THE SURE THINGS FOR THE NATIONAL: Daqman previews a race which could decide the Aintree Grand National. Tomorrow’s Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse features horses sure to get into the race, if connections choose.
DAQMAN’S HALF-HOUR BETTING SPREE: Daqman has bets in three races which will be all over in half an hour this afternoon, including the Devon National which has cut up because of the ground.
IS THERE ANOTHER HEDGEHUNTER?
⭕ 3.55 Fairyhouse tomorrow (Bobbyjo Chase) This Grade 3 was famously won in 2005 by one of the Grand National heroes of the modern era, Hedgehunter.
And last year’s Bobbyjo winner, Any Second Now, would go on to be runner-up in the National, despite beating a depleted Fairyhouse field (only four ran).
Tomorrow’s probables suggest that the race could again play a major role at Aintree, with seven of the nine acceptors entered in the National, six of them able to run if connections want to.
Five are already guaranteed a place in the National field because given one of the top 40 weights for the race (the number at left is their number on the Liverpool card) and a sixth needs only four to come out for him to get in.
15 Carefully Selected (Willie Mullins) Won the Killiney Novice Chase at Punchestown three years back in a sequence of four out of five, still standing.
Off for most of the time since then, before landing his fourth of only six chase starts (though aged 11) in last month’s Thyestes, with Pencilfulloflead running on, third.
23 Pencilfulloflead (Gordon Elliott) Won the Florida Pearl Novice Chase at Punchestown in 2020. Rarely seen after, until staying on third in the Thyestes in January (see Carefully Selected).
19 Longhouse Poet (Martin Brassil) Won the 2022 Thyestes and, disputing lead two out, finished sixth to Noble Yeats in last year’s Grand National. BETDAQ Sportsbook 17.0 for Aintree.
30 Farclas (Gordon Elliott) Runner-up in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival of 2021 before fifth to Minella Times in the Grand National. Failed to finish in three of only four starts in 2021-22, but staying on second in the Troytown at Navan in November. BETDAQ Sportsbook 66.0 for Aintree.
40 Vanillier (Gavin Cromwell) Mainly disappointing since winning the Albert Bartlett in the 2021 Cheltenham festival. Not jump well, poor third in the NH Challenge Cup there last year.
Fell early in the Leopardstown Chase at the beginning of the month when Glamorgan Duke (Paul John Gilligan, No 78 at Aintree) was second.
44 Enjoy D’Allen (Ciaran Murphy) Third in the 2021 Irish Grand National and in the big Christmas chase at Leopardstown but stumbled and unseated at first fence at Aintree. Has to bounce back.
‘LOST’ IS TODAY’S HIDDEN HORSE
⭕ 3.00 Warwick today On Joe Tizzard’s top track (43%), Lostintranslation drops out of Graded company after 14 consecutive, 20 in a row if you include one Listed chase.
He’s down 31lb on three years ago and is the ‘hidden horse’ of the day in this class-3 handicap chase.
Galahad Quest, Iron Bridge and Precious Eleanor have yet to score in senior company and the grey Numitor has to bounce back after wind surgery.
The youngster, In Excelsis Deo, is likely to be an improver, stepped up in trip but all winning form of this ex-French is on soft, very soft and just plain heavy.
It’s a race in which to take a bit of early Lostiontranslation and then follow the market to find the one ‘expected’ among the less exposed.
Iron Bridge is entered in four races at the Cheltenham Festival, all at 3m or more, so his winning three times over today’s trip suggests a combination of speed and stamina.
But he’s very close at the weights to the one-time Cheltenham Gold Cup third, Lostintranslation.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 10.5 Iron Bridge, 28 Lostintranslaiton
FAVORI SHOULD BE FAVOURITE
⭕ 3.15 Exeter (Devon National) Trained by Jane Williams (50% in handicap chases at Exeter), Favori De Sivola won 2-2 there, including a marathon in December, and came unstuck on the course last month only because of deep ground.
Deep is the way course-specialist Raddon Top likes it, though he has won here on good.
D’jango likes a sound surface and scored over 3m 5f the last day but that race was only 10 days back.
Coup De Pinceau won a marathon hunter-chase at Cheltenham but form from that discipline rarely transfers to this. Neither Gazette Bourgeoisie nor The Macon Lugnatic has ever won a chase.
BETDAQ value 5.6 Favori De Sivola
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.50 Lingfield (win 12 each)
BET 4pts win WELOOF
BET 1pt win CAP D’ANTIBES
3.00 Warwick (win 50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 1.85pts win LOSTINTRANSLATION
BET 5pts win IRON BRIDGE
3.15 Exeter (win 18, nap)
BET 4pts win FAVORI DE SIVOLA
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