LA LIGA PREVIEW: Our European football tipster The Ultra previews ATHLETIC BILBAO v REAL MADRID, ATLETICO MADRID v OSASUNA and BARCELONA v CELTA VIGO all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO V REAL MADRID
5.30pm A massive Sunday in La Liga! It’s already been an eventful week with the top three playing, there’s bound to be more drama today and we should see a lot of in-running swings on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Although it makes sense to play all the fixtures at the same time, it’s unfortunate because I’d like to watch all three and also see how teams react to needing to win or perhaps being happy with a draw. We start our preview with Bilbao hosting Real Madrid in a must win game for Real. Barcelona dropped out of the race a little with a draw midweek, meaning Real are the only side who are in a position to go past Atletico today if Atletico lose. Bilbao are better than your average mid-table La Liga side, and this will be a tricky fixture for Real.
On paper, it looked like Real breezed past Granada with a 4-1 win midweek, but the underlining numbers tell a different story. They conceded an xG of 2.09, and were very lucky to score four times based on the chances they created. I think Real have been poor lately, and they could easily slip up here. They conceded an xG of 3.79 against Chelsea, and haven’t been creating chances for fun like they usually do. Bilbao are a reasonably limited side, and they played very poorly midweek against Huesca but they do create chances and like to play an open game. I’m happy to keep stakes small, but I’m also happy to have a lay of Real at the odds. 1.63 looks too short against a side like Bilbao when they clearly aren’t playing their best football.
The Ultra Says:
One point lay (liability) Real Madrid to beat Athletic Bilbao at 1.63 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBilRea
ATLETICO MADRID V OSASUNA
5.30pm Next we move to the league leaders as Atletico Madrid host Osasuna. Atletico have been under immense pressure in recent weeks, and it’s been an eventful few months for them! At one stage it looked like they had the title won when they were seven points clear with games in hand, but Real Madrid and Barcelona caught up, and then Barcelona blew a chance to go past them when they lost their game in hand. That definitely gave them a boost, and the draw with Barcelona was hard earned and left them in a good spot too. They now have their fate in their own hands, and they simply must win this game. Osasuna have nothing to play for as they sit in mid-table, and are a pretty average side too. There’s no excuses for Atletico.
Atletico have had a very tough fixture list to finish the season. They have had to beat Barcelona and have had tricky games against the likes of Sevilla, Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad. That win midweek against Sociedad was massive and now they have two “easy” games on paper to finish the season. The worry is they have been conceding a lot of chances, and the 1.25 does feel a little short. Osasuna have been conceding a lot of chances too though and Atletico can expect to have an xG of around 2.0 in this game. Osasuna usually conceded an xG of around 2.0 per game and against a side like Atletico you can see them struggling. We could easily have a cagey and tense affair, but I feel both sides have been giving away so many chances lately we’ll see goals here. Over 2.5 goals looks over-priced at 1.86 and is worth backing.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.86 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQAtlOsa
BARCELONA V CELTA VIGO
5.30pm Last but not least, Barcelona play Celta Vigo. Barcelona are last in the La Liga title race however as they dropped points midweek with a 3-3 draw against Levante. They were very unlucky again, as xG finished 3.35 to 1.28 to Barcelona. That leaves them four points behind Atletico and pretty much out of the title race bar some amazing scenes. It’s hard to see Atletico not winning at least one of their final two games so that pretty much rules Barcelona out. They have to believe though, and we could see a lot of goals from Barcelona today. Barcelona have been the most unlucky side of the top three in La Liga in recent weeks. They had a game in hand to go top and lost 2-1 to Granada, but finished the game 1.74 to 0.81 up on xG. They have been putting in some excellent xG figures lately.
Celta Vigo come into this fixture off the back of four straight wins, but they have been lucky. They have been conceding a lot of chances, and although they come into the game “in good form” on paper, you can understand why Barcelona are as short as 1.24. The shrewd football punters know how many chances Celta Vigo have been conceding, and Barcelona can run riot here with an early goal. Any Other Home Win (Barcelona to score four or more goals and win) looks worth backing at around 3.0 – everything lines up here for a lot of Barcelona goals – they are creating chances for fun and Celta Vigo look weak at the back.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Any Other Home Win at 3.0 with BETDAQ Betting Exchange
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBarClt
