PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to the Premier League game on Monday between BRENTFORD v LIVERPOOL with match previews, FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
5.30pm The Premier League action just keeps coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as Brentford host Liverpool on Monday. This is more Monday evening football rather than Monday night football with the kickoff time of 5-30pm, but we have a fascinating game ahead. Brentford have returned to action in good form with a 2-2 draw against Spurs and a smooth 2-0 win away to West Ham on Friday night, while Liverpool made it two wins from two games on Friday night as well in typical Liverpool fashion conceding but outscoring their opposition.
It’s still very clear that Liverpool have major issues at the back in my opinion, and it will be interesting to see can they keep a clean sheet here. They conceded an xG of 1.7 to Aston Villa and then 1.31 to Leicester – in general they have just given away too many chances this season and conceded too many sloppy goals. For a side who started the season as major title contenders, they are conceding an average xG of 1.6 per Premier League game this season which is very, very high for a side like them. Obviously they are fantastic going forward which counters how bad they are at the back, but conceding that many chances per game is more like a stat from a side in the bottom three!
Liverpool come into the game as the odds on favourites – they are currently trading 1.59 at the time of writing. I feel that’s a fair value price, and I don’t see any action in the match odds market here. Brentford are pretty good at home, and they tend to create a lot more in front of their own fans. I wouldn’t be rushing to back Liverpool here at the odds, especially when they are giving away so many chances this season.
I think this game screams goals. Liverpool are average nearly 4 goals per game they are involved in on average and Brentford’s average xG of games they have been involved in is 3.3. Brentford have been a very entertaining side this season – their average xG created is 1.7 and conceded is just a shade under Liverpool’s at 1.5. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.62 at the moment, and at just three ticks over the Liverpool price I feel that is by far the best option here. I thought we’d see Over 2.5 goals trading close to 1.5 given the stats and how both sides play – the 1.62 is worth a Max Bet in my opinion, it’s hard not to see goals here!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreLiv
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brentford are winless in their last nine meetings with Liverpool in all competitions (D2 L7) since a 2-1 home win in November 1938.
● In a run stretching back to October 1983, Liverpool have scored at least three goals in each of their last five meetings with Brentford in all competitions. The only team they’ve scored 3+ goals in six consecutive games against is Fulham, doing so between 1986 and 2000.
● Liverpool have scored at least once in each of their last 26 away Premier League matches in London, scoring 56 times in a run stretching back to August 2018 (W15 D8 L3). It’s the longest ever run of consecutive scoring games by a non-London side in away league games in the capital since the creation of the Football League in 1888 in any division.
● Brentford have won their opening league game in each of the last three calendar years – only once before have they done so in four consecutive years, doing so between 1929 and 1932.
● Liverpool have only won their opening league game in two of the last eight calendar years (D3 L3), beating Burnley 2-1 in 2018 and Sheffield United 2-0 in 2020.
● Brentford have drawn their last three home Premier League matches, only one fewer than they’d done in their first 24 on home soil in the competition beforehand (W10 D4 L10). The Bees last drew four consecutively at home in the league in March/April 2021.
● In all competitions, Liverpool have won 23 of their 49 games in the month of January under Jürgen Klopp (47%), their lowest win rate in a particular month under the German. They have also lost more games in January during his tenure (14) than in any other month.
● Liverpool forward Darwin Núñez has had 23 shots in his five away Premier League appearances, attempting a shot every 17 minutes, although he has only converted two of those attempts (9%). It’s the most shots attempted by a player in their first five away appearances in the competition since Santi Cazorla, who also had 23 in 2012 for Arsenal.
● Mohamed Salah has scored 19 goals in 38 Premier League appearances in London (two in nine games for Chelsea, 17 in 29 for Liverpool). He’s scored 73 goals on Merseyside (70 at Anfield, 3 at Goodison) and could become the second player to net 20+ Premier League goals in both London and Merseyside, after Louis Saha (31 in London, 20 on Merseyside).
● Mohamed Salah has been directly involved in four goals in his last two away Premier League appearances (3 goals, 1 assist), and has netted 55 away Premier League goals for Liverpool. Another goal will see him become their record away scorer in the competition, with the Egyptian currently level with Michael Owen.
● Brentford forward Ivan Toney has been directly involved in 16 goals in his last 19 Premier League appearances at the Brentford Community Stadium (12 goals, 4 assists). Since the Bees began playing there in 2020-21, Toney has scored 29 goals at the stadium in all competitions, 19 more than any other player.
