JACKPOT UP FOUR SATURDAYS IN A ROW: Eider Chase scorer, Portrait King (WON 11-4), yesterday landed Daqman’s fifth winning jackpot bet in the last four Saturdays.
110 POINTS PROFIT IN FEBRUARY: It brings his February jackpots total to 110.17 points at recommended stakes and he’s netted 170.89 since this latest winning streak began on December 3rd, 2011. The five Saturday scorers were:
* Feb 25: PORTRAIT KING (WON 11-4)
* Feb 18: BOURNE (WON 14-1)
* Feb 18: MASSINI’S MAGUIRE (WON 9-1)
* Feb 11: STORMY WEATHER (WON 13-2)
* Feb 04: THE WEE CHIEF (WON 7-1)
WIN-100 GRAND NATIONAL BET TODAY: Daqman’s usual win target is 30 points but today he stakes a horse to win 100 in the Grand National. That horse is running at Naas this afternoon.
Catch a big fish today! You must grab some of the amazing Betdaq value about Seabass for the Grand National before he runs at Naas today.
There were 50.0 Betdaq offers this morning as I write which is almost DOUBLE the price of the clear majority of bookmakers when I called up Oddschecker this morning: 25-1.
The National is the declared aim of the unbeaten Seabass, who bids for a Walsh-family Aintree repeat 12 years on from Papillon who won for Ted Walsh and son Ruby at the turn of the century.
Even Dougal would see that father Ted has an almighty chance if Seabass can get over his final hurdle today, or rather the Naas fences, in which he has to beat the one-time Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, Tranquil Sea.
Seabass has stormed up the rankings since winning a point-to-point on his seasonal debut and landing a hat-trick under rules since – his fifth in all – culminating in victory in the Leopardstown Chase.
Since he’s now up 36lb, today’s conditions race was the wiser choice than humping weight in a handicap, even though he’s meeting Graded-race winners with only a few pounds concession.
Officially, he is on 144 now, 11lb behind Tranquil Sea, so half a stone down at today’s weights. Saludos, the other Graded winner – but only as a novice – is likely to make the running.
In Seabass’s favour for the National is his superb jumping skill; he typically gains ground at every fence. Against him is that he’s never won beyond 22 furlongs and that, being by Turtle Island, he probably prefers soft ground.
His close relatives include 3m 1f chase winner Bensalem and he is distantly related to the Grand National third, Snowy Morning, whose sire was Seabass’s dam’s daddy.
As he’s nearly 50-1, I can afford to splash out into the Aintree pond, though we can expect more ripples before the final market on the day: I shall up my usual win-30 jackpot bet to win 100, so the stake is 100 over 49 = 2.04 points.
3.40 Fontwell (National Spirit Hurdle): In England today, the National Spirit has a star-studded recent results history.
The winners include a World Hurdle hero, My Way De Solzen, and two which finished fourth, plus the prolific Lough Derg and previous Triumph Hurdle winner, Celestial Halo, who’d had a second and fourth in the Champion Hurdle.
Horses with a maximum age of seven have won eight in the last decade and I shall rule out the 10-year-olds today and cast a suspicious eye on Paul Nicholls’ year-younger The Knoxs.
Paul Nicholls has climbed out of the slough of despond but five winners from 45 runners is nothing like championship form: The Knoxs win came when he got all his own way at Exeter and the only nine-year-old to take this was a previous winner.
He would probably prefer softer ground, and the handicapper tonked him 18lb for that Exeter success and, though Nicholls thinks this is ‘his sort of race,’ he was easy to back at 7.0 at the time of writing.
Battle Group and Topolski were both winners at the Grand National meeting last year, and I would expect they again have Aintree as their target, and Battle Group, also entered in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham, is given only a ‘squeak’ by trainer David Pipe for today’s race, according to the trade paper.
Clerk’s Choice has kept good company and is a fair bet at 5.2 this morning, with nothing else fancied bar the favourite, Third Intention, last year’s Triumph seventh who is tongue-tied for the first time by the in-form Tizzards.
The same Team Tizzard’s Rateable Value (3.10) looks a fair bet for a repeat in the Certain Justice Trophy, just a couple of pounds higher than last year and facing mainly old-timers and getting weight from the younger horses at the top of the handicap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BETR 7.4pts win (nap) RATEABLE VALUE (3.10 Fontwell)
BET 5pts win CLERK’S CHOICE and 1.8pts win (stakes saver) THIRD INTENTION (3.40 Fontwell)
LAY to win 10pts WOOD YER and 4.1pts win WAY BACK WHEN (3.50 Towcester)
ANTE-POST: 2.04pts win SEABASS (50.0, Liverpool Grand National)
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