PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker looks ahead to the four Premier League fixtures on Wednesday with match previews, FACTMAN stats and recommended BETDAQ bets.
SOUTHAMPTON V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
7.30pm The Premier League fixtures keep coming on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this week! We have another four fixtures to enjoy on Wednesday night, and we have four very competitive games too. We have three clear favourites and one open market but no one is trading odds on at the moment – the shortest price is Aston Villa at 2.0 to beat Wolves. We kick the evening off with a massive relegation battle as Southampton host Nottingham Forest. Southampton have re-started their season after the World Cup with two losses against Brighton and Fulham, and now they sit bottom of the table – they have also moved into odds on to go down after other results didn’t go their way over the Christmas and New Year period. Make no mistake, they are under immense pressure now and anything bar a win here will see them in serious trouble. Nottingham Forest will be looking at this game as a good chance to put Southampton in a terrible position, and they arrive here with confidence after getting a 1-1 draw at home to Chelsea on New Year’s Day. When you look at the table, this is definitely a relegation six-pointer!
Southampton will be pleased to have home advantage in such a big game, but that brings pressure too. I have to say I was surprised to see Southampton trading as short as 2.12 when I clicked into the market. I fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest – however I fully accept that Nottingham Forest haven’t been at their best away from home this season. They have only managed two points away from home this season which is obviously a very poor return and a worry if you are supporting them here. However, Southampton haven’t been playing well at home this season – they sit bottom of the Home Form table with just six points from their eight home games this season. Both sides have poor stats this season, and you’d expect with them sitting in the bottom three but over all they have a very similar profile. I just see a very close game here, and from a value point of view I’m happy with the Southampton lay at 2.12.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Southampton to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● This will be the first meeting between Southampton and Nottingham Forest in any competition since the 2011-12 Championship campaign, when Saints won home and away against them.
● Nottingham Forest have never lost a Premier League away game against Southampton (W3 D2), winning their last such visit 2-1 in August 1998.
● Southampton have won their last two games against Nottingham Forest in all competitions, as many as they had in their previous 17 (D4 L11). They last won three in a row against Forest in January 1984.
● Southampton lost their last Premier League home game against a promoted side, going down 2-1 against Watford in March. They’ve not lost consecutive such matches since April/November 2001 (vs Ipswich and Blackburn).
● Nottingham Forest have failed to score in each of their last six away Premier League games, attempting 44 shots with an xG of 4.6 without success in this run. They’ve only gone seven away league games without a goal once before, between September and November 1970.
● Southampton have won their first league game in each of the last three calendar years, beating Tottenham in 2020, Liverpool in 2021 and Brentford in 2022. They’ve never won their first league game in four consecutive years before.
● Southampton have won fewer home points than any other Premier League side this season (6), while Nottingham Forest have won fewer away points than anyone else (2). In fact, Forest have scored just one goal on the road so far, the lowest after eight Premier League games since Crystal Palace in 2017-18 (0).
● Southampton lost nine home Premier League matches during 2022, their most in a single calendar year since 1998, when they lost 10 at the Dell. They also conceded 31 goals at St Mary’s in 2022, only shipping more in home Premier League games in a year in 2019 (38).
● This match will see two Welsh managers (Nathan Jones and Steve Cooper) face in a Premier League match for only the 20th time, and first time since August 2017, when Tony Pulis and Mark Hughes shared a 1-1 draw as managers of West Brom and Stoke respectively. The only other two Welsh pairings as managers have been Chris Coleman vs Mark Hughes and Alan Curtis vs Tony Pulis.
● Steve Cooper’s first eight away Premier League matches with Nottingham Forest has seen them score just once, the fewest goals ever scored in a manager’s first eight away Premier League games. Forest have also conceded 22 goals in these games, the most in a manager’s first eight away games since Jan Siewert in 2019 with Huddersfield (24 conceded).
LEEDS V WEST HAM
7.45pm We have the most open market of Wednesday evening next as Leeds host West Ham. Leeds managed to grind out a draw away to Newcastle on New Year’s Eve but they were totally outplayed – at least that was a point however as West Ham have returned with two losses from their two games. You can forgive them losing 3-1 to Arsenal, although they did lead 1-0 at half-time, but to lose at home to Brentford is obviously going to ring the alarm bells. David Moyes must be starting to feel the heat – West Ham have been battling for the European spots for the last two seasons, and now they aren’t far away from a relegation battle! Their squad is much too good to go down, but they start the evening sitting on the same number of points as Nottingham Forest, and they could easily be sitting in the bottom three heading into the weekend round of fixtures. One wonders how things will go for Moyes over the next few weeks – he’s most certainly in need of a result soon anyway! Whatever you think about trigger happy owners these days, West Ham have a good squad and they shouldn’t be down towards the bottom of the table. Maybe he’s lost the dressing room, or his systems aren’t working, but they just aren’t creating enough chances this season.
This should be an interesting game, because Leeds are usually quite average at the back. They are a good side to meet when you are struggling going forward because they will give you chances. They are only two points ahead of West Ham, but they have played one game less. When you look at the under-lining numbers, it’s as clear as day that West Ham are struggling to score goals. They haven’t been that bad at the back because their average xG conceded is just 1.3 this season which isn’t bad – compare that to the 1.9 from Leeds for example but they just need to create more. This is a tricky game to call because Leeds are clearly better than West Ham going forward, but they leak more chances too. They might actually get away with that here if West Ham are struggling for confidence up front, and home advantage could pay too. I’m happy with a small bet on Leeds at 2.66, it seems a good time to be against West Ham at the moment but I’m keeping stakes low.
The Striker Says:
One point win Leeds to beat West Ham at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeeWhu
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Having lost just two of their first 20 Premier League meetings with West Ham between 1993 and 2003 (W14 D4), Leeds have lost three of their four against the Hammers since their return to the top-flight (W1).
● West Ham have won their last two Premier League away games against Leeds, as many as they had in their previous 33 league visits to Elland Road (D8 L23). It’s the first time the Hammers have ever won back-to-back away league games against the Whites.
● West Ham have won their last two Premier League games away against Leeds, despite going 1-0 down both times. The only side to win three consecutive Premier League away games against a side despite conceding the first goal each time are Everton, who did so at West Ham in 2012-13, 2013-14 and 2014-15.
● West Ham have won their last three away league games against Yorkshire sides (twice against Leeds, once against Sheffield United) – they last won four in a row in the county between 1938 and 1946 (against Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley and Bradford Park Avenue twice).
● Leeds beat Burnley 3-1 in their first Premier League game of 2022 but haven’t won their opening league match in consecutive calendar years since 2012 and 2013.
● West Ham have won their opening league match in each of the last three calendar years – they’ve never done so in four in a row before.
● Leeds have lost their last five Premier League matches against London clubs, despite taking the lead in three of those games (vs Crystal Palace, Fulham and Tottenham). It’s Leeds’ worst league losing run against teams from the capital since between April 1957 and March 1958 (also five), while they’ve never lost six in a row in their league history.
● Leeds conceded 35 home Premier League goals in 2022, their most at Elland Road in a single calendar year in the top-flight since 1959 (40). They also kept just two clean sheets, their fewest ever at home in a year when they’ve played the full year in the top-flight.
● Leeds have conceded three goals in each of their last three home Premier League games, losing 3-2 to Fulham, winning 4-3 against Bournemouth and losing 3-1 to Man City. The Whites haven’t shipped 3+ goals in four consecutive home league games since October 1960.
● West Ham manager David Moyes has never lost away from home against Leeds United in the Premier League in four previous visits (W3 D1), the joint most of any manager without losing (also John Gregory and Gerry Francis on four). Only Sir Alex Ferguson has ever won more away games at Elland Road in the Premier League (5) than Moyes (3).
ASTON VILLA V WOLVES
8pm We have two games kicking off at 8pm, the first of which is Aston Villa hosting Wolves. Unai Emery has made a wonderful start at Villa, and suddenly they are looking like a solid mid-table side. As I said under Steven Gerrard, you could clearly see that he didn’t improve them looking at their xG figures, while Emery has them creating some decent chances and scoring goals in his brief time. They recorded a very impressive 2-0 win away to Spurs on New Year’s Day, and they fully deserved it too. They held Spurs to an xG of only 0.58 and controlled the game – that performance has put Conte under pressure. Wolves have had a positive re-start to the season too. They recorded a huge win over Everton on Boxing Day to really mix things up in the relegation battle, and then although they lost 1-0 to Manchester United on New Year’s Eve, they nearly held on for a 0-0. That was obviously their plan, and they got until the 76th minute. Wolves have clearly struggled up front this season, and that’s going to be a huge issue for them. They have only created an average xG of 1.1 per Premier League game this season, and they haven’t even taken their chances. Their actual goals scored is only 0.6 per game on average – that’s a very poor showing.
Wolves are also struggling at the back, they have lost their ability to grind out results and that’s clearly going to cause them big issues. They are conceding sloppy goals, and with Emery having Aston Villa well set-up it’s likely that Villa will get plenty of chances here. Although I expect Villa to get the job done, they do feel a little short at 2.02 – I wasn’t expecting to see them trading as short as that when I clicked into the market. I’m not going to lay them from a value point of view, but the 2.02 is too short to back so I’m happy to look elsewhere for some value. The way things have gone at the bottom of the table, a draw wouldn’t be a bad result for Wolves here and they will likely approach this game like the United game. Under 2.5 goals looks worth a small bet at 1.82 in what should be a pretty close game. I can see Villa grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 win, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 0-0 either. Both Teams Not To Score looks good value at 1.99 too in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 1.82 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AstWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Aston Villa haven’t won any of their last six Premier League home games against Wolves (D3 L3), alternating between a draw and a defeat each time (lost 3-2 last season).
● Wolves did the league double over Aston Villa last season, last winning three in a row against them between April 1957 and December 1960 (a run of 7).
● Wolves won 1-0 at Man Utd in their first Premier League game of 2022. They last won their opening league match in consecutive years in 2015 and 2016, while they last did so as a top-flight side between 1979 and 1981 (three in a row).
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery suffered his first home defeat with the club in their 3-1 reverse against Liverpool on Boxing Day, only his third ever home Premier League defeat in 28 games, including his spell at Arsenal (W18 D7). Emery hasn’t lost consecutive home league games since April 2021 with Villarreal in LaLiga.
● Wolves won 2-1 against Everton in their last away Premier League game, as many wins as they’d had in their previous 14 on the road (W1 D3 L10). They are looking for consecutive away wins for the first time since winning four in a row between December 2021 and February 2022.
● Since the start of last season, Aston Villa have lost all seven of their Premier League games against teams whose names begin with W, losing twice to Watford, twice to Wolves and three times to West Ham.
● Wolves manager Julen Lopetegui and Aston Villa’s Unai Emery have already faced once this season in LaLiga, with Villarreal drawing 1-1 with Sevilla in September. It’s the first time ever that two managers have faced in both the Premier League and LaLiga in the same season.
● Ollie Watkins has been involved in at least one goal in his last three home Premier League appearances (2 goals, 1 assist), including scoring but ending on the losing side in a 3-1 defeat to Liverpool in Villa’s final home game of 2022. Watkins has now lost in five home Premier League games he’s scored in for Aston Villa, with only Christian Benteke losing more games he’s scored in at Villa Park in the Premier League (6).
● Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has never beaten Wolves in the Premier League in three attempts (D2 L1), only facing Recreativo and Liverpool more often in his top-flight managerial career without winning (4).
● Aston Villa striker Danny Ings has been involved in four goals in his last five Premier League appearances against Wolves (three goals, one assist). In all competitions, he has netted in his last three games against them (three goals).
CRYSTAL PALACE V TOTENHAM
8pm We finish the evening with Crystal Palace hosting Spurs. After losing 2-0 at home to Aston Villa on New Year’s Day, there’s a million and one questions now aimed at Spurs and Conte. The reality is Spurs just haven’t been good enough since they re-started their season and things could be worse too – they were 2-0 down against Brentford before coming back for 2-2. It will be interesting to see what Conte does in this situation – how he reacts and how the players react. He is very hot headed, and you’ll likely see a lot of pressure come from the UK media now too. Luckily for Spurs, Liverpool dropped points losing to Brentford and Newcastle drew 0-0 with Leeds so things could have been worse, but United jumped over them into the Top Four. I felt the World Cup came at a good time for Spurs because they went into that break playing poorly too. They got themselves out of some terrible situations with great comebacks, but you just can’t come from two goals down all the time. They are conceding far too many sloppy goals, and it will be interesting to see how much pressure Crystal Palace can apply here.
Spurs come into the game as favourites – they are currently trading 2.3 at the time of writing but it’s hard to back them at those odds based on their performances. They were very poor against Aston Villa and only finished that game with an xG of 0.52. They also conceded an xG of over double what they managed to create against Brentford. Palace have re-started their season with a loss at home and a win away – they were totally outplayed by Fulham here on their first game back, so I’m not too confident on the Spurs lay at 2.3. I feel the best option here is to avoid the match odds market because we basically have two unreliable sides who are conceding too many goals. The best option in my opinion is Over 2.5 goals at 2.06. I was surprised to see it trading odds against when I clicked into the market – both sides like to play an open game, and Spurs have so many issues at the back it’s hard to see them being involved in a low scoring game at the moment.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryTot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace won this exact fixture 3-0 last season – they’ve never won consecutive home league games against Spurs before.
● Of every Premier League side they’ve played more than 20 times, only against Sunderland (66%) do Tottenham have a higher win rate than they do against Crystal Palace (58% – won 15 of 26 meetings).
● Tottenham haven’t won any of their last 10 away Premier League games against fellow London sides (D4 L6) since a 1-0 win at Fulham in March 2021. It’s their longest ever run without an away London derby win in their league history.
● Crystal Palace have lost their first league game of a calendar year on each of the last seven occasions the match has been a London derby, in a run stretching back to a 4-1 loss at Arsenal in 1990. The Eagles’ first Premier League match of 2022 was a 3-2 home loss to West Ham.
● Crystal Palace’s final home league game of 2022 was a 3-0 defeat to Fulham, their heaviest home defeat since April 2021, losing 4-1 to Chelsea. Palace haven’t lost consecutive home Premier League games since January/February 2022, a run of three.
● Tottenham have fallen two goals behind in four of their last five away Premier League games (W1 D1 L2), including their last three, although they’ve avoided defeat in their last two (3-2 vs Bournemouth, 2-2 vs Brentford). No team has ever gone 2+ goals behind in three consecutive away games and avoided defeat in each one.
● Crystal Palace have won just two of their last 15 Premier League games in January (D6 L7), beating Sheffield United and Wolves in 2021. They have won none of their last 10 London derbies in the month (D3 L7).
● Tottenham striker Harry Kane has been involved in eight goals in his last six Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace, scoring five and assisting three. Overall, the Eagles are one of just two teams Kane has scored 5+ goals (8) and provided 5+ assists (5) against in the Premier League, along with Southampton (11 goals, 6 assists).
● Spurs’ Harry Kane has scored nine goals in 28 Premier League games played on Wednesdays, his worst goals-per-game ratio on a single day of the week in the competition (0.3). However, he’s already scored at least 10 goals on Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and could become the first player to reach double figures on as many as six different days of the week in Premier League history.
● Spurs manager Antonio Conte has lost two of his five Premier League matches against Crystal Palace, both with Chelsea in 2017. He’s only lost more Premier League games against Manchester United (4).
