THE STRIKER: previews Sunday’s Premier League games between WOLVES v BURNLEY, LEEDS v MAN U and ASTON VILLA v WEST BROM with extended stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
The Striker is a professional football punter who focused solely on football in the UK. He has over ten years of experience using exchanges and he’s been a full-time professional punter for more than five years. UK football is his edge and he sticks to it!
Thankfully The Striker has agreed to share his best bets with BETDAQ Tips! He will use a staking system between one and five points to give readers a clue as to how confident he is with each individual bet. He uses his own analysis to price up matches and loves advanced stats like xG, goal stats and current form.
WOLVES V BURNLEY
12pm All eyes might be on the Carabao Cup Final in Wembley between Manchester City and Spurs, but we have some very interesting betting heats in the Premier League today on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. We have an early start for Wolves against Burnley, with Burnley starting to feel the heat a little at the bottom of the table. Brighton and Newcastle have moved away from Fulham, and while they are unlikely to catch Burnley – they are in the firing line. Wolves have grinded out two wins against those in the relegation zone in recent weeks and they can grind out another win here. Although Wolves had been going through a rough patch, you could see them coming into form by their xG figures and they look too big here at 2.16 to beat a poor Burnley side.
Burnley will say they were unlucky to lose against Newcastle, and they were looking at the xG figures. However the reality is they have been giving away too many chances lately. In their last six figures you can see xG conceded figures of 2.92, 1.44, 2.64, 1.8, 2.86 and 1.23. They are consistently giving away chances and that can only suit Wolves who have been creating better figures going forward recently. Since losing to Man City which is to be expected they recorded 2.0 against Villa, 1.29 when they were unlucky to lose against Liverpool, 2.57 against West Ham and then beat Fulham and Sheffield United. Burnley are a very poor side and I’d have Wolves odds on to win here so I’m very happy to get 2.16 to start the day.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Wolves to beat Burnley at 2.16 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQwolbur
MATCH STATS
- After completing the league double over Burnley in the 2009-10 Premier League campaign, Wolves have won just one of their last nine league games against the Clarets (D4 L4).
- Burnley are looking to complete their first league double over Wolves since the 2012-13 Championship campaign, with the Clarets winless in their last three at Molineux since then (D2 L1).
- Wolves have won their last two Premier League games, last winning three in a row in the competition in June 2020.
- After a run of just one defeat in eight Premier League matches, Burnley have lost each of their last three in the competition. They last lost four in a row between July-October 2020.
- Burnley have conceded at least twice in each of their last three Premier League games, last doing so in four consecutive league games back in March 2019.
- Wolves are the only side yet to lose a Premier League game in which they’ve scored the first goal this season, winning eight and drawing one of their nine such matches.
- Burnley have lost seven of their eight Premier League games on Sundays this season, with the exception being a 1-0 win at Arsenal in December. Indeed, of all clubs to have played at least 40 Sunday games in the competition’s history, Burnley have the lowest win rate (17% – 9 wins from 52 games).
- Burnley have dropped 13 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, with two of their last three defeats coming despite having taken the lead. Only in 2016-17 (19) have they lost more such points in a single Premier League campaign.
- After a run of 35 Premier League games without a goal or assist, Wolves’ Adama Traoré has now scored (1) or assisted (2) a goal in each of his last three games in the competition.
- Burnley’s Matej Vydra has scored three goals in his last six Premier League appearances, as many as he had in his previous 53 in the competition.
LEEDS V MANCHESTER UNITED
2pm What a brilliant fixture, it’s just a shame Elland Road isn’t packed. There’s plenty of history between these two clubs, but it’s more so because the fans hate each other than a major rivalry. Both sides have been in good form lately, with Leeds managing to beat Man City and draw with Liverpool coming into this fixture. They were lucky to beat Man City, but they should have actually beaten Liverpool – they finished the game with an xG of 2.77! They meet a United side in great form, scoring goals for fun and seemingly full of confidence. It’s possible however that United might have one eye on their Europa League Semi-Final on Thursday because they look pretty certain of a Top Four finish.
That being said, they will see how tight things are below them and the sides chasing, so I’m sure they’ll want to put the Top Four question fully to bed before focusing on the Europa League. I know United have been in good form lately and they have also been scoring goals – but to me they are too short here at 1.85. I’d love to lay this price with fans in the stadium, but alas we’ll have to wait a little longer for that. However, Leeds have been excellent going forward this season and they have created a host of chances going forward. While United have been impressive, they have also made a lot of mistakes at the back and perhaps this will be a goal-fest, but United look a good value lay at the odds. I would have them around 2.0 to beat this impressive Leeds side.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Leeds at 1.85 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleemun
MATCH STATS
- This is the first time Leeds are hosting Manchester United in a league game since October 2003, a 0-1 defeat. They’ve not lost consecutive home league games against the Red Devils since October 1976.
- Manchester United won the reverse fixture against Leeds at Old Trafford 6-2 – only twice in the Premier League have they done the double over the Whites (1996-97 and 1999-00).
- In all competitions Leeds have won just one of their last eight home games against Man Utd (D2 L5), losing each of the last three in a row.
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games (W3 D2), with the Whites last having a longer run without defeat in the top-flight in February/March 2002 (6).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 23 Premier League away games (W15 D8), with only Arsenal between April 2003 and September 2004 (27) having a longer such run in English top-flight history.
- Last time out against Liverpool, Leeds became the first team to see their games have 100 goals scored in the Premier League this season (F50 A50). Manchester United’s matches have so far seen 99 goals scored this term (F64 A35).
- Man Utd midfielder Paul Pogba’s senior club debut came against Leeds at Elland Road, with the Frenchman replacing Ryan Giggs in a 3-0 League Cup win in September 2011.
- Leeds United’s Stuart Dallas has already scored against both Man Utd and Man City in the Premier League this season – the last Whites player to score in as many as three league games against the Manchester clubs in a season was Peter Lorimer in 1971-72, who scored in all four that season.
- Patrick Bamford has had 22% of Leeds’ shots in the Premier League this season (98/441), scoring 14 goals. His first seven goals this season came from just 28 shots (25% conversion), while his subsequent seven have come from 70 attempts (10% conversion).
- Mason Greenwood has scored 15 Premier League goals for Manchester United, with no player scoring more as a teenager for the Red Devils in the competition. He’s netted four goals in his last three Premier League games, and could become the first teenager to score in four in a row in the competition since Francis Jeffers in September 2000.
ASTON VILLA V WEST BROM
7pm This might not be the most glamorous fixture of the day, but it is interesting from a betting point of view. Aston Villa have finished off the season poorly, and I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at odds on here. That being said, it’s hard to trust a West Brom side who have been in the bottom three for the whole season almost. It’s fair to say we’ll have some big opinions either way on the prices here, however I’m happy to steer clear of the match odds market here. Over 2.5 goals looks the value call for me as both sides have been pretty open lately. West Brom have nothing to lose at the moment so I can see why they are happy to attack even if they come up very short like they did midweek.
You could say the same about Aston Villa really in the sense that they have nothing to play for. They are middle of the table with nowhere to go really. They’ve had a tough fixture list recently as they had to play Liverpool and Man City, but they managed to score in both games and they will get a lot of chances off West Brom who have won 3-0 and lost 3-0 in their last two fixture! I feel we could see a lot of goals here if we see an early goal, but as it stands I think over 2.5 goals should be shorter given the way both sides are playing at the moment. It’s not the most confident bet today, but 1.85 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQavlwba
MATCH STATS
- Aston Villa are looking to secure their first league double over West Brom since the 2008-09 season, when the Baggies were relegated to the Championship.
- West Brom have won their last two away league games against Aston Villa (excluding play-offs), as many as they had in their previous 21 such visits to Villa Park (D6 L13). Only once have they won three league games in a row away to their Midlands rivals, doing so between 1899 and 1902.
- West Bromwich Albion have had a player sent off in each of their last three meetings with Aston Villa in all competitions, with Jake Livermore seeing red after 37 minutes in the reverse fixture.
- Aston Villa have won their last three Premier League games against promoted sides, starting with a 3-0 victory against West Brom back in December. They last won four consecutive such games in the top-flight in the 2003-04 campaign (5 in a row).
- Aston Villa have won five of their eight Sunday matches in the Premier League this season (L3), as many as they had in their previous 44 top-flight games played on Sunday (D10 L29).
- West Brom have won just one of their last 17 Premier League matches played on Sunday (D5 L11), a 1-0 victory at Manchester United in April 2018. The Baggies have drawn three and lost six of their nine Sunday games this season.
- West Brom manager Sam Allardyce has won nine of his 24 Premier League games against Aston Villa, only beating Newcastle (13) and Tottenham (11) more often in the competition.
- West Brom boss Sam Allardyce has won Premier League games against Aston Villa while in charge of Bolton, Blackburn, West Ham and Sunderland. He could become the second manager to beat the Villans with five different teams in the competition, after Roy Hodgson.
- Aston Villa’s Anwar El Ghazi has scored more league goals against West Brom than he has versus any other side since moving to England, though all four of his strikes against them have come at the Hawthorns.
- Seven of Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins’ 12 Premier League goals this season have come in games played on Sundays. The only player to score more Sunday goals in a single Premier League campaign for the Villans is Juan Pablo Ángel (9 in 2003-04).
