EXETER ON! SO IS LIKELY GAMBLE BY A YORKSHIRE RAIDER: Two doubles and a treble for a trainer’s magnificent seven plus a jockey’s five-timer, with big-race winners wide apart at 66-1 and 5-2. Daqman calls Saturday ‘the day that was all at odds..’ His nap today is at Exeter, which passed an inspection at 11 a.m. He opens his analysis by giving good reason for taking a 7.0 BETDAQ offer, a rare venture to the West Country by Yorkshire trainer Mick Easterby. Headlines:
🔹 THE DAY THAT WAS ALL AT ODDS
🔹 7.0 FLAME LIGHTS UP THE VALUE
🔹 CAN AFFAIR CATCH LION’S VIGIL?
🔹 STRICTLY COME BETTING..
🔹 JOHNSTON TELL LOOKS WELL IN
THE DAY THAT WAS ALL AT ODDS
Heads you win; tails you lose. There seems to be something gone awry with the whole business of betting odds on a day like yesterday, when the dice seemed to be loaded in favour of the few.
Like the day of Frankie Dettori’s magnificent seven at Ascot in September, 1996, at cumulative odds of 25,051-1.
Yesterday – in one day! – it was Paul Nicholls and Daryl Jacob, quite independently on an afternoon’s racing that might never have happened. All three major meetings had been in doubt.
💫 10.419-1 Paul Nichols Doubles at Chepstow and Wincanton added to a Kempton treble for the 11-times champion trainer’s own magnificent seven, the most notable success being by my Fortune Cookie in the Relkeel Hurdle, McFabulous.
Yours truly even managed to fall victim (literally) to sod’s law with my nap. Nicholls’ run came to an end when my bet of the day, Glajou, fell at 9-4 in the last at Winkers.
💫 3,275-1 Daryl Jacob His five-timer at Wincanton was for different trainers, including Capeland for Nicholls.
The others were for Robert Walford, Alan King, Ben Pauling and Milton Harris. Only one was favourite.
Extremes, too, in the big-race results. No punting value model would normally include the Coral Welsh Grand National favourite in the Chepstow mud.
But it won, and won well enough to become the talking horse for Aintree. But it was no Secret Reprieve for me.
And some 20 minutes later my 16.0 BETDAQ value bet in the Lanzarote made steady headway and looked all over the winner.
But Misty Whisky (2ND 10-1) couldn’t quite cope with Boreham Bill, who won like a good thing at the odds of a rag, 66-1, to complete a day purist punters will want to forget.
7.0 FLAME LIGHTS UP THE VALUE
⭕ 2.10 Exeter It was so near and yet so far for Nicky Martin yesterday, trainer of Coral Welsh Grand National runner-up, The Two Amigos.
Today her Minehead stable hopes for compensation from Bear Ghylls, unbeaten after three starts (2-2 over hurdles) but stepping up from the novice ranks.
Those who worry that he might race freely over this two-and-a-quarter mile should check his pedigree, which suggests a stayer.
That was confirmed on his hurdles debut at Lingfield, when he made most over more than 19 furlongs and had the form franked several times.
The runner-up won both before and after that race and the third horse home scored next time.
Though Elysian Flame is 0-5 over hurdles, the step up in trip from the minimum is expected to suit and he’s an unprecedented runner at the West Country track for Yorkshire trainer Michael Easterby.
A year younger and carrying 16lb less than the favourite, Elysian Flame was an overnight gamble into 4-1 with bookmakers but you could get 7.0 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this morning.
Second, third, fourth and fifth have won six races since Potters Venture beat them over today’s trip at Chepstow in November, 2019, but that winner has not been seen since and may need this.
Trans Express is 6-16 at Exeter, won here at this class-3 level on the last day and is still 12lb lower than in his heyday. He’s 11 now but respected, receiving 17lb from Bear Ghylls.
The other old boy in the race, the 10-year-old And The New is difficult to win with (1-10 over hurdles).
CAN AFFAIR CATCH LION’S VIGIL?
⭕ 2.20 Southwell This is Hughie Morrison’s favourite course, with a near-one-in-four stable strike rate, among the six AW tracks.
Those results are showing an 80-point-plus return, which suggests that the SPs are big, just what you might get with Affair (BETDAQ Sportsbook 12.0 this morning).
Affair and Lion’s Vigil for in-form Richard Fahey have the best of the draw. I like the way Lion’s Vigil raced around the inner at Ripon the summer and was denied by only a nose.
I hope to see him rail round Southwell from the one stall, with Affair – one of those who lie in wait and need some stoking in the straight – helped by the tow from Lion’s Vigil, who was 4.0 this morning.
Drew Breeze’s win here was his first in 14 races and the 5lb penalty could well stop him. It’s rare for horses in class 6 to follow up.
Compass Point has been around three-and-a-half years and his step up in trip here smacks of desperation rather than planning.
STRICTLY COME BETTING..
⭕ 3.10 Exeter Muckamore may be a favourite to oppose with Nigel Twiston-Davies on a poor 1-19 since Boxing Day, two of them losers from the front of the market, including One True King, who was down the field in the Lanzarote yesterday.
Muckamore himself was beaten favourite at Market Rasen in November, coming back from a long break. He’s had more time off since.
Strictlyadancer drops back to his winning distance here at Exeter in the autumn (Tea Time On Mars, a winner since, was behind). He is up a grade, 8lb higher.
Jack Tudor’s claim reduces the burden and ’Strictly’ gets 16lb from Muckamore, 10lb from Crossley Tender. I took BETDAQ 7.2.
Crossley Tender was a winning favourite here at this level in November, and that’s also cost him an 8lb rise.
JOHNSTON TELL LOOKS WELL IN
⭕ 3.20 Southwell Mark Johnston and Richard Fahey are both in hot form, and both have spotted the lenient treatment given to three-year-olds in this all-aged maiden.
Despite running second on the debut – only 10 days ago – the filly Tellmeyourstory (Johnson) receives 23lb from the top three older horses. Johnson’s had eight winners in January so far. Tellmeyourstory: BETDAQ 2.68 taken
With Richard Fahey 4-9 in three days, Aradous at BETDAQ 18.0 has to be worth a pound, though you’d normally expect to see the grey quietly looking for a good handicap mark.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.10 Exeter (win 20)
BET 3.25pts win ELYSIAN FLAME
2.20 Southwell (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win LION’S VIGIL
BET 1pt win and place AFFAIR
3.10 Exeter (win 20, nap)
BET 3.25pts win STRICTLYADANCER
3.20 Southwell (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.2pts win ARADOUS
BET 6pts win TELLMEYOURSTORY
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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