SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s games with FACTMAN stats and a recommended BETDAQ bet.
BRENTFORD V WEST HAM
2pm We have another great Super Sunday in store on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with three games from the Premier League. All eyes will be on Manchester City and Arsenal as they take on Everton and Brighton as they battle for the title, but we start the day with Brentford hosting West Ham. The Hammers pulled off a great 1-0 win over Manchester United last weekend, thanks largely to a huge error from David de Gea, but that gave them a nice cushion on the bottom three. They started this weekend sitting seven points away from the relegation zone, and that has allowed them to focus on the Europa Conference League Semi-Final. From that point of view, this fixture lands in the middle of the two legs so it’s hard to know what David Moyes will be thinking with this fixture. I would suggest nobody will be risked that is carrying a knock or anything like that, and we might get some market movement around the team news. A bigger worry from a backing West Ham point of view is their away form has been terrible this season. They’ve only managed 12 points from their 17 away games this season – that puts them just above the bottom three on the away form table.
Brentford come into the game as the clear favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on. The home win is trading 2.16, West Ham are 3.75 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. It’s hard to make a case for West Ham here in my opinion. The fixture falls at a bad time in between their Europa Conference League Semi-Final, and then their away record this season is terrible. I read an interesting thread on Twitter this week saying if Declan Rice was really worth £120 million West Ham wouldn’t have been in a relegation fight. Midfield is such an important position, it’s not like he’s a world class striker that isn’t getting service – he should be able to carry the team himself if he’s worth that much. It was an interesting debate. For this game though, I like Brentford at 2.16 – they have been creating a lot this season, their average xG is 1.7, and while they do concede a lot of chances too I don’t see West Ham being able to take advantage of that. I’m not going crazy with the stakes, but Brentford are good value at the odds.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Brentford to beat West Ham at 2.16 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BreWhu
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Brentford have won five of their last seven league games against West Ham in a run stretching back to 1953 (D1 L1) and have won all three of their meetings with the Hammers in the Premier League.
● West Ham won 1-0 at Brentford in the FA Cup this season – they’ve won twice away from home against a fellow top-flight side in a season just three times previously, against Blackpool in 1966-67, Ipswich Town in 1985-86 and Tottenham Hotspur in 2013-14.
● West Ham have lost seven of their last eight away London derbies in the Premier League (W1), including four of five in 2022-23. The Hammers have never previously lost as many as five away games against fellow London opposition in a single league season.
● Having lost just five of their first 28 Premier League games this season (W10 D13), Brentford have since lost four of their last seven (W2 D1). At home, however, the Bees have only lost one of their last 13 league matches (W6 D6), a 1-2 defeat to Newcastle in April.
● West Ham are looking to pick up back-to-back Premier League wins for only a second time this season, previously doing so in October. However, the Hammers have only won one of their last six Premier League games that have come within three days of them playing in the UEFA Europa Conference League beforehand (D3 L2), although that was the most recent of those matches (4-0 v Bournemouth in April).
● Seven of the 11 Premier League matches to see the lowest ball in-play time this season have involved Brentford, with their defeat to Liverpool last time out seeing the ball in play for just 43 minutes and 10 seconds, the lowest of any top-flight match in 2022-23 so far.
● Ivan Toney has been involved in each of Brentford’s last four Premier League goals against West Ham, scoring twice and assisting the other two. He could become the fourth player to both score and assist a goal in three consecutive Premier League games against an opponent, after Steven Gerrard v Newcastle (2007-2008), Theo Walcott against West Ham (2011-2013) and Roberto Firmino v Arsenal (2017).
● No West Ham player has scored (6) or been directly involved (9) in more Premier League goals this season than ex-Brentford man Saïd Benrahma (6 goals and 3 assists). Indeed, Benrahma has been involved in more shot-ending sequences of play than any other player for the Hammers this term (127 from open play).
● Only Erling Haaland (47% for Man City) has either scored or assisted a higher proportion of a team’s goals in the Premier League this season than Ivan Toney for Brentford (46%, 24/52 – 20 goals, 4 assists).
● Jarrod Bowen has been directly involved in 49 goals for West Ham in the Premier League (26 goals and 23 assists), and could become just the sixth player to reach 50+ for the club in the competition, after Michail Antonio (91), Mark Noble (82), Paolo Di Canio (78), Trevor Sinclair (62) and Carlton Cole (59).
EVERTON V MANCHESTER CITY
2pm This is arguably the most important fixture of the weekend as Everton host Manchester City – it’s a game that will have a big impact on the relegation battle and the title race! The market is fully expecting a Manchester City win – they are trading 1.38 at the time of writing which is the shortest price in the Premier League this weekend. City only drawing with Real Madrid midweek in the Champions League does add a bit of spice to this fixture – next week is going to be absolutely massive for them, and it will be interesting to see what Guardiola does here. They still have a title race on their hands after all, and they can’t afford to drop points. I doubt Guardiola was expecting to put the Champions League tie to bed in the Semi-Final, but betting wise the game was a lot closer than the odds suggest – next week will be very interesting. Real Madrid really turn up for the big moments! Everton will come into this fixture buzzing after a 5-1 win over Brighton last weekend. It was a crazy game, they conceded an xG as high as 3.44 so it could have been very different if Brighton took their chances in an open game, but three points was a huge bonus away to a side like Brighton, and now Everton have an excellent chance at staying up. Obviously this fixture is extremely difficult, and I’m sure they’ll view anything from this game as a bonus.
Everton have been involved in a lot of high scoring games recently – their last game games have finished with score lines of 4-1, 2-2 and 5-1. I felt the market would be expecting goals here but I was surprised to see Over 2.5 goals trading as big as 1.7. Both Teams To Score is also a nice option at 2.04 because Everton have created a lot of chances since Sean Dyche took over, especially at home. They are going up against the best side in the league here however, so I’m not going to go mad with the stakes here! I couldn’t put anyone off Both Teams To Score at the odds, but I like Over 2.5 goals at 1.7. City have been creating a host of chances, and they have been banging in goals for fun. Also I can see Everton helping out by scoring at some stage too. City might be looking at this game to win with as little drama as possible, but Everton have been playing a very open game lately and we can see goals here.
The Striker Says:
Two points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EveMci
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Everton have won just one of their last 19 Premier League meetings with Manchester City (D5 L13), a 4-0 home win in January 2017.
● Manchester City have won their last five Premier League away games against Everton, as many as they had in their previous 26 top-flight visits to Goodison Park (D7 L14). They could become just the second side to win six in a row away against Everton, after Portsmouth between 1948 and 1956.
● Everton drew 1-1 with Man City in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium – not since 2016-17 have they avoided defeat in both Premier League meetings with the Citizens, which included a 1-1 away draw.
● Everton won 5-1 at Brighton in their last Premier League match, last winning consecutive games back in October. They’ve won just four of their 46 Premier League games against sides starting the day top of the table, but one of those was against Arsenal this season in Sean Dyche’s first game in charge.
● Manchester City have won each of their last 10 Premier League games, the fifth time they have had a winning run of 10+ matches under Pep Guardiola. The only other managers to have had more than one 10+ game winning streak in Premier League history are Jürgen Klopp (3), Alex Ferguson (2), and Arsène Wenger (2).
● No side has scored fewer home goals than Everton in the Premier League this season (15), with the Toffees scoring more than once on just one occasion at Goodison Park so far this term (3-0 v Crystal Palace in October).
● Having been unbeaten in his first two Premier League meetings with Man City in the 2014-15 campaign (W1 D1), Everton boss Sean Dyche has since lost 11 of his last 12 against them in the competition (D1).
● Alex Iwobi has provided a league-high seven assists for Everton this season – the last Toffees player to provide more in a Premier League campaign was Ross Barkley (8 in 2016-17), while it’s the joint-most a Nigerian player has ever provided in a single campaign (Peter Odemwingie also 7 in 2010-11).
● Since Sean Dyche’s first game in charge in February, Dwight McNeil has been involved in more Premier League goals for Everton than any other player (7 – 5 goals, 2 assists).
● Man City’s Riyad Mahrez has provided nine assists in the Premier League this season, including four in his last three appearances. Having delivered 11 in 2015-16 and 10 in 2017-18, he could become the third African player to reach double figures in three separate campaigns in the competition, after Didier Drogba and Mohamed Salah.
ARSENAL V BRIGHTON
4.30pm We finish the weekend in the Premier League with a cracker as Arsenal host Brighton. This should be a high quality fixture between two excellent sides who like to play an open and attacking game. Despite recent setbacks, Arsenal are fighting hard in the title race and they can hanging on at the moment. They start the day one point behind Manchester City, and every Arsenal fan will be glued to the Everton v City game earlier in the day – that being said, City still have a game in hand as well. It’s clear that Arsenal were suffering with nerves in the title race when they dropped points against West Ham and Southampton – since losing to Manchester City they have bounced back with wins against Chelsea and Newcastle – two tricky games on paper, especially Newcastle away. Brighton have had an entertaining few games too – they beat Wolves 6-0 with a second XI, beat United in the 99th minute and then lost 5-1 against Everton. Talk about rollercoaster. Brighton have been very good away from home this season, and this will be a tough test for Arsenal. Brighton sit in the top four on the away form table, so I’m sure there will be a lot of layers around for Arsenal.
The home side come into the game trading as the odds on favourites. Arsenal at 1.8 with Brighton 4.6 and the draw is 4.3 at the time of writing. I know Brighton haven’t been as reliable as usual recently, but the 1.8 feels a little short on Arsenal. Brighton have created an average xG of 2.2 this season and conceded 1.3, while Arsenal created an average xG of 2.1 and conceded 1.2. We have two very similar sides here, but Arsenal have taken their chances and grinded out more results. Brighton desperately need a striker because they create so much and don’t get the results they deserve. I’m happy to stay away from the match odds market here because this game screams goals in my opinion. Brighton are always an entertaining side to watch but they have been more open than usual lately. Arsenal have had their fair share of drama filled games recently too, and they need to win so have to throw players forward. Over 2.5 goals jumps off the page at 1.61 – I felt we’d see this price closer to 1.5, and I believe it’s worth a Max Bet at the odds. We should have a very entertaining end-to-end game here!
The Striker Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.61 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ArsBha
FACTMAN MATCH STATS
● Following their 4-2 win at the Amex Stadium in December, Arsenal are looking to complete the Premier League double over Brighton for just the second time (also 2020-21).
● Brighton have won three of their last four away games against Arsenal in all competitions (L1), including a 3-1 victory in this season’s EFL Cup. The Seagulls had been winless in their first eight visits to the Gunners before this run (D2 L6).
● Brighton have lost nine of their 10 Premier League away games against sides starting the day in the top two, with the exception being a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in October 2021. They have conceded 23 goals in those 10 matches, while scoring just six in reply.
● After losing 1-5 at home to Everton last time out, Brighton could suffer consecutive Premier League defeats for only a second time this season (previously in October). Away from home, the Seagulls have lost two of their last three league games (W1), as many as their previous 10 beforehand (W4 D4 L2).
● Arsenal have won five of their last six league games at the Emirates (D1), scoring at least three goals in all six such games; only two sides have ever scored 3+ goals in more consecutive Premier League home games – Manchester United (7 from December 2009 to March 2010) and Manchester City (10 from April to October 2022).
● Arsenal have won 25 of their 35 Premier League games this season (D6 L4); only in 1930-31 (28), 1970-71 (29), 2001-02 (26) and 2003-04 (26) have they ever won more league matches in a single campaign, with the Gunners winning the top-flight title in all four of those seasons.
● Brighton’s 27 Premier League matches under Roberto De Zerbi have seen 92 goals (52 for, 40 against). Among managers to take charge of 20+ games in the competition’s history, only John Gorman’s matches have had a higher goal rate (3.50 – 147 goals in 42 games) than the Italian’s (3.41).
● Arsenal captain Martin Ødegaard has been involved in four goals in his four Premier League games against Brighton (2 goals, 2 assists), both scoring and assisting in the Gunners’ 4-2 win against them in December. The Norwegian has scored five goals in his last five Premier League appearances overall.
● Arsenal are averaging 1.9 points-per-game and a 50% win rate in the Premier League this season when defender William Saliba hasn’t played (P8 W4 D3 L1), compared to 2.4 points-per-game and a 78% win rate when he has featured (P27 W21 D3 L3). The Gunners concede twice as many goals-per-game on average when he hasn’t played (1.8) versus when he has (0.9) this term, also facing more shots-per-game without him (11.8) than with him (8.3).
● Alexis Mac Allister has scored 10 Premier League goals this season, more than any Brighton player, while the only player to score more in a season in the competition for the Seagulls is Glenn Murray, who netted 12 in 2017-18 and 13 in 2018-19.
