WEDNESDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Wednesday’s two games between BRIGHTON v CRYSTAL PALACE and SOUTHAMPTON v BRENTFORD both including FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRIGHTON V CRYSTAL PALACE
7.30pm All eyes might be on the Cheltenham Festival and the Champions League this week, but we also have midweek Premier League action on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We might not have the most glamorous fixtures, but we have two interesting markets on Wednesday night! We start the action with Brighton hosting Crystal Palace, and the home side are trading long odds on favourites at 1.56 at the time of writing. Crystal Palace have been very poor this season, they only conceded once at the weekend against Manchester City to extend their run without a win, but they conceded an xG of 2.47 so it could have easily finished 3-0 or 4-0 to City. Brighton were involved in a rollercoaster 2-2 draw with Leeds, but it was a classic case of Brighton finishing the game with a much higher xG figure than they conceded but couldn’t get three points. How many times does that happen to Brighton! It’s always a worry in the back of your head when you’re thinking about backing Brighton, will they finish the game with an xG of something mad like 3.88 but fail to score! Imagine how good they would be if they had a natural goal scoring striker.
Brighton hammered West Ham 4-0 in their last home game, but the game prior to that here against Fulham was a classic Brighton game! They finished the game with an xG of 2.77 and only conceded 0.29 but lost 1-0! I know it’s frustrating Brighton not taking their chances, but on paper there is only one winner here in my opinion. Crystal Palace are conceding an average xG of 1.7 this season and only creating an average of 1.0. You’d expect to see stats like that from sides in a relegation battle, and Crystal Palace could possibly slip down the table like Everton soon if they don’t change things – they definitely have work to do during the summer in the transfer market. Brighton have the opposite stats – they are creating an average xG of 2.0 this season and only conceding 1.2. I just can’t see Crystal Palace getting a result here, and the 1.56 on Brighton is a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brighton to beat Crystal Palace at 1.56 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BriCry
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brighton are winless in their last seven Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace (D5 L2), with the last three all finishing 1-1. It’s their longest ever winless run against the Eagles in their league history.
● Crystal Palace have lost just one of their five Premier League away games against Brighton (W2 D2), a 3-1 loss in December 2018.
● Brighton haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Crystal Palace, though they’ve also failed to score in just one of those 10 games.
● Each of the first eight Premier League goals scored in meetings between Crystal Palace and Brighton were netted in the first half. Since then, just four of the 18 goals scored in this fixture have been in the opening 45 minutes.
● Having won just three of their first eight home Premier League games this season (D2 L3), Brighton have since won three of their last four at the Amex (L1), keeping a clean sheet in each victory.
● Crystal Palace have won just two of their last 14 Premier League away games (D5 L7), and are yet to win on the road in the league in 2023 (D1 L3). Indeed, no side has fewer away points in the Premier League this year so far than the Eagles (1, level with Everton and Leeds United).
● Crystal Palace have become the first team on record (since 2003-04) to fail to register a single shot on target in three consecutive Premier League games. Overall, the Eagles have failed to have a shot on target in five different Premier League matches this season – since 2003-04, only West Bromwich Albion (7 in 2015-16) have failed to do so more times in a single campaign in the top-flight.
● Crystal Palace remain without a Premier League win in 2023, drawing five and losing five of their 10 games this year. It’s the Eagles’ longest run without a league victory since a streak of 14 between December 2015 and April 2016 under Alan Pardew.
● Brighton’s Alexis Mac Allister has scored seven goals in 21 Premier League games this season, more than he had in his previous 63 appearances in the competition (6). The Argentinian is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League matches for the first time.
● Against no side has Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha scored more goals in his club career in all competitions than against Brighton (8, level with Leicester). Zaha has scored a penalty in both of his last two Premier League appearances against the Seagulls; only against Leicester (Feb 2019) and Wolves (Oct 2022) has he ever found the net in three consecutive appearances against an opponent in the top-flight.
SOUTHAMPTON V BRENTFORD
7.30pm We have an exceptionally open betting heat here as Southampton host Brentford. Both sides had their own drama at the weekend, and Brentford did Southampton no favours at all losing away to Everton. That game looked very close looking at the score line, but it was actually a very open game! They both finished with an xG of over 2.0 in an entertaining affair. Brentford will say that they were unlucky to lose, but they didn’t create enough compared to Everton to say they should have won the game. Southampton managed to pick up a draw away to Manchester United which is always a real bonus – obviously they were helped by the red card for Casemiro in the first half, but they still had a big job to do after that. Getting a result at Old Trafford is always tough, especially for the smaller clubs. A lot of sides in the relegation battle picked up points at the weekend, so it wasn’t a big step forward for Southampton but they do stay in touch and in the mix. A win here for example who see them jump into 16th. That win for Bournemouth over Liverpool was also a big blow for Southampton at the weekend! Even with the draw against Manchester United, it wasn’t a great weekend for them the way other results went!
As you would imagine given where Southampton are sitting in the table, they do have poor stats this season. They haven’t been conceding goals for fun, but they have been really limited up front. Their average xG created is low at only 1.1, and they aren’t even converting those chances. Brentford have been much better up front because their average xG is 1.9 which is an impressive figure. They have been very entertaining, conceding plenty of chances too. We have a very open market here, but Brentford are the favourites at 2.6. Having home advantage isn’t really an advantage for Southampton because they have actually managed more points away from home this season! I know Brentford have put in most of their good performances at home this season, but the 2.6 is a very good value bet here in my opinion, and it’s worth a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Brentford to beat Southampton at 2.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SouBre
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● All three Premier League meetings between Southampton and Brentford have been won by the home side, with each victory being by a margin of three goals. Saints won this exact fixture 4-1 last season.
● Brentford have won their last two league games against Southampton, including a 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture this season. They last did the league double over Saints in 1958-59, while they’ve never won three in a row against them before in league competition.
● Brentford are winless in all seven of their midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Premier League games. They lost all five such matches last season, while drawing both games so far this term.
● After beating Leicester 1-0, Southampton could win back-to-back home games in the Premier League for the first time since February 2022. However, Saints have fewer home points (9) and home wins (2) than any other side in the top-flight this term.
● Brentford lost for the first time in 13 Premier League matches against Everton last time out – the Bees haven’t lost consecutive games in the competition since February 2022.
● Southampton are looking to keep three consecutive Premier League clean sheets for the first time since a run from December 2020 to January 2021. Their two clean sheets in their last two games are as many as they had kept in their first 24 league matches of the season beforehand.
● Southampton have picked up seven points in four Premier League games under Rubén Sellés (W2 D1 L1), as many as they had in their previous 12 league matches before the Spaniard’s first in charge (W2 D1 L9).
● Carlos Alcaraz could become only the second player to score in each of his first three home Premier League appearances for Southampton, after David Hirst, who did so when Saints played at the Dell in November 1997.
● Bryan Mbeumo has been directly involved in three goals in his three Premier League games against Southampton (1 goal, 2 assists), scoring and assisting in Brentford’s 3-0 win earlier this season.
● No player has scored more than two Premier League goals at St. Mary’s Stadium for Southampton this season (Carlos Alcaraz, Joe Aribo, Romain Perraud all 2 each), the joint-lowest tally of goals any team’s top scorer at home in the competition has netted in 2022-23, along with Everton (Demarai Gray, Dwight McNeil both 2).
