SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s Premier League games between BURNLEY v WEST HAM, LEICESTER v NEWCASTLE and CRYSTAL PALACE v EVERTON with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
BURNLEY V WEST HAM
2pm It might not be the most glamourous Super Sunday in the Premier League, but we do have three very interesting markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. Unfortunately we lost the Brighton v Spurs fixture today due to a big outbreak of Covid19 in the Spurs camp, and one wonders can their game against Leicester midweek go ahead too. We kick the day off with Burnley hosting West Ham, and this is another big day at the bottom of the Premier League with Burnley and Newcastle both in action. Burnley are under massive pressure now after losing that crunch game last weekend with Newcastle, and although they have been creating more chances than last season, they are also giving away far more chances than usual. They have almost lost their ability to grind out results, and that spells massive trouble for Burnley. West Ham might have lost on Thursday in the Europa League but that game was meaningless for them and they recorded a huge 3-2 win over Chelsea last weekend.
The Top Four is definitely there for the taking for West Ham this season with the troubles of Manchester United, Arsenal, Spurs and Leicester. To do that though they need to win games like this and to be honest I’m surprised to see them trading odds against at 2.08. West Ham were one of my favourite sides to back last season as I felt they offered a lot of value in games like this, and I feel this is another classic example. They have been playing some excellent football this season and they have been mixing it with the top sides this season too! Burnley were very poor last weekend against Newcastle, and I know they will be more comfortable here with home advantage but the quality of opposition is also a big step up. In their last home game, they conceded an xG of 2.13 with their only home win this season coming against Brentford, which was their best performance of the season to be honest. West Ham have been levels above Burnley though, and I just can’t see Burnley stopping them from scoring. I would have West Ham odds on, and I’m happy to have a Max Bet at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Five points win West Ham to beat Burnley at 2.08 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQBurwes
MATCH STATS
● Burnley have won four of their last seven league games against West Ham (L3), as many as they had in their previous 22 against them. They did lose both Premier League meetings with the Hammers last season, however.
● West Ham have never kept a clean sheet in seven away Premier League games against Burnley – only at Middlesbrough (12) have the Hammers played more games in the competition while conceding in each match.
● Burnley have scored six goals in their last two home Premier League games – 3-1 vs Brentford, 3-3 vs Crystal Palace – as many as in their previous 11 at Turf Moor. The Clarets haven’t scored 3+ goals in three consecutive home top-flight matches since September 1967, one of which was a 3-3 draw with West Ham.
● West Ham have lost their last two away Premier League games, last losing more consecutively in a run of seven between December 2019 and June 2020.
● No side has dropped more points from winning positions in the Premier League this season than Burnley (14), while West Ham have won nine points from behind so far this term, with only Everton earning more (10).
● Burnley have picked up just one win from their last 17 Premier League games (D7 L9), with the Clarets failing to score on nine occasions in that run. In fact, six of their 14 goals scored over these 17 matches have come in their last two games at Turf Moor.
● Only Liverpool (23) have scored more second half goals in the Premier League than West Ham this season (19), while only Norwich (3) have netted fewer after half-time than Burnley (5).
● Burnley striker Chris Wood has scored seven goals in eight Premier League games against West Ham, more than he has vs any other side. The New Zealander has scored in all four of his appearances against the Hammers at Turf Moor in the competition.
● Burnley’s Maxwel Cornet has scored in his two home Premier League starts so far – no player has ever scored in their first three starts at Turf Moor for the Clarets in the competition.
● Manuel Lanzini has scored two goals in his last three Premier League appearances for West Ham, as many as he had in his previous 57 in the competition.
LEICESTER V NEWCASTLE
2pm This is another very interesting game from a betting point of view. I’m sure we will have some big opinions on the Leicester price at 1.77. Leicester are having a very poor season, and Brendan Rodgers will surely come under immense pressure soon. All the media focused on Ole Gunner Solskjaer this season, but Leicester have gone to a bottom half of the table side from a Top Four challenging side and they were also dumped out of the Europa League on Thursday. They left themselves with too much work to do away to Napoli after some disappointing results earlier in the season, and it will be interesting to see how they deal with Newcastle here. That win over Burnley was obviously massive for Newcastle last weekend, but they really need to continue that momentum. If they can get in touch with the sides in 16th and 17th, then more players are likely to join them in the transfer window. They will all be there for the money, but that’s where Newcastle are at the moment – regardless of the motives, they still need to attract players to the club and if they look like getting relegated that won’t happen.
On first look here, you would back Leicester at 1.77. Newcastle have been poor this season, and the relegation zone is a fair reflection of their performances. Leicester started the weekend sitting in 11th but their performances have actually been worse. They sit in 16th on the xG table which shows just how poor they have been this season – as I said, I’m surprised Brendan Rodgers isn’t under more pressure from the media. With big question marks about both sides here, I feel the best value will be in the goals market. Both sides make so many mistakes at the back over 2.5 goals looks the best option here at 1.66. Leicester are playing such an open game at the moment, I can see plenty of goals here, and you have to say that Newcastle will fancy getting back-to-back wins!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLeinew
MATCH STATS
● None of the last 13 Premier League meetings between Leicester and Newcastle have been drawn, with the Foxes winning eight of these (L5). However, Newcastle won the last meeting 4-2 in May, last winning consecutive Premier League games against them in October 2014.
● Newcastle have won three of their last four away league games against Leicester (L1), as many as they had in their previous 17 trips to Filbert Street/King Power Stadium (D7 L7).
● Since their return to the Premier League in 2014, Leicester have won more Premier League games against Newcastle than they have vs any other side (8).
● Leicester City have conceded at least twice in each of their last five home Premier League games – they haven’t done so in six consecutive home league games since a run of seven between September and November 1964.
● Newcastle earned their first win of the season against Burnley last time out, ending a 14-game winless run in the Premier League. Their last three league victories have been against sides in the relegation zone, with their last victory against a side from outside the bottom three coming at Leicester in May.
● Leicester have conceded at least once in each of their last 14 Premier League games, since beating Wolves 1-0 on the opening weekend. Of current Premier League sides, only Watford (25 games) are on a longer run without a clean sheet in the competition than the Foxes.
● Leicester have conceded a league-high seven headed goals in the Premier League this season, while only Burnley and Chelsea (6 each) have netted more headers than Newcastle so far this term (5).
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has never won away against Leicester in his managerial career, drawing four and losing five of his nine trips to the King Power Stadium in all competitions.
● Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has been directly involved in 25 goals in his last 18 Premier League appearances against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (18 goals, 7 assists).
● Callum Wilson has scored eight goals in his last 12 Premier League games for Newcastle, beginning with a brace at Leicester in May. He’s scored 18 Premier League goals joining the Magpies at the start of last season, at least 10 more than any other player at the club.
CRYSTAL PALACE V EVERTON
4.30pm We finish the day with the most open market of the day as Crystal Palace host Everton! This isn’t the most glamourous Super Sunday prime TV slot, but it’s an important game for both sides. Crystal Palace have played a lot better than I thought they would this season, but they still aren’t fully out of the danger zone in the relegation fight. They started the weekend six points ahead of the bottom three, and they will need a good Christmas and New Year period just to build that cushion. If Newcastle get some momentum and bring in some new players, that will definitely open things up. While Everton’s win over Arsenal eased the pressure on Rafa Benitez last Monday, you can tell the fans still aren’t happy and I don’t think it will take much for him to go. A loss here would certainly pile the pressure on, and it won’t be a good Christmas for Rafa! It’s no surprise that we have a reasonably open market, with Crystal Palace the favourites at 2.34.
I have to say although Everton haven’t played very impressive football this season, the 2.34 does look too short on Palace. I know Everton went on a winless run for a while, but they did have a tough fixture list that involved playing Manchester United, West Ham, Spurs, Man City and Liverpool. To turn things around in the second half against Arsenal was pretty good given the low morale around the stadium, and you wouldn’t say that Palace are playing much better football than Everton this season. I expect a very close game here and I feel we should have the sides priced a lot closer to each other – I would almost have the sides priced very similar here and I feel the match will be a lot closer than odds of 2.34 suggest on Palace. From a value point of view, I’m very happy with the home lay here.
The Striker Says:
Three points lay (liability) Crystal Palace to beat Everton at 2.34 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQCryeve
MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace are winless in their last 13 Premier League meetings with Everton (D7 L6) since a 3-2 away win in September 2014.
● Everton are unbeaten in 10 Premier League away games against Crystal Palace (D5 L5), since a 1-0 loss in October 1994. In their top-flight history, only against Preston (11 between 1897 and 1911) and Liverpool (15 between 1899 and 1914) have they had longer unbeaten away runs.
● Following a seven-game unbeaten run, Crystal Palace have lost their last three Premier League games. They last lost more consecutively in June/July 2020 (7).
● Everton are winless in five away Premier League matches (D1 L4), their worst run since an eight-game stretch between April and October 2019. The Toffees have also conceded first in each of their current five-game winless run on the road.
● Everton have won more points from losing positions than any other side in the Premier League in 2021-22 (10), making up 56% of their total (10/18). In Premier League history, only Wolves in 2011-12 (60%, 15/25) and West Brom in 2010-11 (57%, 27/47) have won a higher share of their total points from losing positions in a single season.
● Only Wolves (4) have scored fewer first-half goals in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace (5), while only Aston Villa (24%) have netted a lower share before the interval than the Eagles (26%).
● Everton have failed to score in their last six Premier League games played on Sundays, since a 1-0 win at West Ham in May. It’s the longest run the Toffees have had without a goal on a specific day of the week in the competition, while no side has ever failed to score in seven consecutive Premier League Sunday games.
● All four of Wilfried Zaha’s Premier League goals for Crystal Palace this season have been the opening goal of the game, with three of those ending up being the game’s winning strike. The Ivorian has scored just once in his 11 Premier League games against Everton, and has never been on the winning side against the Toffees.
● Everton manager Rafael Benítez has lost 12 of his last 17 Premier League away games against London sides (W3 D2), with both draws in that run coming at Crystal Palace. It’s just one fewer defeat than he suffered in his first 30 such games in the competition (W12 D5 L13).
● Seven of Everton’s last 11 Premier League goals in London have been scored by Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who will miss this match with an injury. The other four were scored by Richarlison (2), Abdoulaye Doucouré (1) and a Bernd Leno own goal.
