SUNDAY SERIE A: The Ultra previews LAZIO v NAPOLI and FIORENTINA v INTER MILAN both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V NAPOLI
5pm The focus from Europe on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this Sunday is on Serie A with two fascinating clashes. Title challengers Inter Milan face a tricky trip to Fiorentina later on, but we kick off the action with Lazio hosting Napoli. This is an interesting market, and it’s no surprise that it’s quite open. Lazio are the favourites with home advantage at 2.4 with Napoli 3.5 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Napoli have been really struggling to get over the line in games this season, and the current Champions sit down in ninth coming into this weekend. Their fall from grace has been quite dramatic if you just look at the table – they are a whopping 21 points behind Juventus at the top of the table coming into this game which is remarkable. However, the under-lining numbers paint a different picture. A barely believable stat from Serie A this season is that Napoli have the best attacking xG figure – their average xG created of 1.88 is better than Inter Milan! They have been performing well at the back too – their average xG conceded of 1.14 is the third best in Serie A, only 0.07 off the best defensive figure too. So, what’s going wrong for Napoli then? They are marginally conceding more goals than they should but the real issue is going forward.
Napoli have just really struggled to put the ball in the net this season and that’s why they sit down in ninth. The way things have worked out this season, it’s a bit of a log-jam behind the top three so they are only three points off a place in the top four. You wouldn’t rule out Napoli finishing fourth either given the way they are playing – they just have to start taking their chances! Lazio are definitely in the mix for that fourth spot too – they have been trying to keep games as tight as possible this season and that has definitely impacted them going forward. Their average xG created is only 1.11 this season which is quite poor – that’s the fifth worst attacking figure in Serie A this season. We have a very open market here, but I would actually have the market even more open. I feel the 2.4 on Lazio is too short here given what Napoli have been creating this season. I fully accept the fact that they have found it difficult to win games and take their chances but I still feel they are worth supporting here. I wouldn’t put anyone off the 3.5 on Napoli but I feel the better position is the 2.4 lay on Lazio.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Lazio to beat Napoli at 2.4 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LazNpi
FIORENTINA V INTER MILAN
7.45pm We stay in Serie A to finish Sunday as Fiorentina host Inter Milan. This should be a top class game, and this is the start of a huge week for Inter. They won the Italian Super Cup which they obviously enjoyed, but now they face Fiorentina away from home who start the weekend sitting in the top four before having to play Juventus next weekend. With Juventus winning while Inter won the Super Cup, Juve have the lead at the top of the table by one point. Inter have a game in hand of course to take back the advantage, but for the time being the are under pressure – we should know a lot more about the title race by this time next week! Inter Milan have been superb this season, and they come into this game as the marginally odds on favourites. The away win is trading 1.95 at the time of writing with Fiorentina 4.3 and the draw is 3.75. I have to say I was surprised to see Inter trading odds on when I clicked into the market. I know they have been impressive this season, but there are a huge amount of positives with Fiorentina this season. Their average xG created is 1.51 which is the fourth best attacking figure in Serie A, while their average xG conceded is 1.14 which is the joint-third best defensive figure with Napoli. The major difference between Fiorentina and Napoli this season is that Fiorentina are performing in line with their xG figures!
At home Fiorentina have been very solid too. They’ve only lost twice here this season, and one of those came against Juventus. Their average xG conceded is a very low 1.08 here which is clearly impressive. It has to be pointed out however that Inter won 4-0 when they had home advantage earlier in the season! In fairness to Inter, they have been faultless this season – it’s very hard to pick holes in them and I fully expect them to lift the title come the end of the season. However, from a value point of view I just can’t get away from the Inter lay here at 1.95. I just expect a closer game than those odds suggest with Fiorentina playing such good football this season. They have been rock solid at home all season too, and they are creating good chances as well. I fully respect Inter, but I wouldn’t have them odds on here. I’m not going to go crazy with the stakes, but I am happy with an Inter lay at 1.95. I feel the Fiorentina performance will make those odds look pretty short.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Inter Milan to beat Fiorentina at 1.95 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FioMil
