HORSE-BY-HORSE ARC ABC GUIDE: THE STATS THAT ENABLE Daqman set out on a stats and trends check of Sunday’s Arc de Triomphe to find something to beat Enable, but ended up with a five-point affirmation of her chance of a hat-trick in the race. Here’s his ABC and more.
WEDNESDAY BETS: DAQMAN has three bets on Wednesday including a NAP at Kempton – all staked to win 10 points.
KEY TRENDS SAY THE HAT-TRICK IS ON
3.05 Longchamp, Sunday (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe)
A Won a Derby or Oaks (85%)
B Seven out of eight winners (and 8-11) were fillies/mares (72-87%)
C Group/Grade-1 winner (88%)
D 1m 4f winner (88%)
E Aged three (72%)
F Trained Gosden, Fabre, O’Brien (50%)
ABCDF Enable
She has scooped the Arc prize the last twice among 12 wins in a row under Frankie Dettori, making an overall £9.4million, also winning five Oaks, two King George and one Coral-Eclipse. Rated 128.
ACDEF Anthony Van Dyck (DOUBTFUL)
Won the Epsom Derby off 118 but beaten in the Irish version, then by Enable in the King George and Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes.
ACDE Sottsass
French Derby hero, deposing five-time winner Persian King, and taking the Prix Niel Arc trial when stepped up to 1m 4f.
BCDF Magical
Three times second to Enable (Breeders Cup, Coral-Eclipse, Yorkshire Oaks). In first two for nine consecutive starts.
CDEF Japan
Third in the Epsom Derby was followed by a hat-trick (‘Ascot Derby’, King Edward V11 Stakes; Grand Prix de Paris; and York International). Progressive and now rated 122, whereas the Epsom winner has dropped back to 117.
CDF Waldgeist
Very tough son of Galileo, only a few pounds short of the best. French Derby runner-up (2017), just two lengths off Enable in the King George (2019). Winner of seven Group races.
CD Blast Onepiece
Grade-1 winner in Japan; son of Sir Michael Stoute’s King George hero, Harbinger (world’s best of 2010), out of a Dansili mare. Winner of £3m in prizemoney.
CD French King
Unbeaten this year (4-4) in Germany, including cosy defeat of Communique and Old Persian in Berlin grand prix on the last day, which makes him about 121.
CD Ghaiyyath
Officially 127, with 4-5 in the last year. Well held by Waldgeist in the Ganay but romped home 14 lengths in Baden Baden Group 1 on the last day.
C Fierement
Lightly raced, never out of the frame in just five starts. Grade-1 2m winner in Japan. Beat Blastonepiece two lengths over 1m 7f, and only a length behind the same horse over 1m 2f on the last day.
C Kiseki
Consistent bridesmaid (3320223), behind Waldgeist this year.
D Nagano Gold
Consistent son of St Leger winner Sixties Icon. Second to Defoe in the Hardwicke but winning form is Listed level.
LIGHTS OUT ON TOWCESTER
Two jumps meetings on Wednesday afternoon but one track we sadly won’t be seeing again is Towcester. Hopes of of a resumption of racing there were dashed yesterday with the news that their 10 fixtures for next year have been sold to Arena Racing Company.
Towcester becomes the first course since Folkestone in 2012 to permanently cease operations after hopes had been reasonably high that they could arise, phoenix like, from the ashes as Great Leighs did after closing in 2009 and re-opening as Chelmsford City six years later and Hereford (closed 2012 and reopened 2016).
We can only hope it’s not the start of a trend as every course adds its own brand of magic to the rich racing jigsaw. But with the price of land being so high and so many competing leisure industries it might be a case of fastening the seatbelt for a rough ride over the next couple of years.
NOIR TONIGHT’S CALL
3.10 Huntingdon Phoenix Rock has been making plenty of hay over the summer jumping campaign with several good placed efforts and a deserved win at Worcester last time out.
However the handicapper has shown no mercy with a 10lb hike in the weights, which seems harsh given the mare was winning her first start in 16 career races.
Damut I’m Out has a similar profile – a good summer campaign but he actually races off a mark 1lb lower today – despite being a winner last time out !!
His win came over hurdles at Worcester and his chase mark is a pound lower than his last chase run at Newton Abbot when third. He was beaten 19 lengths that day but was badly hampered two out, through no fault of his own and with better luck today could yet prove he is on a good mark over the fences.
6.40 Kempton The quality improves a little at Kempton tonight with this class 3 handicap. Cadre Du Noir stands out here for Martyn Meade and Oisin Murphy.
The three-year-old sports blinkers for the first time and if they bring about improvement he should be hard to beat. He was an excellent course and distance third on handicap debut last month – despite not getting away too well and he remains progressive on just his fifth start.
8.25 Newcastle One One Seven (not to be confused with Two Seven, apologies to Spurs fans) might be worth waiting for.
The Anthony Brittain trained runner is out again quickly after a huge run at Newcastle on Monday when a neck second to Viola Park and off the same mark here should go close to recording another course and distance success.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 2.1pts win DAMUT I’M OUT (3.10 Huntingdon)
BET 4.6pts win (nap) CADRE DU NOIR (6.40 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win ONE ONE SEVEN (8.25 Newcastle)
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