BUNDESLIGA FRIDAY: Our new European football tipster The Ultra is showing a 28% return on all selections since the start. Next up its SC FREIBURG V BAYER LEVERKUSEN on Friday with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Ultra is a professional football trader with over ten years experience betting on European football. He has gladly agreed to do a weekly column on BETDAQ Tips where you can get all his latest bets.
The Ultra has a staking system between one and five points, with five points for only his most confident bets in Europe. He loves looking at the stats before each game and especially enjoys using xG (Expected Goals) to make a profit.
SC FREIBURG V BAYER LEVERKUSEN
7.30pm Friday Night Football comes from the Schwarzwald Stadion as Freiburg host Bayer Leverkusen. Both sides played on Tuesday night in goal-filled affairs, however neither won. Bayer Leverkusen would have been bitterly disappointed to lose 4-1 at home to Wolfsburg given how tight things are behind Bayern Munich at the top of the table, while Freiburg drew 3-3 in a great game with Eintracht Frankfurt. Freiburg were very lucky to draw on Tuesday on xG, however there were little excuses for Bayer.
Looking at the xG from Tuesday night, Eintracht Frankfurt had an xG of over 4 while Freiburg didn’t even reach 1! Talk about a score line not reflecting the game. Both sides are showing an xG of over 3 heading into this fixture, Bayer are showing nearly 3.5 goals for their average away game while Freiburg have just over 3. Interestingly however, both sides have conceded less than their xG. Especially Freiburg, conceding 15 goals at home when the xG shows more than 21.
While both sides seem to be in the goals on paper, those conceded stats would make you look twice at the odds. Over 2.5 goals is 1.63 on BETDAQ Exchange, and that’s not a price I’d want to lump on. Leverkusen games have been packed with goals, and I don’t want to back unders given they’ve came back with three games all with 4+ goals. The fixtures before lockdown were similar too.
Freiburg have been outperforming their xG this season and they don’t deserve to be sitting in 8th heading into this fixture. Bayer have won 9 of their 14 away games which is impressive and although they were put to the sword by Wolfsburg on Tuesday I believe they can bounce back with a win here. Freiburg aren’t as good as they look on paper and in the league table – 1.78 is worth backing on the away side but nothing to get carried away about.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Bayer Leverkusen to beat SC Freiburg at 1.78 with BETDAQ Exchange.
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