15.5 BETDAQ OFFERS ABOUT A FILLY TO WOW VOW IN THE OAKS: Daqman challenges Pricewise head on today, with an Epsom Oaks bet at 15.5 against the 6.6 available about the filly put up by the trade-paper’s value tipster. Daqman says there’s too much ‘Maybe’ and potential ‘Kissed of death’ to be taking any short prices.
I am directly opposing Pricewise today. I prefer another filly for the Oaks from the same trial won by his selection, Vow. I’m talking about Colima.
Vow and Colima, both sired by Derby-winning sons of Montjeu, ran different races in the Lingfield Oaks Trial: Vow (by Motivator) was in the ‘van’ most of the way and able to kick on in the straight.
Colima (by Authorized) ran more of an Epsom race: she sat out the back, waited with, her rider, Jim Crowley, standing upright in the irons, his hands resting on her withers, until the final bend, when he nudged her to go forward.
Despite the slowly run race, and only one swing of the whip, she scythed through the field, straight as a gun-barrel, head down, while Vow, who had scooted to the front, wandered around like a more typical Montjeu.
Colima’s trainer, Ralph Beckett, produced Look Here (2008) to win her Oaks after also being runner-up in the same trial, again coasting her round at the back of the field for much of the race.
But Look Here was not a bit straightforward in that trial, dropping out when ‘asked’ and having to be brought to challenge again. Apart from her reminder in the straight, Colima was always well within herself and stretched beautifully when the race was on or, rather, when it was really over, with Vow having already got it in the bag.
There will be a different race at Epsom, a different track and different ground, whether or not the weather relents, since the Lingfield trial had to be run on Polytrack not turf.
But the big difference that I’m on to is the current price: while Vow is offered at 6.6 on BETDAQ this morning Colima, though 10-1 with Corals, is 15.5. I’ll have a bit of that.
The bookies might be more favourable to Colima punters but their books contain potential Ballydoyle non-runners Homecoming Queen (as low as 6-1 but goes for the Irish 1,000 Guineas) and Up, now heading for the Prix De Diane in France. Their 20.0 and 48.0 offers tell the true story on BETDAQ.
But we still have to beat Ballydoyle at Epsom: for me, not with Maybe but with one of my horses to follow, Kissed. She could be the kiss of death to the Lingfield-trial protagonists.
There is no particular value in Kissed right now but I’m hoping that the trials to come (tomorrow’s Musidora and Goodwood) will produce winners that catch the eye and ease the front of the market a bit.
Today’s the day for a draw bet: the first six winners on Beverley’s corresponding card last year were all posted in one to six, with four of them in stall one itself. Bad as Chester!
The opener (2.00) produced a cracker last year, in subsequent Gimcrack and Mill Reef winner, Caspar Netscher, who was making his debut.
With the Easterbys setting a puzzle by hogging four of the five low stalls today, I’ll content myself by laying the favourite, Fly Fisher, in stall 8, and already beaten by one trained Kevin Ryan, whose debutant Panana Cat has the plum one box.
Old Highland Warrior won the sprint handicap (3.00) last term and again has a handy stall but is giving away nine years to some of these; Mercer’s Row seems to be a once-a-season horse, and Select Committee hasn’t won before July since 2008.
I fancy Diamond Blue (4.6 on BETDAQ), who has had a run and has a weight turnaround with Select Committee, but they may be wrong to ignore Lady Kildare (a huge 19.0); she won first time out in 2011 and her dam has several soft-ground winners currently running for her.
Cheviot Quest (3.30) suggested by his late work on the soft in a Nottingham handicap that today’s trip would suit the Sir Percy gelding.
Those drawn low new to handicapping have shown nothing so far, and I can’t fancy the well-exposed Margo Channing. Bridgehampton – first run after being gelded – looks the likely threat.
You also need a low draw on your side at Kempton Park tonight, and I’m looking for some value in the sprint (6.50): the favourites, Cut Across and Proper Charlie, are installed out in the car park, as is Mawjoodah.
Rifflessione and Links Drive Lady are bridesmaids, so I’m hoping to see a bit of that flamboyant flair from Mickael Barzalona, with Spin Again well drawn to attack this field, knowing that he has some stamina under him (has won twice over 7f): you could get 7.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
I thought another bridesmaid, Perfect Delight (7.50), might ease from 1.72 this morning so I took an early-doors opportunity to lay her, and take 6.6 Moonglow and 8.2 Dedication to beat her.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
LAY to win 10pts FLY FISHER (2.00 Beverley)
BET 5.5pts win DIAMOND BLUE and 1.1pts win and place LADY KILDARE (3.00 Beverley)
BET 4pts win CHEVIOT QUEST and 1.1pts win (stakes saver) BRIDGEHAMPTON (3.30 Beverley)
BET 2.9pts win (nap) SPIN AGAIN (6.50 Kempton)
LAY to win 10pts PERFECT DELIGHT and BET 3.5pts win MOONGLOW and 2.7pts win DEDICATION (7.50 Kempton)
ANTE-POST: WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 2pts win COLIMA (15.5, Oaks Stakes, Epsom, June 1).
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points (unless otherwise stated) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing.
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