RUSSELL VALUE FOR A THREE-ROUND KNOCK-OUT: Kai Broon (WON 11-10) set the Shamrock trio rolling yesterday in magnificent style and is clearly a horse to follow. Today, back home at Thurles, our man in Ireland finds Betdaq value is on the side of Davy Russell in a three-race old-firm battle between Russell and Ruby Walsh.
This is a contest of three rounds. In the champion’s corner, on 38 wins, weighing in at 10st 8lb, Davy Russell. The challenger, weighing 10st 1lb, on 29 wins, is Ruby Walsh. That’s how they stand in five seasons at Thurles.
4.45 Thurles (round 1): It’s experience versus potential as Davy rides Big Game Hunter, who was placed twice over fences in March, including when blinkers were tried and has seemed one paced.
But those runs were on heavy ground and conditions are quite different today for Gigginstown’s highly rated ex-hurdler, who looks big at 5.1, as I write.
Shifa is a hot favourite, since the mare is trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby, but this is her chasing debut. A hurdles win on good ground at Gowran suggests she will enjoy today’s terrain but, at the odds, I can only back her as a stakes saver.
5.45 Thurles (round 2): This time Russell rides the hot-pot, Berties Dream, and it’s worrying that trainer Henry De Bromhead has drawn a blank in the last two weeks.
But ‘Bertie’ is rated 16lb ahead of the Mullins-Walsh hope, Maggie Connolly, and we are talking about a horse which won the 2010 Albert Bartlett and was only eight lengths behind Big Buck’s in the 2011 World Hurdle.
Both ‘Bertie’ and ‘Maggie’ have won on a sound surface and it’s a question of whether Bertie’s Dream retains his speed, back to hurdling from a chasing career which brought him a win here at Thurles.
This race is something of an experiment with Maggie Connolly trying 3m for the first time, so I have to go along with Davy Russell again.
6.15 Thurles (round 3): Ruby’s really on the ropes and has to give his rival, Russell on Shrapnel, 8lb here on Lord Gale, even though he’s rated 5lb behind.
Impossible to go against a 13lb deficit, yet Shrapnel is easier to back at 4.1 against Lord Gale’s 3.05 this morning. Surely it can’t be a 3-0 knockout to Russell? It certainly is on Betdaq value. Shrapnel and Big Game Hunter are so big, they can be backed win and place, the place to save most, if not all, the win stake.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Bertie’s Dream (5.45 Thurles)
WIN AND PLACE: Big Game Hunter (4.45 Thurles) and Shrapnel (6.15 Thurles)
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