PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews the two Premier League games on Sunday – both at 2pm. It’s Liverpool v Brentford and West Ham v Leeds both previewed with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
LIVERPOOL V BRENTFORD
2pm We have two cracking games at 2pm to make up for the original 4.30pm Spurs v Arsenal being postponed – it’s going to be a very interesting afternoon on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We start with Liverpool hosting Brentford, and hopefully we can see a repeat of the 3-3 classic we had between the sides earlier in the season. Liverpool are going to be without some of their stars here due to the African Cup of Nations at the moment, and as I said in my preview of their Carabao Cup game on Thursday against Arsenal, I’m keen to keep stakes a little low until we can get an informed opinion on their level of play without the likes of Salah and Mane. I have to say, it wasn’t an impressive start on Thursday against Arsenal – they couldn’t take advantage of Arsenal being down to ten men after 24 minutes and played out a 0-0 draw. You’re never going to be able to replace the players Liverpool have lost, but you also have to consider that their strength in depth is the worst out of the Top Four.
With that in mind, it’s going to be an interesting few weeks for Liverpool. Their squad will be tested, and I’m sure they will have a handful of disappointing results. We might not find out too much in this game given the gulf in class between the sides, but Brentford have impressed me in the Premier League this season. They have been a lot more comfortable at home, and they might find this very difficult but I was surprised to see Liverpool trading as short as 1.33 when I clicked into the market. Brentford did put in a very disappointing performance away from home midweek against Southampton, and as I said they do have a lower standard of play away from home. Liverpool will likely win here, but I wouldn’t touch the 1.33. Given the fact both sides like to play an open game and Liverpool won’t have their best XI, over 2.5 goals is worth a small investment at 1.69. Brentford can get on the score sheet here I feel, and we should see an end-to-end game. I’m happy to keep stakes limited on Liverpool games at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQLivbre
MATCH STATS
● This is the first time Liverpool are hosting Brentford in any competition since March 1989, a 4-0 win in an FA Cup quarter-final tie. They last hosted the Bees in a league match back in October 1946, winning 1-0.
● Brentford have lost their last five away games against Liverpool in all competitions by an aggregate score of 12-1, with their last win against the Reds at Anfield coming back in November 1937 (4-3).
● After a 14-game winning run, Liverpool have failed to win either of their last two Premier League home games against promoted sides, drawing against West Bromwich Albion and losing against Fulham last season. The last went three without a win in such matches between December 2000 and January 2002.
● Only one of the last 17 teams playing at Anfield in the Premier League for the first time have won (D5 L11), with Blackpool winning 2-1 in October 2010. 12 of those sides have failed to score, including each of the last three: Bournemouth (0-1), Huddersfield (0-3) and Brighton (0-4).
● Following a six-game winning run in November/December, Liverpool are winless in their last three Premier League games (D2 L1), giving away a lead in both of those draws. However, at home the Reds are unbeaten in 13 in the Premier League (W9 D4), winning each of the last four in a row.
● Liverpool have lost their first home league game in just one of the last 16 calendar years (W9 D6), going down 3-2 against Swansea City in 2017.
● Half of Liverpool’s Premier League draws (3/6), defeats (1/2) and goals conceded (9/18) have come in games played on Sundays this season, despite the Reds playing just six of their 20 games so far on this day.
● Brentford have won three of their six Premier League games played on Sundays (D1 L2) – of all teams to have played at least five games on the day, they’re one of just four to have won at least half of their games along with Man Utd (165/301), Chelsea (137/270) and Arsenal (151/300).
● Liverpool’s Diogo Jota has scored four goals in his last four Premier League home games, having netted just once in his previous 12 at Anfield before this.
● Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has scored four goals in his last three Premier League games against promoted sides, including a hat-trick against Watford in his last such appearance. The Brazilian had only netted four goals in his previous 27 games against such sides in the competition.
WEST HAM V LEEDS
2pm We have a repeat fixture of the FA Cup Third Round here as West Ham host Leeds. As I said in Saturday’s preview, it’s funny how the fixture list throws up these situations every season! Aston Villa had home advantage instead of Manchester United in that game, but this is a completely replay as West Ham also had home advantage in the FA Cup. They ran out smooth 2-0 winners, and they followed that up with another smooth 2-0 win over Norwich midweek in the Premier League. Obviously Norwich are a very limited side, but West Ham were in complete control – with Arsenal away to Spurs later, this is a good chance for them to get back into pole position for that fourth spot. However, with Spurs have two games in hand over Arsenal, perhaps the best result is an Arsenal win or a draw for West Ham in the long-term. To be honest, there isn’t much in the difference between Arsenal and Spurs as to who the main danger is! We all know how many issues Leeds have had at the back this season, and they should struggle again here – this West Ham side have been excellent going forward, and it’s hard to see how Leeds can stop them from scoring.
Leeds would have been delighted to win that massive game against Burnley just after New Years, and they haven’t played in the Premier League since. It looks like they have broken away a little from the bottom four, and they are unlikely to go down now. They aren’t fully out of the relegation battle, but they can breathe easy for the moment. We landed a nice bet on West Ham to beat Leeds in the FA Cup, and we can do the same here. The Hammers look great value at 1.69 and they are very much worth backing in my opinion. I look at the underlining numbers here and only see one winner – Leeds are giving away so many chances this season, and West Ham have been creating good xG figures. You put everything together here and you only get one winner – West Ham are a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Four points win West Ham to beat Leeds at 1.69 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQWeslee
MATCH STATS
● West Ham have won their last three league games against Leeds, more than they had in their previous 28 against them (W2 D8 L18). They last won four in a row against the Whites between April 1948 and August 1949 in the second tier.
● Leeds lost 2-0 in this exact fixture last season but haven’t lost consecutive league visits to West Ham since December 1974.
● West Ham have won just five of their 23 Premier League games against Leeds (D4 L14), with three of these coming in their last three meetings in the competition.
● Leeds have failed to win their first away league match in each of the last 12 years (D3 L9), losing 3-0 at Spurs last year. They last won their first away league game in 2009, beating Brighton 2-0 in League One with goals from Lee Trundle and Fabian Delph.
● West Ham have lost three of their five Premier League home games played on Sundays this season (W2), with the winning goals in these matches being scored in the 89th, 90th and 70th minutes respectively. These five games have produced 17 goals in total (3.4 per game), and all have been won by a single goal.
● Following their 3-1 win against Burnley in their last league game, Leeds are looking to win consecutive Premier League matches for the first time since winning their final four in 2020-21. However, the Whites’ only away win so far this term was at bottom side Norwich in October.
● Leeds have conceded 10 goals in their last two away league games (2-3 vs Chelsea, 0-7 vs Man City), just one fewer than they had in their first seven on the road this term.
● Among all managers to take charge of at least five Premier League games against Leeds, West Ham boss David Moyes has the best win percentage (86%), winning six of seven games against the Whites. He has also managed the most games against them without losing of any manager in Premier League history (seven).
● Under Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds have lost seven of their eight away Premier League matches in London (W1), a loss percentage of 88%. Among managers to have taken charge of at least five away games in the capital, only Nigel Pearson – who lost nine out of nine – has a worse losing ratio than the Argentinian.
● Leeds’ Raphinha has scored the opening goal in more different Premier League games than any other player so far this season (6). He’s been the goalscorer 60% of the times the Whites have netted first in the competition this term (6/10).
