PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to the two Premier League games on New Year’s Day with match previews, FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
TOTTENHAM V ASTON VILLA
2pm 2023 begins on BETDAQ Betting Exchange just as 2022 finished; with some excellent Premier League action! We have two very interesting markets on Sunday afternoon with Spurs and Chelsea trading within one tick of each other at the time of writing – I’m sure there will be plenty of debate who is the better value bet! We kick off the day with Spurs hosting Aston Villa – both sides had disappointing results as they returned to action on Boxing Day. Aston Villa have had a tough return to the Premier League having to play Liverpool on Boxing Day and now Spurs – they face an easier face next week with Wolves. Spurs are looking over their shoulders now in the race for a Top Four finish after dropping more points against Brentford on Boxing Day. They are only one point ahead of Manchester City and five ahead of Liverpool, however both Manchester United and Liverpool both have games in hand. They will probably be more worried about Liverpool than Manchester United and hope Newcastle fall out of the Top Four but Newcastle are flying at the moment. If Spurs keep dropping points it will be interesting to see what kind of reaction we get from Conte – will he fall out with any players etc. A fascinating few weeks lies ahead.
Despite losing 3-1 to Liverpool on Boxing Day, Villa didn’t play too badly. They created an xG of 1.7 and you can forgive them losing to Liverpool to be honest – they just aren’t at the same level. It’s very early days, but the early signs are that Emery has improved Villa – they have been involved in a lot of high scoring games lately; as have Spurs too! I don’t have a strong opinion on Spurs here at 1.74 and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market. Over 2.5 goals really stands out here at 1.81. Spurs have been conceding a lot of sloppy goals this season, and they have been involved in a lot of dramatic games too. You can add Brentford to that list, coming from 2-0 down for a 2-2 draw. Villa were more attacking than I expected against Liverpool, and with the amount of goals Spurs have conceded this season I don’t think Emery will be afraid of going toe-to-toe with Spurs. I felt we might see Over 2.5 goals trading closer to 1.6, and I’m happy to have a Max Bet at 1.81 – I can only see a very open game here!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.81 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotAvl
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Tottenham have won 12 of their last 14 Premier League games against Aston Villa (L2), as many as they had in their first 40 against them in the competition (D15 L13).
● Aston Villa have won just two of their last 21 Premier League games against Tottenham (D3 L16), though both victories in that time have come away from home (April 2015, May 2021).
● Aston Villa have lost each of their last five Premier League games in London, conceding at least twice each time. Meanwhile, they’ve not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 league visits to the capital, since beating Arsenal 3-0 in November 2020.
● Tottenham have won seven of their last eight Premier League games on New Year’s Day, with the exception being a 1-0 loss at Southampton in 2020.
● Tottenham have conceded the first goal, and also conceded at least twice in each of their last six Premier League games. They last had a longer streak of conceding first in November 2010 (7 games), while they last conceded 2+ goals in more consecutive league games in November 1988 (8 games).
● No player has scored more Premier League goals on New Year’s Day than Tottenham’s Harry Kane (5). He also has three assists on 1st January in the competition, giving him more goal involvements than any other player on the day (8).
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery is unbeaten in all three of his Premier League meetings with Tottenham, winning 4-2 in December 2018, before draws in March 2019 (1-1) and September 2019 (2-2).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has scored six headed goals in the Premier League this season, more than any other player. It’s his joint-most headers scored in a single campaign (also six in 2017-18), while his 36 headed goals overall is the joint sixth most in Premier League history.
● Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins has scored in both of his Premier League away games against Tottenham; only two English players have scored in three consecutive visits to Spurs in the competition – Daniel Sturridge (3 from 2011-2012) and Dion Dublin (5 from 1995-2000).
● None of Aston Villa boss Unai Emery’s 54 Premier League games have finished 0-0, with no manager taking charge of more games without a goalless draw (Ossie Ardiles also 54). 70% of the Spaniard’s games have seen both teams score (38/54), the highest ratio of any manager to take charge of 50+ games.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V CHELSEA
4.30pm We have another interesting market here as Nottingham Forest host Chelsea. There’s been a huge amount of question marks around Chelsea this season, but they re-started their season with a smooth 2-0 win over Bournemouth on Tuesday. They took that lead into the break, and were able to ease off in the second half. The jury is still definitely out on whether or not it was a good decision to sack Thomas Tuchel and replace him with Graham Potter, but they have had a pretty easy fixture list to return. Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest are both trading odds on to get relegated this season, so Chelsea couldn’t have been given a handier re-start. If they don’t get another three points here then alarm bells might start ringing, especially with a tough fixture list coming up – they have to host Manchester City next week. Nottingham Forest return to action on Tuesday as well, losing 3-0 away to Manchester United. They have spent a lot of money this season and have a very big squad – they still haven’t really found a working system though as they sit in the bottom three and they are conceding close to two goals per game. You simply don’t win many games with those stats.
I wouldn’t be a massive fan of Chelsea this season, for me they just haven’t really got going and Potter hasn’t improved or changed their performances when you look at the xG figures. However, it’s hard to ignore them here at 1.75. I just feel that’s ten ticks too big based on the gulf in class between the sides. I fully accept the fact that Chelsea haven’t fired this season, so I’m going to keep stakes limited because of that, but they really should get the job done here and be trading shorter. Not only do Nottingham Forest have issues at the back, they have issues going forward too as they are creating a very low xG figure of close to 1, and converting even less. Chelsea have their own issues up front because their average xG created is only 1.3 which simply isn’t big enough for a side like them, but they will be given plenty of chances here by this sloppy Nottingham Forest side and the 1.75 is worth backing.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Chelsea to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NotChe
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This is the first time Nottingham Forest are hosting Chelsea in any competition since February 1999, and a 3-1 loss in the Premier League.
● Chelsea have won their last seven meetings with Nottingham Forest in all competitions, with this the first match between the pair since January 2020 (2-0 in the FA Cup).
● Chelsea have lost just one of their last 11 away league games against promoted sides (W8 D2), going down 3-0 at Sheffield United in July 2020.
● Nottingham Forest have won their first league game in each of the last four calendar years, including two New Year’s Day victories over Leeds (2019) and Blackburn Rovers (2020).
● Chelsea haven’t won their first league game in any of the last six calendar years (D4 L2). They last had a longer winless run in their opening game of a year between 1929 and 1938 (10 – D4 L6).
● Nottingham Forest are looking to win consecutive Premier League home games within the same season for the first time since their final two of the campaign at the City Ground in May 1999. Each of their last six home wins in the top-flight has seen them keep a clean sheet – they’ve not won any of their last 26 when conceding at least once (D11 L15) since a 2-1 win over Spurs in January 1997.
● Chelsea have lost their last three away games in all competitions, last losing four in a row on the road in January/February 2019 under Maurizio Sarri.
● Nottingham Forest have won 11 of their 19 Premier League games in January, their best win rate in a single month in the competition (58%). Indeed, only Manchester United (65%) have won a higher share of their January games than Forest in Premier League history.
● Welsh managers are winless in their last 11 Premier League matches against Chelsea, losing each of the last nine in a row (D2). The last one to beat the Blues was Mark Hughes’ Stoke in November 2015, while Nottingham Forest’s Steve Cooper could be the first Welshman to win his first Premier League meeting with Chelsea since Mike Walker in August 1992 (2-1 with Norwich).
● Chelsea’s Raheem Sterling has been involved in 10 goals in his last 11 Premier League away games against promoted sides (8 goals, 2 assists), netting a hat-trick in his last such game at Norwich in February last season.
