THE AMAZING BETDAQ VALUE 1-2-3: Day one of the Festival is here. DAQMAN marks all races on your Tuesday card taking a stats-based approach to finding his best bets combined with the 1-2-3 of amazing BETDAQ value. His NAP runs in the Champion Hurdle at 3.05pm.
GET A RESULT ON BETDAQ
1️⃣ CHELTENHAM 0% COMMISSSION ON BETDAQ
2️⃣ A near level playing-field for your bets. The Champion Hurdle (3.05) this morning totalled 102% whereas the bookies’ Total % SP on last year’s race was 128%. Even the last race was only 102-103%.
3️⃣ Free value bets (Daqman 28, Pricewise 17) plus free form and facts.
Day-1 headlines:
APPRECIATE GLORY CHANCE
6.6 ALLMANKIND CAN PLACE
DON’T WORRY AND BE HAPPY
HONEYSUCKLE THE CHAMPION
24.0 BETDAQ BITE FOR SHARK
SAM CLOSE TO TRIUMPH FORM
STILL BIG VALUE IN THE LAST
APPRECIATE GLORY CHANCE
⭕ 1.20 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices Hurdle)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Appreciate It 153, Ballyadam 148, Metier 148
TRAINER: Appreciate It, Blue Lord.
FORM: Appreciate It landed an influential Grade-1 double at Leopardstown: though the Future Champions on the last day has not produced the winner of this in 25 years, the earlier Pharma Hurdle (ex-Deloitte) has thrown up Supreme winners Champagne Fever (2013), Vautour (2014), and Klassical Dream (2019).
Balllyadam won the Royal Bond – as did Vautour (2014) – but he was beaten in both Leopardstown races won by Appreciate it.
The Tolworth route taken by Summerville Boy (2018) has been followed this year by Metier, but that earned him the same rating acquired by Ballyadam in defeat by Appreciate It.
LAYS LOGIC: Only one outright favourite has won in 11 years of big-field cavalry charges but the race has cut up this year to just a handful of runners. One negative against Appreciate It is that only three winners in 25 years have been over the age of six but his form is progressive.
🟪 SELECTION: Appreciate It.
OUTSIDER: Metier’s stable is going through a lean spell so my second choice is Soaring Glory. He was put up to 143 after winning the big Newbury handicap, from which Zarkander, My Tent Or Yours, Ballyandy and Kalshnikov were all in the first four in big-field Supremes.
BETDAQ VALUE: 1.92 Appreciate It, 13.0 Soaring Glory
6.6 ALLMANKIND CAN PLACE
⭕ 1.55 Cheltenham (Arkle Challenge Trophy)
REPRISE: Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Shishkin 164, Allmankind 160, Franco De Port 156.
TRAINER: Shishkin, Franco De Port
FORM: The generous, dashing chaser Allmankind has improved a stone in landing a hat-trick but Shishkin jumps like an Arkle. A pity there’s only room for one on the rostrum.
Franco de Port is all stamina and deserves his chance against the big two where Eldorado Allen has failed, beaten by both.
LAYS LOGIC: Six odds-on favourites have won in the last nine seasons. It’s as hard to oppose the front two as it is to back them!
🟪 SELECTION: Shishkin
BETDAQ VALUE: The place Allmankind returns more than double the win on Shishkin, and you get two chances not one.
DON’T WORRY AND BE HAPPY
⭕ 2.30 Cheltenham (Ultima Handicap Chase)
REPRISE: Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
TRAINER: One For The Team, Ok Corral, Pym
FORM: Happygolucky, fourth in the Martin Pipe a year ago, follows the trend of success (9 out of 10) for previous runners at the Festival.
But that also applies to Milan Native (Kim Muir winner), Aye Right (RSA 5th), Cepage (Ultima 7th), Alnadam and The Wolf (Albert Bartlett runner-up and 7th), Discordantly, Pym and Delire d’Estruval (Martin Pipe 8th, 11th and 16th), Vintage Clouds (Ultima, 2nd, 3rd and 8th) and Nietzsche (Fred Winter 3rd 2017).
Pym and Ok Corral would not be penalised for the Grand National if they won this. Two who have targeted this all season are Happygolucky (kept away from bad ground) and Alnadam (kept back from 3m until now).
LAYS LOGIC: Likely favourite Happygolucky would be a lay if more rain got into the ground but you won’t know until nearer the time and, by then, the market may have gone against him, giving the lay bigger liability.
🟪 SELECTIONS: Alnadam, Happygolucky
BETDAQ VALUE: 10.5 Alnadam on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
HONEYSUCKLE THE CHAMPION
⭕ 3.05 Cheltenham (Champion Hurdle)
REPRISE: Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Goshen 164, Sharjah 164, Silver Streak 163, then Honeysuckle and Epatante 161 (but both allowed 7lb so 168)
TRAINER: Epatante, Sharjah, James Du Berlais.
FORM: Epatante ran a stone behind Silver Streak in the Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle and didn’t look the same horse that had beaten him twice last season, including by 12 lengths in this championship (when Sharjah was second).
Like Mares Hurdle winner Honeysuckle, Epatante gets 7lb from the field today. That mares’ allowance helped Honeysuckle run all over Abacadabras and Sharjah in the Irish Champion Hurdle last month.
Did Goshen, unlucky last-hurdle faller in the Triumph, show Champion Hurdle form (at last) in slamming Song Of Someone 22 lengths at Wincanton?
Not a course to judge Cheltenham horses by and the 11-10 favourite was under a cloud (withdrawn injured for today); in fact, the race fell apart behind Goshen.
LAYS LOGIC: Six winning favourites since 2010 but we have three at the front of the market here, of which Goshen could be anything and nothing; Epatante looks the most vulnerable.
The second home behind her last year, Sharjah, was beaten in handicaps after, and was 19 lengths behind Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle. The third, Darver Star, switched to fences.
🟪 SELECTION: 2.68 Honeysuckle. Lay Epatante.
BETDAQ VALUE: James Du Berlais, who hasn’t been out of the first two in nine races, switches from France to Willie Mullins for this. It’s a tall order but he stays further and could run into a place if it’s soft (win 38.0 place 6.4)
24.0 BETDAQ BITE FOR SHARK
⭕ 3.40 Cheltenham (Mares’ Hurdle)
REPRISE: Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Concertista 153, Roksana 153, Indefatigable 149
TRAINER: Concertista, Great White Shark, My Sister Sarah
FORM: The 2019 winner, Roksana, seems better than ever at age nine, but that age has won it only at the end of Quevega’s winning sequence, and Roksana lost her throne to Honeysuckle last year. They don’t come back.
A line through Black Tears suggests that Concertista has improved 18lb in the last year or so, and it’s hard to see why the Irish Mares Hurdle result over Christmas should not be repeated: 1 Concertista, 2 Minella Melody, 3 Black Tears.
Dame De Compagnie was the equal of, if not a pound or two better than, Black Tears in the Coral Cup last year but has tried chasing since.
🟪 SELECTIONS: Concertista. Lay Roksana.
OUTSIDER: I’ve dived in with Great White Shark before now, 3rd at 40-1 in the Martin Pipe a year ago; winner at Ballybrit; then stole the English Cesarewitch.
LAYS LOGIC: It would be a surprise if the younger mares were held by the nine-year-old Roksana, and she will be short enough to oppose while Willie Mullins’ two seven-year-olds run for you.
BETDAQ VALUE: 24.0 Great White Shark
SAM CLOSE TO TRIUMPH FORM
⭕ 4.15 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle)
REPRISE: Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
TRAINERS: Houx Gris, Hell Red, Riviere d’Etel,
FORM: Cabot Cliffs was the equivalent of 23 lengths in front of odds-on Heross Du Seuil at Warwick before that one was the equivalent of 17 lengths better than Doncaster Listed winner Her Indoors (the Doncaster runner-up had beaten a hat-trick winner, two of them Listed races).
My man in the long grass says that the grey Gordon Elliott filly Riviere d’Etel – to be saddled by Denise Foster – can only be beaten by herself.
If she can settle and allow herself to be buried just off the pace, she can turn her powerful engine to advantage up to the hill: made hacks of them at Punchestown.
Driving at them up the hill, first time in a handicap and first time hooded, will be Saint Sam, who brings the Zanahiyr form to the table.
Stayed on well behind him at Fairyhouse and this is the handicap version of Friday’s Triumph Hurdle which Zanahiyr is 7-4 favourite to win.
🟪 SELECTION: Saint Sam
OUTSIDERS: Riviere d’Etel, Cabot Cliffs
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites have done well recently but that follows a sequence of enormous prices. Pass.
BETDAQ VALUE: 6.9 Saint Sam, 12.5 Riviere d’Etel, 16.5 Cabot Cliffs
STILL BIG VALUE IN THE LAST
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (NH Challenge Cup)
REPRISE: Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Tuesday, March 9)
RATINGS: Next Destination 153, Galvin 152, Lord Royal 148, Escaria Ten 147
TRAINERS: Escaria Ten, Galvin (both trained for the race by Gordon Elliott; nominally now under others).
Elliott has won this with Grand National contenders Cause Of Causes (2nd Aintree 2017) and Tiger Roll (won Aintree 2018-19)
FORM: Runner-up in now defunct novices’ handicap here at last year’s festival, Galvin (5.1 offers) has set up a sequence in small fields since.
🟪 SELECTION: Galvin
BETDAQ VALUE: Amazingly, the BETDAQ orange is 102-103% overround. Can you imagine what the bookies’ overround will be on the last race if the hot favourites have all gone in? 130-140.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.20 Cheltenham (win 20, place win 10)
BET 1.6pts win and 3.4pts place SOARING GLORY
1.55 Cheltenham (win 6, place win 8)
BET 1pt win and 5pts place ALLMANKIND
2.30 Cheltenham (win 50, win 10)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win ALNADAM
BET 2.75pts win HAPPYGOLUCKY
3.05 Cheltenham (win 20, win 40 place 6)
BET 12pts win (nap) HONEYSUCKLE
BET 1pt win and place JAMES DU BERLAIS
3.40 Cheltenham (win 10, win 30, place win 10)
BET 7pts win CONCERTISTA
BET 1.25pts win and 3pts place GREAT WHITE SHARK
4.15 Cheltenham (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8pts win SAINT SAM
BULL’S-EYE BET 4.25pts win RIVIERE D’ETEL
BULL’S-EYE BET 3.25pts win CABOT CLIFFS
4.50 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 5pts win GALVIN
HOT-POTS ON DAQ MULTIPLES
BET 3pts win treble
SHISHKIN, HONEYSUCKLE, CONCERTISTA
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