LAYS ARE BACK IN THE DAQMAN PORTFOLIO: Daqman, famous for his lays sequences, is back hunting down false favourites today or, at least, as he warns in his column, those at a price which in a sequence should provide a profit if he can manage his favoured 72% strike rate.
When is a good thing not a good thing? Answer: when it’s a penalized novice-hurdler. I successfully opposed a whole string of them, then fell for Hit The Headlines (third) on Saturday.
Lady Kathleen (2.40 Plumpton) looks home and hosed today – it’s 10-1 bar one this morning – but no favourite has won in three renewals of this race and the last penalized ‘ good thing’ was beaten nearly 10 lengths into third at 11-10 favourite, though saddled by Alan King, one of the track’s leading stables on percentages.
I’m opposing Lady Kathleen as the launchpad of a new series of lays. My last lucky sequence landed 10 lays in a row in September.
That’s as may be, but my intention is a sequence which makes a profit: over the years, I’ve aimed at a 72% strike rate to give me a decent return, if I stick to favourites.
If all were odds on, I wouldn’t need that many because the losers cost me less. Lady Kathleen will do damage to the tune of around seven points in 10, if she wins. Only around a 40% strike rate at those odds will give me break-even.
I’ve never done that badly so Lady Kathleen is just one in a numbers game. If you are new to that approach, the mare will probably need to be taken with liver salts (particularly if you had a double brandy first).
But you have 12 mares running for you, including horses trained by Caroline Keevil (38% strike rate here), Alan King (37%) and Emma Lavelle.
But I fancy One More Cookie, 11.0 this morning, an Old Vic six-year-old who must have found her 16 and 17f bumpers far too short for her but, well supported in all three, she has gradually improved: tailed off first time last Spring; beaten 12 lengths on her first run back; but less than four lengths off the winner at Towcester on Boxing Day, sent on for much of the race on her second start for her English yard.
Trainer Martin Keighley has a top-line contender for Cheltenham in Champion Court, who won there on New Year’s Day under Alain Cawley, who rides One More Cookie today.
Another ex-Irish, Regal Brook is interesting for Jo Hughes, who had a couple of winners a week or so ago; Wilde Ruby won a bumper at Towcester and Genstone Trail won one at Ffos Las. All are getting 7lb from the odds-on favourite.
Betting to win at evens or odds on is a different matter. This time 72% success is probably needed for break-even. Chariot Charger and Owen Glendower, both around even money here (1.40), don’t make for a betting opportunity.
And Goring Two (2.10) went odds-on early. I couldn’t take that about a horse that wins on soft and heavy and is dropping back nearly half a mile on a much sounder surface.
Curragh Dancer has won over a similar trip but likes top of the ground, which is nearer the Plumpton going for this afternoon.
He is officially a stone better with Goring Two on their running at Fontwell in December when he was a 17-2 shot and Goring was a 25-1 outsider.
Yes, Goring has improved, given soft ground, but is there really a gap from 1.9 to 8.4 between the two? I’ll bet there isn’t.
A third odds-on shot this morning is Niceonefrankie (3.10). Like Goring Two’s race, it’s a handicap and no edge with which to lay him: in fact, he’s an improving novice and the main opposition seems to be old boy Magot De Grugy, aged 12, another who needs mud. Hasn’t won on today’s surface for more than four years.
He’s a great credit to Victor Dartnall, who is having a great season with the likes of Giles Cross and Exmoor Ranger. But 4.0 is about right.
Dartnall also saddles Sir Winston (3.40), a bit unlucky not to hold on at Fontwell five weeks ago but that’s the story of his life: a bridesmaid, with just one win at Taunton more than two years back.
Significantly, the money came this morning for Marias Rock, pushing her into the favourite’s chair, after badly needing her run back in December.
Trip and track suit and trainer Jeremy Scott has had three winners from his last five runners.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.7pts win CURRAGH DANCER (2.10 Plumpton)
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY to win 10pts LADY KATHLEEN and 2pts win and place ONE MORE COOKIE (2.40 Plumpton)
BET 5.5pts win (nap) MARIAS ROCK (3.40 Plumpton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win double and 1pt win treble CURRAGH DANCER (2.10 Plumpton), NICEONEFRANKIE (3.10 Plumpton) and MARIAS ROCK (3.40 Plumpton
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