TUESDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews the Bundesliga and Serie A top matches all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SCHALKE V RB LEIPZIG
5.30pm We have plenty of midweek action from Europe this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange as the Bundesliga returned at the weekend, and we also have a cracking fixture from Serie A too. All eyes will be on Lazio v AC Milan as the highlight of the night, but we kick the evening off in the Bundesliga as Schalke host RB Leipzig. Long-term readers will remember how fond I was betting against Schalke during lockdown when they were a very average side – they topped Bundesliga 2 last season, but they are being completely outclassed again in the Bundesliga as they sit rock bottom. After returning with another loss at the weekend, they are now five points adrift nailed to the bottom of the table, and have a huge job on their hands to stay up. If you look at the bare under-lining numbers, they actually aren’t playing as badly as the 2020/21 season. That season their average xG created was 0.9 and conceded was 2.1. This season their average xG created is 1.2 and their conceded is 1.7. Not as bad, but not good reading for them either. Despite the returning loss to Eintracht Frankfurt at the weekend, they actually didn’t play that badly. They finished the game with an xG of 2.34 and that was their joint-bigger figure this season – they didn’t win either game!
RB Leipzig resumed their season with a hard fought 1-1 draw at home to Bayern. They would have been delighted with that – I felt we’d see a more open game but 1-1 was a fair reflection. RB Leipzig were probably right not to make the game too open and go toe-to-toe with Bayern. Over all this season though they have been playing an open game in general, and they went into the World Cup on a winning run that saw them shoot up the table too. It’s hard to see past them winning here, and the 1.62 is a very tempting bet. I can see Leipzig being a very popular selection this week at those odds! When you consider how many chances Schalke have been conceding at the back and see Leipzig are averaging an xG of 1.9 per game in the Bundesliga this season I expected to see the away win closer to 1.5. I’m not going to go mad with the stakes here, but I can only see one winner. The 1.62 jumps off the page here, and I’m happy to back Leipzig rather than look around the sides markets. Schalke are a very average side, and Leipzig should get the job done.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win RB Leipzig to beat Schalke at 1.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SchRbl
BAYERN MUNICH V KOLN
7.30pm We stay in the Bundesliga next as the German Champions Bayern Munich host Koln. Although Bayern dropped points last weekend with a draw against RB Leipzig, they still have a five point cushion at the top of the Bundesliga and they are cruising to another title. I actually thought when Bayern dropped a few more points than usual at the start of the season we’d see a reasonable title race in the Bundesliga but that idea was put to bed when Bayern went into the World Cup off the back of a winning run with everyone else dropping points. I know there’s a huge gulf in class between Bayern and the rest of the Bundesliga, but you have to feel at this stage we need a little competition. Otherwise Bayern are just going to set a record for the amount of times they win the title in a row – and it’s a record that will likely never be topped. Even PSG didn’t win the league in France in 2020/21! At the time of writing, Bayern are trading the shortest price of any side in the Bundesliga for this midweek round of fixtures. They are trading as short as 1.22 at the time of writing, and with home advantage it’s hard to see past a win here. I wouldn’t really recommended backing odds of 1.22, but Bayern are a very good option for any Betdaq Multiple this week! Koln have been sitting in mid-table this season, and while their performances haven’t been bad, they do concede a lot of sloppy goals.
Koln returned with a headline score of 7-1 at the weekend over Werder Bremen. Fair to say they couldn’t come into this game on a better high after scoring seven goals in one game! The World Cup definitely came at a good time for them as they went into that off the back of five games without a win, including a 5-0 hammering against Mainz. They have definitely struggled away from home this season – they’ve only managed six points away from home from their eight games this season, and that form has to be a massive red flag heading into a game against Bayern. I feel this is a case of how many goals Bayern can score rather than will they win, and the market is expecting lots of goals! Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.3, and the value here is with Both Teams To Score at 1.75 in my opinion. This will be a very open game, and I can see Bayern relaxing too as they take a 3-0 lead for example. Koln re-started their season bang in form, and they can score at some stage in what should be an entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.75 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BayKol
LAZIO V AC MILAN
7.45pm We move over to Serie A to finish Tuesday evening as Lazio host AC Milan! At the moment it looks like Napoli are running away with the title in Italy. After the results the weekend, Napoli now have a 12 point lead at the top of the table. They actually lost their first game back too against Inter Milan, but they have won every game since and the others have dropped points too. AC Milan dropped more points as well, and that’s two disappointing draws in a row. 12 points is a massive lead at this stage of the season, and it’s hard to see AC Milan being able to turn that around from here. What’s probably more disappointing from their point of view is that they conceded a higher xG than they created in those two draws, so it’s not like they are playing fantastic football at the moment either. We had the shock news on Friday night from Serie A that Juventus were getting deducted 15 points from an investigation into their transfer business, and one of the sides that will benefit from that is Lazio! At the moment, they sit just inside the European spots, but you have to say everything is to play for – even Champions League football!
Lazio would have been delighted to finally notch up a win at the weekend away to Sassuolo after a loss and a draw from their opening two games back after the World Cup. Lazio have actually be rock solid both at home and away this season – they have played nine games both home and away, and have the same amount of points from both! That puts them one point ahead of AC Milan in the away form table, which makes you think twice about backing AC Milan here. It’s not a surprise that we have an open market, and we should have a very close game. AC Milan come into the game as favourites at 2.44, but I feel that’s a very short price considering they haven’t been firing recently. I would have them closer to 2.6, and I really wouldn’t be surprised to even see Lazio win. A win for Lazio would be absolutely huge in the race for the European spots, but from a betting point of view it’s nice to have the draw on our side here and I’m happy with the AC Milan lay at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) AC Milan to beat Lazio at 2.44 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazMil
