SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s top games in Europe all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
RB LEIPZIG V EINTRACHT FRANKFURT
2.30pm We have a wonderful Saturday in Europe on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! No doubt all eyes will be on the Madrid Derby later on in La Liga, but we start the day in the Bundesliga as RB Leipzig host Eintracht Frankfurt. RB Leipzig recorded an excellent result here midweek with a 1-1 draw against Manchester City. I know they have it all to do in the second leg in Manchester, but with City starting the game odds on to win a draw was a positive result for RB Leipzig. They finished the game with a higher xG than they conceded, and who knows what could happen in Manchester – they do have the attacking talent to spring a surprise. This should be a high quality game and it’s a huge game for both sides as they sit beside each other in the table. RB Leipzig start the weekend sitting in fifth place, with Eintracht Frankfurt behind them by only one point. Despite RB Leipzig being out of the top four, they are still only four points behind league leaders Bayern Munich so things are very tight at the top of the table this season. With Bayern Munich playing Union Berlin this weekend too, we should have a good idea where the title race is going as well as the top four race.
RB Leipzig come into this game as the odds on favourites – currently trading 1.74 at the time of writing. Eintracht Frankfurt also had midweek Champions League action, and they were completely outplayed by Napoli. I know Napoli have been very impressive in Serie A this season, they are running away with the title, but Eintracht Frankfurt looked very poor – they only finished the game with an xG of 0.33 and they had home advantage too. If you compare the under-lining numbers here and look at their recent performances, there is only one winner. RB Leipzig are creating a lot more than Eintracht Frankfurt this season, but to be fair Eintracht Frankfurt have been over-performing in front of goal. I’m not going to go too mad with the stakes here, but the 1.74 on RB Leipzig is worth taking in a game they should win. As we saw midweek too, they have been rock solid at the back and that will likely be the difference here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win RB Leipzig to beat Eintracht Frankfurt at 1.74 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RblEin
REAL MADRID V ATLETICO MADRID
5.30pm Next we move over to La Liga for the Madrid Derby! Real Madrid took all the headlines midweek in the Champions League as they hammered Liverpool 5-2 an Anfield. They came back from 2-0 down too, but we all know how poor Liverpool have been at the back this season. I wouldn’t read too much into that result, and they face a much tougher test here. Atletico had their feet up during the week because they were so poor at the Group stage of the Champions League they didn’t even make it into the Europa League! This is a huge game for both sides, especially Real Madrid who find themselves in a ‘must win every game’ situation as they sit eight points behind Barcelona in the title race. Real haven’t done anything majorly wrong, but they have conceded sloppy goals at important times and simply dropped too many points while playing well but not taking their chances. Their loss at the start of the month to Mallorca was a classic example – they finished the game with an xG figure of nearly seven times what they conceded but got beaten 1-0. Atletico have been having an average season, and they have been somewhat lucky that Sevilla were miles off the pace this season. Atletico are sitting in fourth at the start of the weekend, and it would be a total disaster if they missed out on Champions League football. They haven’t done anything majorly wrong, but much like Real Madrid they have left points behind not taking their chances. They have a little cushion on Real Betis, but they can’t afford a run of losses. A fascinating Derby awaits.
Real Madrid come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.85 which is very understandable given how both sides have played this season. I know Real are eight behind behind Barcelona in the title race which is disappointing, however you can’t really knock Real this season. Their average xG created is a very high 2.4 and their average xG conceded is only 1.1. They are top class stats – it’s just Barcelona have been better and grinded out more results. Real Madrid have a good recent home record against Atletico too; they have won the last three La Liga clashes with home advantage, and they have actually only been beaten once in the last ten La Liga meetings. We usually get a cagey game, and you can see why Under/Over 2.5 goals is very close to 2.0 either side of the book. Over 2.5 goals has only won twice in their last ten La Liga meetings between the sides, and while I expect a Real win here I feel Under 2.5 goals offers more value at 1.97. I can only see a very close and cagey game here – it should be intense viewing!
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.97 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RmaAtl
VALENCIA V REAL SOCIEDAD
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish Saturday as Valencia host Real Sociedad. This is a huge game for both sides for different reasons. Valencia have been on a terrible run, and now list their last five games in a row. That run has put them into the relegation zone, and while we have a very open relegation battle in La Liga this season they are really under pressure now. They have lost to Real Valladolid and Getafe within that five game run, two sides also in the relegation battle who are now ahead of them. It’s another big game for Real Sociedad too who have put themselves in an excellent position for a chance at getting Champions League football next season. Obviously they have benefited from Sevilla dropping out of the top four, but Sociedad have been very impressive this season. They started the weekend two points ahead of Atletico Madrid, and six points ahead of Real Betis in fifth. I know they started the last two seasons very strongly and fell away mid-season, but they seem rock solid for the time being. With Valencia struggling so much, this is pretty much a must win game for Real Sociedad in their top four battle. They can’t afford to drop points against sides in the bottom three.
We have a very open market for this game. I have to say I was very surprised when I clicked into the market and saw the odds here. Valencia are trading 3.3, with Real Sociedad 2.48 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. I would definitely have Real Sociedad shorter than 2.48, and it’s going to be hard to get away from them here for my best bet. The thing about Real Sociedad is that they aren’t a flashy side, so they are never going to be too popular. They have been superb away from home this season though – they sit third in the away form table, only two points less than Real Madrid. They actually have more points away from home compared to at home this season. Valencia have been a lot more solid at home compared to away from home, but they come into this game in woeful form. They have conceded xG figures of 2.53, 1.79, 2.65, 2.35 and 1.79 in their last five games and it seems an ideal time to take them on. I believe we’re getting so much value on Sociedad here that they are worth a Max Bet at 2.48.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Real Sociedad to beat Valencia at 2.48 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ValSoc
