WIN THE BIG FOUR RACES WITH DAQMAN: Daqman, who finished pennies ahead with 100-30 winner Weloof yesterday, presents previews of four big races for today:
Winter Derby Thursday in the Archive
Bobbyjo Chase Friday in the Archive
Kempton Trophy 1-2-3 today
Eider Chase Horse-by-horse guide today
HE HITS THE HEADLINES OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman leads Pricewise of the Racing Post 16-12 as they face off at Lingfield, Newcastle and Kempton this afternoon. Headlines:
FOXES TALE WINS FRESH
CASTLE CAN SHOW POWER
CRUISE CONTROL 12.0 VALUE
BACK THE BOBBYJO SELECTED
FOXES TALES WINS FRESH
⭕ 1.30 Lingfield (Listed Sprint) All winners for seven years have been drawn 1 to 5, where Alligator Alley (out of the one stall) fits all the stats; right age and weight.
His trainer, David O’Meara, is striking at 21% with his older horses and Lingfield is his winningmost AW track.
After a hat-trick at the back end of last year, Alligator Alley had to give 7lb to Tone The Barone and was beaten just over two lengths at Wolverhampton. They meet at levels today.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 5.7 Alligator Alley
⭕ 2.05 Lingfield (Winter Derby) See Daqman’s Thursday preview
Team Gosden has Lord North 12lb and more clear of anything else in the race, including their own Forest Of Dean and Harrovian, all three well drawn.
Andrew Balding, running into Winter Derby weekend with a 44% strike rate (7-16), saddles Foxes Tales, who won first time up in 2021 and ran second in the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown last Spring.
BETDAQ value 17.0 Foxes Tales
CASTLE CAN SHOW POWER
⭕ 3.00 Kempton (Trophy) The last two winners of this 3m handicap chase clash for a second time in a fascinating handicap puzzle.
Christian Williams’ Cap Du Nord, fifth receiving 15lb when beaten 10 lengths by the winner, Clondaw Castle in 2021, took the trophy the following year and now gets 19lb from his old rival.
Clondaw Castle has been laid out for the race and has got his ground, whereas it’s only a week since Cap returned to form so, to win the trophy back to back, he must also back up his Ascot success earlier in the month.
In last year’s triumph, Cap Du Nord was getting 12lb from the third, Our Power, and 22lb from fourth home, Enrilo (beaten 11 lengths).
Enrilo has been out of form since but, a stone better off with Cap Du Nord and 9lb with Our Power, he could return to something like his old self, claimed off for an additional 5lb.
But compare his five times failing to finish (PFP-FP) with Clondaw Castle’s 10 in a row in the first four, and good-ground form for more than three years of 311411.
And, at only eight years old, Our Power is entitled to improve in the hands of Sam Thomas, who has attracted the headlines almost as often as Christian Williams, most recently with Welsh National winner Iwilldoit.
1 Clondaw Castle gets the verdict, with my news that Enrilo is being primed for the Sandown Gold Cup.
2 Our Power has also been aimed at today’s race, after being unlucky in running last year, and likes the ground. It should be fast-run. That may be down to..
3 Frodon dropped in class, with the CD against his name representing victory here in the King George of 2020.
Betdaq Betting Exchange value 6.9 Our Power, 13.0 Clondaw Castle
CRUISE CONTROL 12.0 VALUE
⭕ 3.25 Newcastle (Eider Chase) The old warrior usually wins this: there have been no winners younger than nine in the decade. Only one winner in the last 11 has carried more than 11st 1lb.
Comply or Die (2008) was the first since Highland Wedding (1969) to land the Eider-National double in the same season.
1 No Cruise Yet Nine consecutive races in the first three, shrugging off overall rise of 26lb, winning the Red Rum Series Final at Carlisle last March (good going). Continued on the up with 3m 4f strike at Haydock in November, and back to form two weeks ago after a break.
2 Kittys Light Has crashed more than a stone down the handicap since the days which prompted attempts at the Kempton Trophy (second) on this day last year before the Scottish Grand National (second) and Sandown Gold Cup (third). But he’s still only seven.
3 Houston Texas When he won the Cumberland Chase at Carlisle in October, trainer Nicky Richards earmarked him for the Eider but added ‘it’s got to be soft.’
4 Amateur Won the 2020 Mandarin (3m 2f) before Devon National fourth and West Wales National winner of 2021. Did the West Wales double (3m4f good) last season off just a pound lower than today. Has to bounce back from moderate reappearance run in January.
5 Shanty Alley Won over 3m 2f on good to soft as a novice and second at that trip on the last day of 2022 in the Mandarin (soft) at Newbury.
6 Mighty Thunder Poor form (but 19lb lower now) since winning the Edinburgh National and Scottish Grand National of 2021 (going good)
7 One More Fleurie Down 16lb since winning four out of five in the Spring two years back, mainly on good ground.
8 In Rem Jane Williams, who had a notable winner at Warwick yesterday with Galahad Quest, sends this French-bred up in grade after a 40lb climb in the ratings with six wins on all types of ground in the last 30 months.
9 Bavington Bob Landed a four-timer last Spring and is in the picture, blinkered first time, with champion Brian Hughes booked.
10 The Galloping Bear fell in the Welsh National and seems to want heavy ground and less of a burden to carry.
11 Sams Adventure won this in 2021 off a stone higher mark and was third to 12 Bushypark at Catterick before winning there over 3m. But both seem to need soft-heavy, as does 13 Rath An Luir, sixth last year 13lb higher and now in cheekpieces.
14 Eva’s Oskar My last could be first after two staying-on performances at Cheltenham but 12st looks prohibitive.
BETDAQ value 12 No Cruise Yet, 13.5 Houston Texas
BACK THE BOBBYJO SELECTED
⭕ 3.55 Fairyhouse (Bobbyjo Chase) See Daqman’s Friday Preview
LAYS LOGIC: Kemboy has been second four times and third twice in 13 losing starts since scoring at Leopardstown two years ago.
I prefer stablemate Carefully Selected (BETDAQ 2.96) to come out on top in a race of key Grand National entries.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Lingfield (win 12)
BET 2pts win ALLIGATOR ALLEY
2.05 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 1.25pts win and place FOXES TALES
3.00 Kempton (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 8.25pts win OUR POWER
BET 4pts win CLONDAW CASTLE
3.25 Newcastle (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
BET 4.5pts win NO CRUISE YET
BET 4pts win HOUSTON TEXAS
3.55 Fairyhouse (win 12, nap)
BET 6pts win CAREFULLY SELECTED
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