MASSIVE JACKPOT HIT AT 50.0: NOW FOR THE CHAMPION: Daqman yesterday grabbed massive ‘overs’ about Seabass for the Grand National with 50.0 on Betdaq: he’s 14-1 with Hills this morning after winning at Naas. Now he looks at the Champion Hurdle for Daq value.
17.0 IS 60% BETTER THAN THE BOOKIES’ BEST OFFER: After five jackpot winners on four Saturdays in a row, Daqman elevated Seabass to land his biggest ever jackpot touch and win 100 points. Today’s rock-sold value has a 50-points profit target, at 17.0 on the Daq, 60% better than any bookmaker.
What do they know? If a bookie gives you short shrift about a horse – I mean even more than usual – he is probably holding heavy liabilities about that animal.
So it’s time to peruse the Cheltenham markets, with a view to spotting those liabilities on the assumption that there is a tidy wager or two involved.
But be careful of the ultra-mean bookie: I started ticking off one list of prices and suddenly realized that this particular firm was shorter about almost everything. Their books were so overround, they were obese!
For instance, they were going 7-2 Peddlers Cross in the Jewson when double those odds (7-1) was available in the majority and 7-1 Salut Flo in the Byrne Group Plate when there was plenty of 10s everywhere. This is my view of Day One at Cheltenham.
Champion Hurdle: The standout meanie here is Ladbrokes’ 10-1 Rock On Ruby when the others are going 12-1 and 14-1. But don’t worry if you are trying to get on, you could get 17.0 on Betdaq this morning.
Rock On Ruby (Paul Nicholls) is a winner only at Listed level but gave Binocular a fright in the Grade-1 Christmas Hurdle, going down a neck
Raceform says that, had he jumped the last better than he did, he might have prevailed over Binocular, who went on to take the Kingwell, so, with Binocular only 9-2 with Ladbrokes, 10-1 is more than reasonable. Until you turn to Betdaq.
‘Ruby’ was beaten only a short head in the Neptune at last year’s Festival, touched off on the line without Ruby Walsh to help: he had chosen the wrong one that day.
‘Ruby’ – the gelding not the jockey – has since raised his game by 21lb between November’s win at Newbury and the Christmas second to Binocular at Kempton Park, according to the handicapper.
On that kind of trajectory, the 8lb he needs – in theory – to catch Hurricane Fly is not out of the question, with two-and-a-half months between Kempton and Chelters.
At odds on the favourite, and 17.0 ‘Ruby’, that’s a value bet at this stage.
Arkle Chase: This is all about the top four, so a 25% difference in odds is huge, and here Ladbrokes again are shortest if you fancy Al Ferof at 4-1.
We’re still with Paul Nicholls, and no trainer and his staff have been working more overtime as they tried to stem the virus at Ditcheat, with the yard’s fortunes seemingly turned around at the weekend.
Al Ferof is as much as 11-2 with Corals and Betfred, but the 7.4 on Betdaq this morning was a massive 62% better than Ladbrokes.
Al Ferof was steaming to favouritism in this event after five straight wins until the hiccup of finishing five lengths adrift of Somersby at Ascot. But how bad was that?
It was an excellent performance by a novice who was running to around 160 (Somersby 166 that day), having finished six lengths ahead of Forpadydeplasterer (154). On that basis, who says he isn’t still improving?
Supreme Novices Hurdle: Corals put a hole in your pocket with their 7-1 Montbazon and 8-1 Midnight Game, where the others, including Betdaq layers, offer around 10-1 or 12-1.
In this book, alarm bells are rung by the Daq about such as Pearl Swan, on offer at 162.0, as I write, but with 14-1 and 20-1 the general fixed-odds prices, though only 12-1 with Hills. Shumthing wrong shumwhere!
Mares’ Hurdle: That unmentionable bookmaker I mentioned earlier is 8-1 Violin Davis, on offer to three fivers at 34.0 on Betdaq this morning. Makes you think, don’t it!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET (stakes are to win 20 points) 6.8pts win HAWKHILL and 2.7pts win KINGS BAYONET (2.15 Plumpton)
LAY to win 10pts VELATOR and BET 6.25pts win ROCKY RYAN (3.15 Plumpton)
BET 6pts win (nap) OGARITMO (5.00 Wolverhampton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-50 JACKPOT: 3.1pts win ROCK ON RUBY (17.0, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham)
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