SECRETS FROM THE STATS: FRIDAY ONE WEEK ON AT CHELTENHAM: Daqman concludes his survey of the Festival stats, with facts and figures to set you up on Gold Cup day. Here’s his analysis for Friday of next week.
The Gold Cup is a walk-over for Long Run. That’s what the stats say but the race next Friday could hinge on a gallop by Kauto Star after racing at Wincanton this afternoon.
He may not have the stats on his side but he seems better than ever, if he is over a schooling fall at home a fortnight ago.
The stats for some other prizes next Friday are equally adamant, leaving races of massive entry down to just a handful of runners.
Here’s how it looks:
CHELTENHAM FRIDAY: 1.30 Triumph Hurdle: If your horse didn’t win last time out (9 out of 10) forget it; if it hasn’t had more than one race (29 out of 30), forget it; if it isn’t rated at least 139 (last seven), forget it.
What not to forget is that only top trainers win this: Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, King, Hobbs, O’Neill: nothing but the best.
The one to triumph will have pure class: in his blood; in his record. Only the sons – and daughters – of Group-1 winners (10 out of 10) who themselves have Graded-race form (8 out of 10) take home this prize.
2.05 County Hurdle: The play area is: ages five and six (7 out of 8 with five-year-old best), within a narrow ratings parameter of 131 to 135 (five out of six). In theory, you have now reduced 109 entries to only 15.
In practice, you are then likely to swerve the winner, since he could well start at 20-1, even 50-1 (three of the last four). The answer? Again, it lies with the stables.
The Irish have won four out of five; without them in the decade, it’s been Nicholls, Pipe and Hobbs. So stick with the home champions or the crafty Irish raiders: Willie Mullins is bidding for a hat-trick.
Tom Hogan and Jessica Harrington, who have both won it recently, are in that age-and-ratings play area: their horses are Citizenship and Flycorn.
2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle: Same old, same old: in the last six years, the Irish plus Henderson, King and O’Neill are your winning stables.
Graded-race winners and placed are seven from seven; and you want 2m 5f plus scorers only, or nearly so (six out of seven under Rules); ages six and seven (last six) and officially rated 135-150.
From 95 entries, there are just EIGHT that fit the profile, and the favourite, Boston Bob, 3.5 on Betdaq this morning, is not sighted!
The eight are: Ballyrock, Brindisi Breeze (10.0 on Betdaq), Cotton Mill (84.0), Deireadh Re (Nicholls, 120.0), Ipsos Du Berlais (Irish, 23.0), Rev It Up, Rocky Creek (Nicholls, 8.6) and Sword Of Destiny (Irish, 24.0).
3.20 Cheltenham Gold Cup: This is the big one, and the easiest one, if the stats prevail: no SP bigger than 15-2 (that’s 10 out of 10); rated above 170 mark (10 from 11); single-figure age (12 out of 12).
Result: Long Run walks over. Can’t be that easy, can it! What happened to Kauto Star? Well, he comes under the stat: no 12-year-old has won since 1969.
4.40 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle: Be warned that this is for conditional jockeys: only the very best have won it in its three years – Felix De Giles, Johnny Farrelly and Emmet Mullins – riding young horses (aged five and six).
The three winners came in a very narrow ratings band of 133 to 137 so, added to the winning age, there’s a high probability that the winner is among just a couple of dozen of the 191 entries.
Take your pick when the acceptors are known, but do check out the jockey’s ability before you bet.
5.15 Grand Annual Handicap Chase: Nothing wins above 10st 13lb but, then, hardly anything races with such a high weight. Nine out of 10 are a single-figure age.
A narrow ratings band of 129 to 134 has trapped 8 out of 10 winners and, weeding out one 10-year-old in that bracket, you have only a lucky SEVEN left for the getting-out stakes!
They are Idarah (14.5 on Betdaq this morning), Quito Du Tresor (34.0), Charingworth (84.0), Ultimate (19.0), Oldrik (84.0), Norther Bay (84.0) and Rileyev (25.0). And the best of British (but so often Irish) luck to you all!
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5.5pts win THE PRETENDER and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) VERTUEUX (2.20 Sandown)
BET 5pts win RED HARBOUR and 2.2pts win (stakes saver) HOO LA BALOO (3.30 Sandown)
BET 5pts win OPENING BATSMAN and 6pts (stakes saver) LITTLE FRITZ (3.45 Wincanton)
BET 8.6pts win CHERRY VINE (3.55 Ayr)
BET 2.5pts win MALIN BAY (4.30 Ayr)
BET 12pts win (nap) JAYNES CRUSADER (4.55 Wincanton)
BET 2.7pts win JAMARJO (8.50 Wolverhampton)
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