always lob an interception or two, because that’s what happens when you pass a lot.
Most expect this to develop into a high-scoring affair, but the weather could be a factor and the total is big enough to warrant taking on.
In the end, the Packers should be able to take advantage of the Giants’ weak pass defence – providing Aaron Rodgers can find his rhythm under what is likely to be intense pressure from Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck. Happy hunting!
Suggestions:
New Orleans -3.5
Denver at New England – Under 51 points in total
Houston at Baltimore – Under 37.5 points in total
NY Giants at Green Bay – Under 51.5 points in total
Follow Simon Milham on Twitter @simonmilham
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