DAQMAN’S HOT WITH 11-2 AND 7-2 WINNERS: Daqman was bang on at Bangor yesterday through Fabulu (WON 11-2) and Big Easy (WON 7-2), with Cloudy Spirit (3rd 14-1) placed in the same Big Easy race. His profit on the day was 28.10 points.
25.0 BET FOR CHELTENHAM RUNS TODAY: In Daqman’s final look at the Cheltenham markets today, he takes big 25.0 Betdaq offers about a Thurles trialist this afternoon for the Albert Bartlett.
TOP FESTIVAL TIPS NEXT WEEK: Next week, Daqman concentrates on the stats behind the races, day by day from Tuesday matching the Cheltenham cards to their running date one week ahead.
Albert Bartlett: Vendor (Fred Winter) and Boston Bob (Albert Bartlett) are among the Cheltenham market front-runners which look good but the Albert Bartlett could see a big change today.
The animal in question is Conor O’Dwyer’s Folsom Blue (25.0 on Betdaq but only 10-1 with Betfred, and generally 12-1 and 14-1).
Folsom Blue, who seems to act on any ground, which is crucial for an Irish raider next week, has made rapid strides since the autumn, and has never been out of the first three.
He hammered previous winners at Thurles and Clonmel in his last two starts and returns to Thurles today (3.55) ‘in exceptional form’, his trainer has told the trade paper.
If Folsom Blue wins – or even runs second – in his final test this afternoon, he will make the 25.0 look good value. I shall cover my ante-post stake with a bet on his chances today.
Should he trot up at Thurles, we’ll have ‘overs’ to burn, since the one he’ll have to beat, Lyreen Legend, has already run well against Boston Bob.
Willie Mullins pitches against the front two in today’s race, which is always a worry, but his pair, Hats And Heels (8.0 as I write) and Toostrong (9.8), were very easy to back this morning, as winners last time out for a championship yard.
Triumph Hurdle: Baby Mix won the Adonis at Kempton in the hoofprints of the last two Triumph winners, Soldatino and Zarkandar, in a race which now favours the front of the betting.
Gone are the days when you automatically picked an Irish outsider, and I think the market leaders will take the money on the day.
So my feeling is to get some Baby Mix into my book and, as ever, Betdaq serves me well, with offers of around 7.8 this morning, alongside only 9-2 with Coral and VC.
Gold Cup: Long Run and Kauto Star can only be split by their performance on the day, which seems a pretty obvious thing to say but, in advance at the prices, it means you are taking sides to find a winner, not backing value.
Opinions about what will win don’t pay as well as opinions about what is value, if you get those value assessments right when you are pricing up.
Grands Crus is the big question mark but more because I need to know whether he takes part here or in the RSA. If he misses the RSA, Invictus is a bet and a half in that one.
Meanwhile, as recorded yesterday, I’ve backed Invictus in the Jewson at 13.0 (he’s 7-1 with Hills), which is gold dust if he switches.
DAQMAN’S BETS
LAY (to win 10pts) SMALL FLY (2.10 Taunton)
LAY (to win 10pts) DARK SHADOW and BET (to win 20pts) 7.5pts win (nap) CALL BACK (2.30 Ludlow)
LAY (to win 10pts): SILVER ROQUE (3.00 Ludlow)
BET (to win 20pts): 1.6pts win and place FATHER PROBUS (3.40 Taunton)
BET (to win 20pts) 4.2pts win MARAAFEQ (4.00 Ludlow)
BET (to win 20pts) 2.2pts win AN CAPALL MOR (4.30 Ludlow)
BET (to win 20pts) 2.3pts win MISS BROWNES FANCY (5.10 Taunton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: 1.25pts win FOLSOM BLUE (25.0, Albert Bartlett, Cheltenham) and 1.25pts win today (stakes saver, 3.55 Thurles)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4.4pts win BABY MIX (7.8, Triumph Hurdle, Cheltenham)
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