PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to the Premier League fixtures on Tuesday with match previews, FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
ARSENAL V NEWCASTLE
7.45pm The Premier League fixtures just keep on coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange, and we have another bumper evening ahead on Tuesday. We have four intriguing fixtures to enjoy, and we kick the evening off with Arsenal hosting Newcastle. This looks to be the pick of the four games this evening, and with Newcastle playing some excellent football this season it should be a good test for league leaders Arsenal. It’s been a fantastic re-start of the season for Arsenal so far – they haven’t put a foot wrong and Manchester City dropped more points at the weekend with a 1-1 draw at home against Everton. Arsenal now have a seven point lead at the top of the table, and it’s looking like the title race is going to go all the way this season! Not many football fans were taking this Arsenal title challenge seriously, but it’s getting very serious now! They are playing full of confidence at the moment, and I feel Manchester City will probably need Arsenal to start slipping up and dropping points soon. It seems to be City not coping with the pressure rather than the other way around.
Newcastle also dropped points at the weekend having to settle for a 0-0 draw against Leeds. It was an unlucky result for Newcastle who created an xG of 2.85 compared to Leeds 0.53 – they should have won, but just didn’t take their chances. You’d imagine this will be a very entertaining game given both sides have been creating so much this season. Over 2.5 goals is trading 1.89 and that definitely looks like a decent value bet. Arsenal are a couple of ticks shorter at 1.85, and while they have been excellent football this season – indeed they landed a Max Bet in their game on Saturday for us – that price looks a little short against an in-form Newcastle side. Newcastle have stats like proper title contenders, although just finishing in the Top Four would be a massive achievement for them. I feel they’ll make this one closer than the odds suggest, however I can’t get away from Over 2.5 goals here at 1.89. We have two sides who have been creating chances for fun – we landed a Max Bet on Overs in the Arsenal game at the weekend and we can do the same here!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsNew
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Arsenal have won their last 11 home games against Newcastle in all competitions – only against Stoke (an ongoing run since 1983) have they ever won more consecutive home matches (16).
● Newcastle beat Arsenal 2-0 in their last Premier League meeting in May, last winning consecutive league games against the Gunners between May 1994 and January 1996 (a run of four).
● Newcastle have won their last two Premier League games in London, last winning more consecutively in the capital between May 2013 and January 2014 (4). Having beaten Tottenham 2-1 in October, they’re looking to win away at both north London sides in a single Premier League campaign for the first time since 2001-02.
● Arsenal have kept 28 clean sheets against Newcastle in the Premier League – only Manchester United (29 against Tottenham) have recorded more against a specific opponent in the competition.
● Arsenal lost 2-1 against Manchester City on New Year’s Day 2022 – they’ve not lost their opening league game in consecutive calendar years since 1995/1996, the latter of which was against Newcastle.
● Newcastle have won their first league game in just one of the last 10 calendar years (D2 L7), beating Stoke City 1-0 in 2018.
● Arsenal are the only team with a 100% winning record in home Premier League games this season, winning all seven games at the Emirates. The Gunners are looking to win their opening eight home matches in a top-flight season for the first time, while their current home winning run stands at 10 in a row, last winning more consecutively between April and November 2017 (12).
● Newcastle forward Callum Wilson has scored six goals in eight Premier League games in London with the Magpies, only failing to score at the Emirates against Arsenal (2 games). Only Alan Shearer and Peter Beardsley (9 goals each) have more Premier League goals in London for Newcastle than Wilson.
● Arsenal striker Eddie Nketiah has scored in his last three home Premier League starts, netting four goals, and has scored 11 goals in his last 11 starts at the Emirates in all competitions, scoring those goals from just 16 shots on target.
● Newcastle manager Eddie Howe has lost all six of his away Premier League matches against Arsenal (five defeats with Bournemouth, one with Newcastle) by an aggregate score of 16-2. One of the two goals his teams have scored came via current Magpies forward Callum Wilson in a 3-1 defeat with Bournemouth in November 2016.
EVERTON V BRIGHTON
7.45pm Next we have two sides who were involved in the two fixtures that meant Arsenal went seven points clear at the weekend. Everton managed to somehow get a point away to Manchester City and Arsenal beat Brighton 4-2 in a very entertaining game. You could have guessed this, but Everton were very lucky to pick up a point at the weekend – that doesn’t change the fact they battled well and it does have a big impact on the title race. The reality is Everton just aren’t even close to being at the same level as Manchester City, so they are always going to have to grind out a result while being out-played. They finished the game with an xG of just 0.09 and conceded 2.32, but it was a massive point. That point might be the difference in the relegation battle too – completely unexpected with to Manchester City! The loss against Wolves on Boxing Day has put Everton under a lot of pressure again in the relegation battle, and it’s hard to see them not being in the mix with the likes of Wolves and Southampton – everything fancies Bournemouth to go backwards too but at the moment they are one point ahead of Everton. Bournemouth have to go to Old Trafford later tonight, so this is probably a good opportunity for Everton to try get past them.
Brighton will obviously have something to say about that though, as they have been playing great football this season. It was a massive setback losing Graham Potter because he did such a good job for them, but they are still playing well. They were out-gunned by Arsenal at the weekend, but there’s no shame in that. Brighton have an average xG of 1.8 per game this season, and it’s clear that they have a lot of talent going forward. You can see that they still have issues at the back because their xG conceded is a little high for their liking at 1.4. Everton have been very poor at the back, and that’s where most of their problems come from. In my opinion we have two options for our best bet here – Over 2.5 goals at 2.07 and Brighton at 2.2. I feel if Over 2.5 goals lands we will see Brighton do most of the work however, so for that reason I feel Brighton at 2.2 is the best option here. They should create far more than Everton here.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Everton at 2.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveBri
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton have won four of their five Premier League home games against Brighton (80%), though they did lose this exact fixture last season. Of all sides they’ve faced at least five times at home in the competition, only against Fulham do they have a higher win rate (93%).
● Brighton won this exact fixture 3-2 last season, having failed to win any of their other nine away games against Everton in all competitions (D2 L7).
● Everton have lost their first league game in each of the last five calendar years, including a 3-2 home loss to Brighton in 2022. It’s their longest such run since losing their first league game in seven consecutive years between 1957 and 1963.
● Brighton have lost their first league game in just one of the last 13 calendar years (W7 D5), losing 1-0 at home to Wolves in 2016.
● Everton have lost three of their last four home Premier League matches (W1), losing the last two in a row. The Toffees last lost three in a row at Goodison Park in February 2021, while Frank Lampard hasn’t lost three home games in a row in the Premier League as a player or manager since March 2001, when he played for West Ham, playing 90 minutes in defeats to Chelsea, Ipswich and Everton.
● Brighton have never won away from home on a Tuesday in the Premier League in nine previous attempts (D2 L7). Their last away top-flight win on this day of the week was in March 1983 against Swansea, winning 2-1 with goals from Michael Robinson and Jimmy Case.
● Brighton and Hove Albion have won their last two away Premier League games, beating Wolves and Southampton. It’s the seventh time the Seagulls have won consecutive away games since promotion in 2017 but they’ve never won three in a row in the Premier League or top-flight on the road.
● Everton have lost three of their last five Premier League matches when scoring first at Goodison Park (W2), including last time out against Wolves. Before this, the Toffees had only lost three of their previous 42 home league games when scoring first (W34 D5).
● Everton’s Frank Lampard has never lost against Brighton in a Premier League match (W2 D1), only facing Crystal Palace more often without losing in the competition as a manager (P5 W5). He did, however, lose an FA Cup match against them back in February 2019, when he was Derby County manager.
● Brighton midfielder Adam Lallana has scored in each of his last two away Premier League appearances, netting twice, one more than in his previous 60 away games in the competition. However, he’s never scored in 13 appearances and with 16 attempts at goal against Everton in the Premier League.
LEICESTER V FULHAM
7.45pm We finish the 7-45pm kick offs with Leicester hosting Fulham. This should be an interesting game. Leicester have re-started their season with two losses but they have had a difficult fixture list against Newcastle and Liverpool. After sitting in the bottom three for so long, the World Cup came at the wrong time for Leicester. They had put a few wins together, and they were starting to play some good football too. They finally recorded a higher xG figure than they conceded in their two wins away to West Ham and Everton before the World Cup. As we know though, West Ham and Everton have been struggling this season. Fulham went into the World Cup off the back of two losses to Manchester City and Manchester United, but they would have been absolutely delighted to be sitting in mid-table after being one the sides in the mix to go down this season. After re-stating their season with two impressive wins against Crystal Palace and Southampton, any relegation talk is now long gone. This should be a pretty good game, and I expect a close game too.
I was surprised to see Leicester trading as short as 2.32 when I clicked into the market. I felt we’d see a much more open betting heat, and it’s hard to get away from the Leicester lay from a value point of view. In my opinion they just haven’t played well enough to jusify those odds – especially with Fulham having a good season. The only thing I would say about Fulham is that they have been conceding a lot of chances. Their average xG conceded this season is as high as 2.0, but they are creating chances going forward with an average of 1.6 attacking. Leicester have been very average at the back too, and they have only been creating an average xG of 1.1 going forward. We could see plenty of goals in this game given both sides are so poor at the back, but I’m still sticking with my Leicester lay at 2.32. I expect Fulham to get a result here – over all they are playing the better football and Leicester have been pretty average this season.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Leicester to beat Fulham at 2.32 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiFul
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Having won none of their first five Premier League meetings with Fulham (D3 L2), Leicester have now won two of their last three against them (L1).
● Fulham won 2-1 at Leicester in their last league visit to the King Power Stadium, last winning consecutive away league games against the Foxes in September 1967.
● Leicester lost 2-1 at Bournemouth in October, ending a run of nine consecutive Premier League victories against promoted sides. They last lost consecutive such matches in November 2020/January 2021, one of which was a home defeat to Fulham; the other was against Leeds United.
● Leicester have lost their first league game in just one of the last 14 calendar years (W9 D4), though it was a 3-2 loss against Tottenham in 2022.
● Fulham won 7-0 at Reading in their first league game of 2022, last winning their opening match in consecutive calendar years between 2012 and 2014 (a run of three).
● Leicester have lost their last two home Premier League matches, last losing more consecutively at the King Power between December 2018 and February 2019 under Claude Puel (four). The Foxes haven’t lost three in a row at home without scoring in the top-flight since August/September 1983.
● Fulham have won three of their last five away Premier League matches (L2), scoring three goals in every victory, although none of these wins have come consecutively. The Cottagers last won consecutive away Premier League games in the same season in April/May 2011 under Mark Hughes.
● Fulham have won just one of their last 23 away Premier League matches in the month of January (D6 L16), a 2-1 win over West Brom on New Year’s Day in 2013. 85% of their Premier League wins in January have come at Craven Cottage (17/20).
● Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has won eight of his nine Premier League matches against Fulham (L1); against no side has he won more. He did, however, lose his last home game against them in November 2020.
● Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored four goals in his last five away Premier League appearances, with Fulham winning the last three away games when he’s featured. Only one Fulham player has ever ended on the winning side in four consecutive away Premier League appearances, with Diomansy Kamara doing so between April 2008 and April 2009.
MANCHESTER UNITED V BOURNEMOUTH
8pm We finish Tuesday evening with Manchester United hosting Bournemouth. It was a great weekend for United which saw them jump over Spurs into fourth place in the table. On paper, this is another “easy” fixture for United which they should win. The market agrees, with United trading as short as 1.3 at the time of writing. As we saw with Manchester City at the weekend though – nothing is straightforward these days in the Premier League – City were as short as 1.18 to beat Everton. United have started life without Ronaldo nicely with a smooth 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest and a hard fought 1-0 win away to Wolves the weekend. That Wolves game wasn’t their best performance, but they grinded out a win and that was something that was lacking before ten Hag took charge. With Spurs dropping points the weekend losing to Aston Villa, United moved two points ahead of Spurs and they have a game in hand too. Newcastle also dropped points at the weekend, so United are only two points behind them with a game in hand too. United are definitely in a good position for a Top Four finish, and now that all the Ronaldo drama is behind them they seem to be heading in the right direction.
It’s very hard to see past a United win here, but you don’t get any prizes for tipping 1.3 shots. We’ll have to look around the side markets for some value here in the goal markets and the handicap markets. Bournemouth have re-started their season with two 2-0 losses against Chelsea and Crystal Palace, and they were poor in both games. Especially the Crystal Palace one as Palace haven’t been firing this season – Bournemouth were completely outplayed with home advantage too. Bournemouth’s stats are very poor – they are conceding close to two goals per game and creating one – it’s no wonder they are trading odds on to go down even when they aren’t in the bottom three at the moment. United should control the game here, and they can keep another clean sheet too. Bournemouth haven’t been great away from home this season, so I’m happy to back Both Teams Not To Score at 1.86.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MunBou
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have won seven of their 10 Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (D1 L2), with both defeats against them coming at the Vitality Stadium.
● Bournemouth have lost eight of their nine away games against Manchester United in all competitions, with the exception being a 1-1 draw in the Premier League in March 2017.
● Bournemouth have never won away from home in the league against either of the Manchester clubs (D2 L12). Only four teams have ever played more times away from home against United and City without winning in the Football League: Hull (24), Walsall (16), Gainsborough Trinity (15) and Chesterfield (15).
● Man Utd have lost their first league game in two of the last three calendar years, as many as they had in the previous 23 (W15 D6). They lost 1-0 at home to Wolves in their first game of 2022, but haven’t lost their first match in consecutive years since 1978/1979.
● Bournemouth have won their first league game in just one of the last 10 calendar years (D6 L3), winning 1-0 at Stoke in 2021.
● Manchester United have won their last three Premier League home games by an aggregate score of 6-0 – they’ve not won four in a row without conceding at Old Trafford since a run of six between May and October 2017.
● Bournemouth have won just eight points in their last 18 away Premier League games (W2 D2 L14), keeping no clean sheets in that 18-game run, conceding 49 times. They’ve shipped 26 goals in just eight away games this season, the second most by a team after their first eight away matches in a Premier League season, behind only Burnley in 2009-10 (conceded 27).
● Manchester United have lost three of their last five home Premier League games in January (W2), winning just nine of their 17 games (53%) at Old Trafford in the month since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement. Under Ferguson, they won 81% of their home January matches in the competition (P42 W34 D6 L2).
● Only six teams have ever won away from home against Manchester United in the Premier League as a newly promoted side but one of those – Norwich City in December 2015 – had current Bournemouth manager Gary O’Neil in their starting XI that day. He could become the third person to win away from home at Old Trafford as a player and manager in the Premier League, along with Steve Clarke (Chelsea as a player, West Brom as manager) and Mark Hughes (Chelsea player, Blackburn manager).
● Marcus Rashford has been directly involved in seven of Manchester United’s last 10 home Premier League goals (5 goals, 2 assists), scoring in each of his last two such games at Old Trafford. Rashford has never scored in three consecutive league appearances at Old Trafford.
