BIG RACE PREVIEWS: We take a detailed look at two races on the final day of Glorious Goodwood on Saturday – the opening handicap at 1.20 and the Group 2 Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes at 3.05pm.
Three In Form Horses Head The RPA Ratings
Thames Materials Handicap (1.20 Goodwood)
RACE SUMMARY: A very tight and competitive three-year-old handicap to kick off proceedings on the final day of the Goodwood Festival. The weights are headed by Od De Lally who stepped into listed company at Chester last time and seemed to find it a little to hot as he finished last of the eight runners that went to post. That said he didn’t seem to give his true running and it may be best to draw a line underneath that performance. If he returns to the form of his previous race where he took a Class 2 all aged handicap on the Tapeta up at Newcastle then he will be right in the mix here.
Sitting at the top of the RPA table is the horse at the opposite end of the weights to Od De Lally and that is Farasi Lane. An unfortunate loser over track and trip in May when going down by a short-head to Nebulosa, he turned in a very good performance last time out when taking a good handicap at Sandown on Eclipse Day and in doing so he recorded the best time of the day. He has to step up here in order to be competitive but he is in good form, he is progressive and he has a good draw in stall 2.
Another horse to figure strongly in the RPA table is the Richard Fahey trained Master Zoffany. Twice a winner on the tight turns at Chester this season, he too posted a very good time when winning a strong Class 2 handicap at the North West venue last time. He beat another of his rivals here in Just Frank and he is 3lb worse off with that horse for a three quarters of a length beating. It could be close between the two again.
The third horse to post a figure in excess of 30 points on the RPA ratings is the William Haggas trained filly Spirit Of Bermuda. A taking winner of a very good handicap at the Newmarket July Meeting on her most recent run, she comes here seeking a hat-trick of victories and although drawn a little wide in stall 9, she has a very bright chance of succeeding. She has gained her two most recent victories on a good to firm surface but having won over the course and distance on good ground on her debut, she should be fine on the ground.
And so in a tight contest it may pay to focus on the three horses at the top of the RPA table as they all arrive on the back of a last time out victory and with progressive profiles that suggests they will be competitive on the day.
A Wonderful Lillie Langtry
Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes: (3.05 Goodwood)
RACE SUMMARY: Some may suggest that this is now a penalty kick for Wonderful Tonight (pictured) after she was pulled out of last weekend’s King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes. However no Group 2 contest is ever easy and whilst she remains the most likely winner, she will have to bring her A game. She improved hugely at the back-end of last season culminating in two Group 1 victories in October at Longchamp and Ascot respectively. She returned at Royal Ascot this season and turned in a devastating performance in the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes where she beat Broome by a length and a half. She is the best horse in the race and she will take the beating.
However there are a lot of good fillies and mares in against her. Albaflora has been screaming out for a step up to 14 furlongs all season. She was very impressive on her return at Ascot this season where she took the listed Buckhouse Stakes by 7 lengths from another of her rivals here in Tribal Craft. She then ran fourth in the Coronation Cup and then finished fifth in the Hardwicke Stakes some 6 lengths off Wonderful Tonight. However she got outpaced at a crucial point in both of these races and this step up in trip of an extra two furlongs should see her to much better effect.
Believe In Love is another very progressive filly. She started last season by taking a handicap here at Goodwood off a mark of 80 and ended the season finishing third in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster off a mark of 107. Disappointing on her return at York in May (lost a shoe and eased down) she returned to form with a bang three weeks ago when she took the listed Stannera Stakes at Leopardstown by a length and a half from Frederica Sophia. She will have to improve further to take a hand here however that is not impossible and she rates a player.
Of the rest Golden Pass and Cabaletta are both rated 102 and so 15lbs off Wonderful Tonight on official ratings. That says they have plenty to find and of the two it could be said that Golden Pass may be the more progressive. However it is a big ask for either to win this. The three-year-old Divinely has been mixing it with her top class stablemate Snowfall this season and last time out she finished 8½ lengths behind her when filling second spot in the Irish Oaks. Perhaps the extra two furlongs here will bring about some improvement and with her three-year-old allowance factored in, she could get involved in the finish.
However the three fillies at the head of the betting (Wonderful Tonight, Albaflora and Believe In Love) bring very strong profiles into the race and all three have shown their best form on soft surfaces. The ground is drying out but there should be enough moisture in there for all three to perform to their best. The selection has to be Wonderful Tonight but it would be no surprise to see Albaflora get closer to her and particularly if there is any further rain ahead of the race as Ralph Beckett’s filly seems to be particularly soft ground dependent.
Suggestion: Wonderful Tonight
Alternative: Albaflora
DAY 4 SPEED RATINGS
The ground was riding appreciably slower on day 4 (versus day 3) and the overall times reflected this.
The fastest race of the day was the Unibet Mile and Maydanny recorded the best speed figure with a rating of 81. Although the King George was the second fastest race of the day the winner Suesa, equalled the rating of Maydanny and also posted a speed figure of 81.
The third best time of the day was returned by Baaeed in the Group 3 mile event and he returned a speed figure of 77. However he keeps winning without being extended and I think when he contests a proper Group 1 race, he has a big time figure in him and he is likely to record something in the mid-80s come the day.
