SATURDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Saturday’s games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet. Starting with Fulham v Leeds at 12.30pm.
FULHAM V LEEDS
12.30pm We have a shorter than usual Saturday fixture list on BETDAQ Betting Exchange in the Premier League this weekend, as it’s an FA Cup weekend. While we don’t have any games that will have a major impact towards the top of the table on Saturday, we do have some massive games towards the bottom of the table. We start the day with one of the sides in the relegation battle as Leeds travel to take on Fulham. After beating Wolves 4-2 and Nottingham Forest 2-1, Leeds were heading in a very good direct but losses against Crystal Palace and Liverpool have dragged them back into danger again. I don’t think there’s any shame losing to Liverpool, but the reality is they conceded 11 goals in two games now and morale must surely be low. Leeds have been “lucky” in the sense that Everton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Southampton all also lost while they were losing against Palace and Liverpool, so they remain two points clear of the bottom three. Fulham finally broke their losing run last weekend against Everton, but they still conceded an xG of 2.45 and that performance didn’t answer the questions about their defence this season! I spoke about this last week, but Fulham have been conceding an average xG of 1.9 while only conceding an actual average of 1.4.
Even though the xG difference is only 0.5, but that’s a lot of points. For example, the xG table has Fulham sitting in 17th just outside of the bottom three. You usually see an average xG conceded of close to 2.0 from sides in a relegation battle, and this is something Fulham have to fix over the summer. Leeds actually have very similar stats – their average xG conceded is 1.8 and they are creating an average of 1.4 – the same xG created as Fulham. I have to say Fulham have been on a poor run lately, and they have been a good team to take on. Their xG conceded against Everton doesn’t change that view, despite them winning. Obviously to lay Fulham here, you have to worry about Leeds away from home. They have only managed nine points away from home all season. Everything considered, I still feel the 2.4 is a little short on Fulham given their performance level recently. I’m definitely keep stakes low however; Leeds have conceded too many goals lately and their away form is a worry. A small bet from a value point of view is the correct decision in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Fulham to beat Leeds at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FulLee
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 3-2 win at Elland Road in October, Fulham are looking to complete the league double over Leeds for the first time since 1959-60, when the Yorkshire side were relegated from the top-flight.
● Leeds won this exact fixture 2-1 in 2020-21, but haven’t won consecutive league visits to Fulham since a run of three between 1953 and 1956 in the second tier.
● Fulham have already beaten Leeds twice this season, winning 3-2 in the league and 2-0 in the FA Cup. As a top-flight side, the Cottagers have beaten a team three times in one season on three previous occasions – Blackburn in 1961-62, Charlton in 2002-03 and Norwich in 2013-14.
● Leeds have lost all five of their Premier League games in London this season, conceding 16 goals in the process. The last time they lost five in a row in a single campaign in the capital was in 2020-21, a run which they ended with a 2-1 win at Fulham.
● Fulham have lost their last two Premier League home games, as many as they had in their previous nine (W4 D3). Their five home league defeats this season have either come in London derbies (v Spurs, Arsenal and West Ham), or against teams currently in the top four (Newcastle and Man Utd).
● Leeds have conceded 16 goals in four Premier League games in April 2023, conceding at least four goals in three of those matches. The Whites already hold the record for most goals conceded in a single calendar month in the competition, shipping 20 in February 2022.
● Only three teams have conceded more away goals than Leeds in the Premier League this season (30), with no side keeping fewer clean sheets on the road than the Whites (1).
● Leeds striker Patrick Bamford has been directly involved in six goals in his last four league starts against Fulham, scoring four and assisting two. He’s both scored and assisted a goal in both of his Premier League starts against the Cottagers.
● In Fulham’s 3-1 win against Everton last time out, Harry Wilson scored his first league goal since March 2022, and first Premier League goal since January 2020 while at Bournemouth. He last scored in consecutive league games in September 2021, and last did so in the Premier League in August 2019 (his first two appearances in the competition).
● Having scored two goals in his first 14 appearances in the Premier League, Luis Sinisterra has since scored twice in his last three for Leeds. The Colombian has, however, only won one of the four games in which he has found the net in the competition (D1 L2), scoring the winner against Nottingham Forest earlier this month.
BRENTFORD V ASTON VILLA
3pm We have four games kicking off at 3pm, and we start with Brentford hosting Aston Villa. Unai Emery has really got Aston Villa playing some nice football since taking over, he’s really highlighted what a poor job Steven Gerrard was doing there with hindsight, and I think the 3-0 win over Newcastle last weekend just highlighted what a fantastic job he is doing. Villa have put five wins together now, and when the likes of Liverpool and Chelsea have been dropping points Villa have ended up sitting in sixth! It’s actually hard to believe that they are in the battle for a European spot – when Emery took over it seemed an odd decision to be honest, he was leaving Villarreal for a Premier League side sitting around 14th – closer to the relegation battle than European football but look at them now. They must arrive into this fixture full of confidence, and they have been creating a huge amount of chances under Emery. Some of their recent xG figures have been 1.93, 3.20 and 1.98 – figures you don’t usually see from Villa! On the flip side, Brentford come into this game on a losing run after putting three losses together. They did have to play Manchester United and Newcastle in that run, but they would have been disappointed to lose 2-0 to Wolves last weekend. They did finish the game with a higher xG figure than they conceded, so it’s not all doom-and-gloom – it’s five games without a win though, and now they bump into an in-form Villa side.
We have a lot of open betting heats this weekend, but this is the most open betting heat of Saturday. I was very surprised to see Brentford trading as the favourites here – Villa really look the value here at 2.92 and I would nearly have them as favourites. Brentford are obviously a tempting lay at 2.66 to have the draw on our side, but Villa have been creating so many chances recently the 2.92 is hard to ignore. Brentford are a much better side with home advantage compared to away from home, but Villa also sit in the top six on away form this season, and that’s even taking into account before Emery took over. I feel we’re getting enough value at 2.92 to take the chance with a Villa win bet rather than the Brentford lay, but I’m not going to go crazy and have a Max Bet on. It is worth a confident bet though – we have an in-form side against a side conceding chances, and everything points to a Villa win here in my opinion.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Aston Villa to beat Brentford at 2.92 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreAst
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After losing their first three home league games against Aston Villa between 1935 and 1947, Brentford have won their last four in a row against them (since 2017).
● Aston Villa’s 4-0 win over Brentford in the reverse fixture ended an eight-game winless league run against the Bees – they last did the league double over them in 1946-47.
● Aston Villa have earned seven points from their three Premier League away games in London under Unai Emery, beating Spurs and Chelsea and drawing with West Ham. They’d only earned seven points from their previous 13 top-flight visits to the capital before his arrival (W2 D1 L10).
● Brentford have lost their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 21 (W8 D10). The Bees last lost more consecutively in January/February last season (5).
● Aston Villa have won seven of their last eight Premier League games (D1), keeping six clean sheets and conceding just two goals in that run. They’ve won their last five in a row, last winning more consecutively in the top-flight between December and February in 1989-90 (7).
● Aston Villa have won six of their eight Premier League away games under Unai Emery (D1 L1). Since the weekend of his first game in charge on the road (12/13 November), no side has won more than the Villans (6), with only Arsenal (20) picking up more points (19).
● Brentford have only failed to score in two of their last 17 Premier League home games, finding the net in each of their last nine since a goalless draw with Chelsea in October.
● Ollie Watkins has scored 11 goals in his last 12 Premier League games for Aston Villa, with his 14 overall this season his joint-best in a single top-flight campaign (also 14 in 2020-21). The last Villa player to score 15+ goals in a top-flight season was Christian Benteke (19 in 2012-13), while the last English player to do so for the club was David Platt (19 in 1990-91).
● Mathias Jensen has scored four goals in his last six home league games for Brentford. All five of his Premier League strikes have come at home so far this term, the joint-most goals scored by a player yet to score on the road, along with West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen.
● Jacob Ramsey has been involved in five goals in his last five Premier League games for Aston Villa (2 goals, 3 assists), as many as he had in his previous 37 (3 goals, 2 assists).
CRYSTAL PALACE V EVERTON
3pm We have another game that will have an impact on the relegation battle next as Crystal Palace host Everton. It would have been a massive disappointment for Everton to lose last weekend against Fulham with home advantage – especially as Fulham went into that game off the back of a losing run. Sean Dyche won’t be unhappy with the performance, they created an xG of 2.45 which was higher than they conceded – it was just one of those games and you move on. They face a very difficult task here though against a Crystal Palace side rejuvenated under Roy Hodgson! I wasn’t expected to see Hodgson take over at the age of 75, but I wasn’t expecting to see Palace put three wins together scoring nine goals based off the rest of their performances this season! With hindsight, it’s clear that Vieira had lost the dressing room – is there any way the players respond like this without that being the case? Apart from Liverpool who playing Nottingham Forest at home, Crystal Palace are the shortest priced favourite on Saturday but they aren’t odds on. They are trading 2.12 at the time of writing – a couple of weeks ago that would have felt very short, but Palace are a side worth supporting at the moment. We landed a nice bet on them to beat Southampton away from home last weekend.
I would be less confident on the Palace win here because Everton have been playing good football since Dyche took over. They are creating more chances than ever, and they basically just have to start taking their chances. We have two sides here I wouldn’t mind supporting against most clubs around them in the Premier League at the moment. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market, and I like Over 2.5 goals at 2.47. I was surprised to see Unders trading so short between two sides creating a lot at the moment. Everton obviously have more to play for at the moment, and they wouldn’t turn down a draw but Dyche has been playing a more open game under Everton than we know him for at Burnley. Palace are playing open and free football, and that is bringing goals. I’d actually be surprised if we didn’t see goals here, and the 2.47 is worth a confident bet.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 2.47 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CryEve
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Crystal Palace have won just one of their last 16 Premier League games against Everton (D7 L8), though it did come in this exact fixture last season (3-1).
● Following their 3-0 win at Goodison Park in October, Everton are looking to complete their first league double over Crystal Palace since 2004-05.
● Crystal Palace have won their last two home games against Everton in all competitions, as many as they had in their previous 15 (D6 L7). They’ve never won three consecutive home games against the Toffees before.
● Crystal Palace have won all three of their Premier League games since Roy Hodgson’s return to the club, as many as they had in their previous 18 (D5 L10). They last won four in a row in June 2020, in Hodgson’s previous stint at the club.
● Having won two of their first three Premier League games under Sean Dyche (L1), Everton have won just one of their subsequent eight (D3 L4). All three of their league wins under Dyche have been at home, with the Toffees currently winless in 11 Premier League away games (D4 L7).
● Crystal Palace have won six Premier League games having conceded the first goal this season, the most of any side and their joint-most in a single campaign, along with 2014-15. Only five teams have ever won more such games in a season, most recently Manchester United in 2020-21 (10).
● Crystal Palace have scored nine goals in three Premier League games under Roy Hodgson, at an average of three per game. Before his arrival back at the club, the Eagles were averaging just 0.8 goals per game this season, and were the joint-lowest scorers in the division (22 goals in 28 games).
● Two of Crystal Palace’s three highest expected goals totals in the Premier League this season have come in their three games under Roy Hodgson (3.2 v Leeds, 2.4 v Leicester). They’re averaging 19 shots per game, 2.2 xG per game and 6.3 shots on target per game under Hodgson this term, compared to 9.9 shots, 0.9 xG and 3.2 shots on target before his return.
● Eberechi Eze has scored three goals in his last two Premier League games for Crystal Palace, as many as he had in his previous 21. He’s looking to score in three consecutive appearances in English league football for the first time.
● Dwight McNeil has scored two goals in his last five Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 71 appearances. He’s one of just two players to score more than once for Everton under Sean Dyche, along with Abdoulaye Doucouré.
LEICESTER V WOLVES
3pm We could have called this a massive relegation battle a few games ago, but Wolves look pretty safe now after wins against Chelsea and Brentford. They start the weekend with a seven point cushion over the bottom three, and games are running out too. One side definitely feeling the pressure of games running out is Leicester who are firmly in the bottom three after eight losses from their last nine games. It’s been an absolutely shocking run at the worst time possible, and a change in manager hasn’t really changed anything either. No “new manager bounce” is always a very bad sign for a squad, and they are now in massive danger of going down. They have a pretty good run in – they have to play Newcastle and Liverpool which will be difficult fixtures but then they also play Leeds, Everton, Fulham and West Ham after today – they are sides all on their level, and to be honest you couldn’t ask for a better run in really. It’s very much still in their own hands to stay up – they just need to start winning games. That is definitely easier said than done, especially when Leicester have been playing so poorly. They will say their performance in the second half against Manchester City last weekend was progress, but the game was over at half-time after City were 3-0 up and they had a Champions League game midweek.
We have another open market here. Leicester are the favourites at 2.52 at the time of writing with Wolves trading 3.1 and the draw is 3.4. Wolves haven’t been superb away from home this season, so I’m going to keep stakes low here but I’m keen to take on Leicester at 2.52. I just can’t have them that short given the way that they haven’t been playing this season, and home advantage hasn’t been a factor for them either this season. They have only managed 12 points from 15 home games this season, which is only better than Southampton’s record who are bottom of the table. They were totally outplayed by Bournemouth in their last home game here, and Wolves must arrive here with confidence after winning their last two games. It’s isn’t a game to go mad with stakes however; Wolves usually grind out results rather than blow sides away, but nevertheless Leicester haven’t got much going for them this season and they are worth laying at 2.52.
The Striker Says:
One point lay (liability) Leicester to beat Wolves at 2.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LeiWol
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● After their 4-0 win at Molineux in October, Leicester are looking to complete the league double over Wolves for the first time since 1995-96, and for the first time in the top-flight since 1980-81.
● Wolves have won just one of their last 25 away league games against Leicester (D9 L15), failing to score in five of their last six visits (including the last four) since a 4-1 Championship win in May 2007.
● Wolves have never scored in five Premier League away games against Leicester – only Birmingham have visited a side more without ever finding the net in the competition (7 against Manchester United).
● Leicester have lost eight of their last nine Premier League games (D1) and 12 of their last 16 (W2 D2), with all 12 defeats coming in three separate runs of four in a row. Overall they’ve lost 20 Premier League games this season – they last lost more in 1994-95 (25), while they last lost more in a 38-game league campaign in 1914-15 (24 in the second tier).
● Leicester are the only side without a clean sheet since the resumption of the Premier League following the World Cup, having kept a shutout in five of their six matches before the break. It’s their longest run of conceding a goal in consecutive league games since a run of 21 between April and December 1994, which included their first ever 18 Premier League matches.
● Wolves have won their last two Premier League games, beating Chelsea 1-0 and Brentford 2-0. They’ve not won three in a row since January 2022, while they’ve not done so without conceding since June 2020.
● Diego Costa scored his first Premier League goal for Wolves in their 2-0 win against Brentford last time out. He last scored in consecutive top-flight matches in February 2018 (for Atlético de Madrid), and last did so in the Premier League in March 2017.
● Harvey Barnes is Leicester’s top Premier League goalscorer with 10 goals this season, with James Maddison one behind him on nine. It could be the first time since their return to the top-flight in 2014 they’ve had two players reach double figures for league goals, without Jamie Vardy being one of them.
● Jamie Vardy has scored three goals in his last four Premier League games against Wolves, with Leicester winning all three matches. His only league goal so far this season was in the Foxes’ 4-0 win in the reverse fixture.
● Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez has had more shots on target (9) and the joint-highest xG total (2.6) of any player yet to score in the Premier League this season. He’s not scored in any of his last 21 Premier League games, since netting against Watford in March last season.
LIVERPOOL V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
3pm We have no 5-30pm kick off in the Premier League this week because of the FA Cup Semi-Final at Wembley, so we finish the Saturday action with Liverpool hosting Nottingham Forest. Liverpool’s problems have been well documented this season, but they are currently trading as short as 1.2 at the time of writing which is the shortest price in the Premier League this weekend! Manchester City are busy in the FA Cup, so there is no other side likely to be trading around those odds anyway! While Liverpool have had major issues at the back all season, they are unlikely to be taken advantage of here by a Nottingham Forest side struggling for form at the wrong time. They have slipped into the bottom three, and they do have a pretty tricky fixture list to finish the season. After playing Liverpool here, they have to play Brighton, Chelsea and Arsenal – they also play Crystal Palace who look a different side since Roy Hodgson came back too. You’d have to be majorly worried for them, going back to the Championship would be a huge blow given all the money they spent and their huge wage bill given all their signings!
The major problem for Forest has been their away form. They have only managed six points away from home all season which is the worst return in the Premier League. It’s hard to see how they are going to get anything here, and I feel this is a case of how many goals Liverpool can score rather than will they win. I couldn’t put anyone off including Liverpool at 1.2 in their weekend Acca – they look banker material. Forest conceded an xG of 3.41 last weekend against Manchester United, and Liverpool arrive into this fixture in good form too. They were superb in the second half against Arsenal, finishing the game with an xG of 4.40 and should have won. Then they put six past Leeds – this seems the perfect fixture for Liverpool to be honest. A side dodgy at the back, and don’t offer a huge threat to Liverpool’s poor defence. Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more and win) is trading 3.2 in the Correct Score market and this looks a very nice position to finish the day in the Premier League!
The Striker Says:
Two points win Any Other Home Win Correct Score at 3.2 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LivNot
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 23 home league games against Nottingham Forest (W18 D5) since a 2-0 loss in February 1969.
● Nottingham Forest won the reverse fixture against Liverpool 1-0 in October – only twice before have they ever done the league double over the Reds, doing so in 1910-11 and 1962-63.
● Only two promoted teams have ever done the Premier League double over Liverpool – Newcastle United in 1993-94 and Blackpool in 2010-11.
● Liverpool have lost just one of their last 37 Premier League home games (W27 D9), a 2-1 loss against Leeds in October. They’ve also only failed to score in one of these 37 games, a goalless draw with Chelsea in January.
● Nottingham Forest are winless in their last 10 Premier League games (D3 L7), their longest such streak since a run of 19 between September 1998 and January 1999.
● Nottingham Forest are without a clean sheet in their last 10 Premier League games. In fact, Forest are winless in all 24 league games in which they’ve conceded this season (D8 L16), with all six of their victories being to nil.
● Liverpool have scored 39% of their Premier League goals this season (22/56) in their wins over Bournemouth in August (9-0), Man Utd in March (7-0) and Leeds last time out (6-1). In those three matches, they scored 13.2 more goals than their expected goals tally (22 from 8.8 xG), whereas in in all other Premier League games this season, they have underperformed their xG by 12.7 (34 goals from 46.7 xG).
● Away from home in the Premier League this season, Nottingham Forest have the fewest points (6), joint-fewest wins (1), fewest goals scored (5), worst goal difference (-31) and second highest number of goals conceded (36).
● Mohamed Salah has been involved in nine goals in his last five home games for Liverpool in all competitions (6 goals, 3 assists), scoring in all five matches. The Egyptian himself was the last Liverpool player to score in six in a row at Anfield, doing so in March 2018.
● Against Leeds last time out, Trent Alexander-Arnold recorded his 50th Premier League assist, becoming the third-youngest player to hit that total in the competition (24 years, 192 days), after Cesc Fàbregas (22y 145d) and Wayne Rooney (24y 84d). Alexander-Arnold has three assists in his last two league matches, after having only assisted two in his first 27 this season beforehand.
