SATURDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews Saturday’s games between ROMA v AC MILAN, REAL MADRID v ALMERIA and BARCELONA v REAL BETIS all with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ROMA V AC MILAN
5pm We have a cracking Saturday from Europe this week on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have Real Madrid and Barcelona both in action in La Liga, but we start in Serie A with a huge game as Roma host AC Milan. After a very good week for Roma getting through to the Europa League Semi-Finals, they suffered a setback last weekend losing away to Atalanta. At the same time, AC Milan and Inter Milan both won and now Roma start the weekend sitting outside the top four. Juventus getting their 15 point deduction overturned was a massive blow to Roma – although Juventus have lost their last three games and only start the weekend three points ahead of Roma. Jose Mourinho’s men are only out of the top four on goal difference as they have the same amount of points as AC Milan, but it was a bitter blow. Inter are only two points behind as well. You have to say whatever happens, it’s going to be a fantastic finish to the season in the top four race – plenty of drama incoming! You only have to look at the situation to realise this is the biggest game in Europe this weekend – Roma can’t afford to lose especially with home advantage. The stadium will be absolutely rocking.
It’s not a surprise that we have an exceptionally open market. There’s only eight ticks between the sides at the time of writing. AC Milan are marginal favourites at 2.88 with Roma trading 2.96 and the draw is 3.1. There really isn’t much between the sides here – they obviously have the same amount of points in the table, but even their under-lining numbers are very similar. AC Milan are creating an average xG of 1.7 this season and Roma’s is just a little under that at 1.6. Roma are back at the back with an average xG conceded of 0.8, but AC Milan still have an impressive figure at 1.1. It was very unusual for Roma to concede three goals last weekend, and I expect this to be a low scoring affair. There’s so much at stake, I can’t see either side playing an open game. Plus AC Milan haven’t been creating a lot of chances recently – I know they have had plenty of wins, but for example they finished their game last weekend over Lecce with a lower xG figure than they conceded. This game screams Under 2.5 goals, and I’m happy to back it at 1.6.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.6 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/RomAcm
REAL MADRID V ALMERIA
5.30pm We switch over to La Liga next as Real Madrid host Almeria. We had plenty of drama at the top of the table midweek as Real Madrid and Barcelona both lost – we landed a nice bet on Over 2.5 goals in the Real Madrid game, and it was shrewd to stay away from backing them in the match odds market. As I said in my preview of that game, and it applies here too, Real’s sole focus will be on the Champions League Semi-Final and the Copa del Rey Final from here – 11 points at the top of La Liga is too big a gap to catch Barcelona so I can’t see them having a good mindset going into La Liga games. They will still outclass sides, but I would expect them to play a very open and attacking game. They will aim to entertain – they definitely did that with six goals midweek, shame they conceded four of them! Once again we saw high xG figures in a Real Madrid game, and Almeria will be hoping to get some luck and get a result here. There’s a huge gulf in class between the sides, but Real will play an open game and attack – especially with home advantage. I can see them leaving gaps at the back, but whether or not Almeria are good enough to take full advantage of that is another question. They will likely score, but fail to get a result. Almeria are definitely in the relegation mix, but that win midweek over Getafe was absolutely massive for them, especially away from home and it gave them a three point cushion over the bottom three at the time.
Real Madrid come into this game trading massively odds on. They are trading as short as 1.18 at the time of writing, and although it’s hard to see past a home win here I wouldn’t be rushing to include Real in any weekend Acca’s given the situation at the top of the table. As I said above, Real will play an open game and Almeria can find the net at some stage. The market is expecting goals, likely linked to an easy Real Madrid win based on their price in the match odds market – Over 2.5 goals is trading as short as 1.39. The bet I like however is Both Teams To Score at 2.12. Real have conceded xG figures of 2.56, 1.22 and 1.91 in their last three games; I feel they’ll give away a few chances here – especially if they go 2-0 up for example. Almeria are obviously a limited side, but they have been finding the net recently. They have scored in their last seven La Liga games, and their xG figures have been decent too – they created 2.26 midweek for example. We should see plenty of chances here, and the 2.12 is worth a confident bet in my opinion.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Both Teams To Score at 2.12 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ReaAlm
BARCELONA V REAL BETIS
8pm We stay in La Liga to finish a cracking Saturday as Barcelona host Real Betis. I wasn’t surprised to see Real Madrid switch off and lose midweek, but I was surprised to see Barcelona lose. I know 11 points is a huge gap and they can probably afford to coast along, but they have nothing to Europe to distract them or even a domestic Cup. Plus winning La Liga after everything the club has been through the past two years would be a massive achievement. They put in a poor performance away to Rayo Vallecano, they only finished the game with an xG of 0.88 and that’s only one win from their last four games now. Real Betis have been having a poor run of things at the moment, but I was surprised to see Barcelona trading as short as 1.38 when I clicked into the market here! I wouldn’t be rushing to back them at that price, and I wouldn’t include them in your weekend Acca! I know Real Betis have been pretty average, but Barcelona haven’t been firing lately and the 1.38 just feel a few ticks too short. Real Betis played out a very boring 0-0 midweek against Real Sociedad, and that left them with a six point gap to the top four. They are running out of games, and to be honest that was a must win game for them.
Without much value on offer in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets. Barcelona actually haven’t had many high scoring games recently – midweek was the first time in four games that Over 2.5 goals won. Over 2.5 goals is trading favourite here at 1.7, and that looks about the right price. I feel we’re getting some value in the handicap market here because Barcelona are so short in the match odds market. I can see Barcelona grinding out a result, but Real Betis can keep the score line respect. I like the 1.9 on Real Betis +1.5 goals here, but I’m very keen to keep stakes small. It’s clear that Real Betis haven’t been at their best recently, and the angle to the bet is Barcelona haven’t been scoring a lot lately – I still don’t fully trust Real Betis but the 1.9 is big enough to have a small investment.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Real Betis +1.5 goals to beat Barcelona at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarBet
