11-2 HOME WIN AND MAXIMUM STAKES HIT IN FRANCE The vibes are good for Daqman’s tips at Punchestown and Newmarket as the Classic season opens this week, after his bets finished 11233 yesterday, with 11-2, 7-1 and 8-1 shots in the money, capped by another winning supernap. The winners were:
WON 11-2 GOOD VIBES (Salisbury)
WON 7-10 MORGAN LE FAYE (supernap, Longchamp)
FOUR WINNING SUPERNAPS UP FROM THE LAST FIVE Morgan Le Faye was Daqman’s fourth winning supernap from the last five in a 10-day period, as follows:
WON 7-10 MORGAN LE FAYE (supernap, Sunday)
WON 5-6 CRYSTAL OCEAN (supernap, Friday)
WON 6-4 HONEYSUCKLE (supernap, last Sunday)
WON 4-9 KACHY (supernap, last Friday)
THE BETTOR’S WAY TO BET IS BETDAQ VALUE: It’s a big betting week, with Punchestown starting tomorrow and then the build up to the Newmarket Guineas at the weekend. Daqman sets the scene and warns of ‘big gambles’ lost and ‘big gambles’ to come. His verdict: keep cool and pick your horse from the value BETDAQ orange, the better way for the bettor.
PLUNGE HORSES? TAKE COLD SHOWER
IN, OUT, IN, OUT, shake the market all about! And that’s just one of the colts we’ve lost from the 2,000 Guineas: Calyx. I took him out of my Early Birds, then wished I hadn’t. Then was glad I had, as first he was injured, then he was running, then he was out altogether.
I warned on Thursday to ignore the ‘kites’, headline stories about big gambles that only serve to fill the bookies’ satchels.
Apart from the Calyx plunge that came to nothing, there was the run on Step Back at the same time from 16-1 to 7-1. He was beaten 19 lengths on Saturday, and the same race, the Sandown Gold Cup, had another ‘huge gamble’, West Approach (25-1>7-1), who finished sixth.
No sooner had trainer Colin Tizzard gone ‘on the box’ to say that one wasn’t warranted, they must be backing the jockey, than Give Me A Copper and Talkischeap became ‘big gambles.’
I think the message is clear. Pick your horse at the value offers on BETDAQ in the morning and don’t get caught up in the lemmings’ rush to do their dough at reduced odds. The crowd by definition cannot get rich.
Only bet the plunge horses as savers because, if you’re not already on, you have missed the value and you’re playing on the layers’ side. And remember that the plunge horses will create bigger odds in the rest of the race.
So many colts have now been lost to the Guineas that you and I need a couple of days to start again and reassess what’s left. A too-darn-hot Classic has become cold, so expect some more ballyhoo ‘gambles’ and ignore them).
We should look mainly at the trainers who have been winning the trials and potentially have quality in depth. Go deep into the breeding, looking for a turn-up this year.
Meanwhile, Punchestown starts tomorrow with the age-old problems: will fresh horses beat the Cheltenham winners; what will be affected by the change from winter ground to a sound surface? To name but a few of the problems, as they say. But it’s a fantastic line-up:
PUNCHESTOWN FESTIVAL DAY BY DAY
Tuesday: Champion Novice Hurdle, Champion Chase, Champion Novice Chase.
Wednesday: Coral Punchestown Gold Cup and seven supporting races
Thursday: Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle, Ryanair Novice Chase
Friday: The big one, the BETDAQ Punchestown Champion Hurdle
So remember, BETDAQ will be here with that low overround orange. No need to rush in and follow some bookies’ ‘kite’. Take it easy. It’s a better bet for the bettor.
- BETDAQ ante post is subject only to bet and lay by its clients not by the decisions of odds compilers.
IN THE KNOW AT SOUTHWELL
2.40 Southwell Regular readers will know my Southwell mantra by now. Course experience, Course experience, Course experience. Did I mention Course experience?
We’ve got a great example in the 2.40 where the BETDAQ market has Bettys Hope as favourite ahead of Littledidyouknow but it’s the latter with the course experience and a winning run at that.
Littledidyouknow ran green on debut over course and distance but stayed on well to win (Ambyfaeirvine well held in fourth) and I think she is capable of defying a penalty on her second start. The Archie Watson stable remain in terrific form.
Bettys Hope was beaten six lengths into second on debut at Kempton (by an Archie Watson trained runner) and was then narrowly beaten at Beverley. She’s going the right way but it’s always a big chance assuming they will handle the idiosyncratic surface here and I don’t like taking that chance with a favourite so the play has to be with Littledidyouknow.
Lili Wen Fach ran in another division of the Beverley race that Bettys Hope ran in and looks over priced, in relation to Bettys Hope at least.
2.50 Newcastle Trainer form has always been a solid foundation for DAQMAN. And it’s not always as straightforward as ‘hot’ or ‘cold’ based on top line wins-runs stats. You need to delve deeper – if a trainer is getting 66/1 shots beaten he’s not as cold as if he is getting 6/4 shots beaten !!
But the most money can be made at the cusp edge. When they are transitioning from cold through to hot is the time to strike. An edge before the whole world knows.
Richard Fahey hasn’t had a great start to the season but things might be changing. He’s had a couple of winners over the past two days and some places too, including a close 18/1 second at Wolverhampton.
As such, you can back the Cheveley Park Stud debutant Dutch Decoy with a little more confidence than if the race had been a few days ago.
It’s a calculated bet (as always the case with debutants) but the three with experience haven’t shown much and even with normal improvement may struggle to hold back Dutch Decoy who is bred to be a precocious sort who should handle the Tapeta surface.
7.30 Windsor Persian Sun looks interesting on handicap debut for Simon Crisford. He won well at Newcastle in December, sees out this trip well and might well have a little more scope than his rivals.
Victory Chime starts the new season off on a mark of 4lb higher after scrambling home when last seen and the others pretty much look in the grip of the handicapper.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 10.5pts win (nap) LITTLEDIDYOUKNOW (2.40 Southwell)
BET 10pts win DUTCH DECOY (2.50 Newcastle)
BET 5.8pts win PERSIAN SUN (7.30 Windsor)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
