WEDNESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between INTER MILAN v PORTO and RP LEIPZIG v MAN CITY both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
INTER MILAN V PORTO
8pm We have another fascinating night in the Champions League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! Tournament favourites Manchester City are in action on Wednesday night, but we start the evening in Italy as Inter Milan host Porto. I’m sure most football fans will be expecting an Inter Milan win here, but Porto managed to top their Group while knocking out Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid. You could say that neither of them are having a good season, but Inter Milan have also been on the pace in Serie A. Napoli are running away with the Serie A title, and Inter Milan are 15 points behind them in second. Porto aren’t leading their domestic league either – they sit in second behind Benfica, but it does look like an exciting title race between Benfica, Porto and Braga this season. Porto come into this game off a winning run, and as you would expect they have very impressive under-lining numbers in Portugal. Their average xG created is 2.1, and they are only conceding an average of 0.8. Very impressive, but they are one of the best sides in a relatively weak league so nothing that you wouldn’t expect. The Serie A standard is much stronger, and Inter Milan have similar stats. Their average xG created is 1.8, and their average xG conceded is only 0.9.
Inter Milan have thrown away a few points this season, but they have been playing well since the World Cup. The home side come into this game trading as the odds on favourites, but they aren’t too short. The 1.8 is sure to be a popular bet, but they have to be at the top of their game here. Porto are a superb side when you give them momentum – we all saw that when they finished the Group stage so strongly! It’s hard to believe they actually lost both of their opening fixtures, and 4-0 to Club Brugge too at home! Inter Milan were in a Group with Barcelona and Bayern Munich, and wouldn’t have been expected to get through despite being a European giant. They beat Barcelona here, and then got a 3-3 draw away from home. It will be interesting to see what tactics both sides go with here, because they played a very open game at the Group stage. The market is expecting a fairly tight game with Under 2.5 goals the favourite at 1.83. I’d expect to see Porto set up a little negatively, and I can’t see Inter going for it too early either. We could easily see a 0-0 here with is 11.5 and while the draw is a tempting bet, I’m going to have a small bet on 0-0 Correct Score at a fancy price.
The Ultra Says:
One point win 0-0 Correct Score at 11.5 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/IntPor
RB LEIPZIG V MANCHESTER CITY
8pm Next we have RB Leipzig hosting Manchester City, and we really could see fireworks here! Would anyone be surprised to see a 4-3 score line here? I don’t think so! After doing all the hard work and closing a five point gap on Arsenal at the top of the Premier League, Man City blew it again at the weekend with a 1-1 draw away to Nottingham Forest. A late dramatic winner for Arsenal means the gap is two points. In fairness to City, they finished the game with an xG of 3.21 – they played very well, just didn’t take their chances. After a very slow start to the season, RB Leipzig only find themselves five points behind Bayern Munich after Bayern lost at the weekend in the Bundesliga – they are still outside the top four in Germany, maybe we might have an interesting title race but don’t hold your breath. RB Leipzig have been playing impressive football in the Bundesliga, they are averaging an xG of 1.9 in the Bundesliga this season and only conceding an average xG of 1.1. They should be a good test for City here, but you also have to acknowledge that City are the best side in Europe these days. They might be two points behind Arsenal, but their under-lining numbers are so impressive in the Premier League which is the top league in Europe. Their average xG created is a whopping 2.4 and they are rock solid at the back too – their average xG conceded is only 1.0. Because this is a first leg, we might see a cagey affair but there’s a lot of attacking talent on display here – it all depends when the first goal comes in my opinion.
City come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.87, with RB Leipzig 4.6 and the draw is 3.95. I feel the opening 20 minutes is very important here – if we see a goal I can definitely see a very open end-to-end game with plenty of chances, but if a goal doesn’t come early then we might see a pretty cagey display for both sides. City won’t be overly bothered about having an open game with the second leg at home – the pressure is all on RB Leipzig here because you have to feel that to have any chance of getting through they must win here. The market has Over 2.5 goals as the favourite, but it isn’t too short at 1.78. I would want to see how both sides line up and perform in the opening 20 minutes before having a strong opinion on goals, and I feel the best pre-off option here is City at 1.87. It’s a bigger prices compared to Overs, and they are on a different level to RB Leipzig. I know their draw at the weekend took all the headlines, but we know looking at the xG figure they could have easily scored four or five – they are playing the better football, and can grind out a win.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Manchester City to beat RB Leipzig at 1.87 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblMci
