FRIDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews AUGSBURG v UNION BERLIN and REAL BETIS v CELTA VIGO both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AUGSBURG V UNION BERLIN
7.30pm Friday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from the Bundesliga and La Liga! It’s been a massive week around Europe with the Champions League and Europa League Quarter-Finals starting, and while we don’t have glamorous fixtures here we do have two interesting markets. We have two home favourites, neither are odds on, and both have question marks over them. We kick the action off in the Bundesliga as Augsburg host Union Berlin – Augsburg will be absolutely delighted with their season so far while you can say the opposite about Union Berlin. Augsburg start this weekend sitting up in seventh which is superb for them considering they were only one point off the bottom three last season. Union Berlin have been in a relegation fight but they have moved away from that now – they have a six point cushion on the bottom three but it’s been a remarkable drop off from finishing in the top four last season. I know they over-performed last season, but they were rock solid at home and although we see a lot of change in the Bundesliga to go from top four to relegation battle it quite the turnaround!
Augsburg come into the game as the favourites at 2.14 with Union Berlin 3.7 and the draw is 3.65 at the time of writing. The Augsburg under-lining numbers are basically mid-table level; you wouldn’t argue with them being seventh given there’s a six point gap to the top six – seventh is basically the best they can do. Both sides have a very similar overall figure at the back; Augsburg have an average xG conceded of 1.48 while for Union Berlin it’s was 1.49. The big difference between the sides is going forward; Union Berlin have really struggled to create chances and score goals. Their average xG created is only 1.13 which is the fourth worst attacking figure in the Bundesliga, and they aren’t even converting those chances because they are scoring less than one goal per game on average. They’ve only managed nine points away from home all season too. I wouldn’t say that being at home is a massive advantage for Augsburg, but being away is definitely a big negative for Union – their away performances this season have been really poor and I’d have Augsburg closer to 2.0 than 2.14 here. They are worth a confident bet to get the job done.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Augsburg to beat Union Berlin at 2.14 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AugUni
REAL BETIS V CELTA VIGO
8pm We move to La Liga to finish Friday night as Real Betis host Celta Vigo. Once again we have a home favourite here, Real Betis are trading 2.16 with Celta Vigo 3.75 and the draw is 3.55 at the time of writing. A quick look at the table would make you think this will be a straightforward task for Real Betis – they sit in 8th while Celta Vigo are down in 17th just three points away from the relegation zone. However, if you look a little deeper into the under-lining numbers you will see it’s not that straightforward. Celta Vigo have definitely under-performed this season, their average xG created is actually very close to Real Betis. Celta Vigo have an average xG created of 1.31 while for Real Betis it’s just a little higher at 1.34. Again there isn’t much between the sides at the back too; Celta Vigo have conceded more but it’s small margins; their average xG conceded is 1.42 while for Real Betis it’s 1.36. Why are Celta Vigo in the relegation battle then? They aren’t taking their chances, and that’s the big question here in regards to laying Real Betis.
At what stage do we just accept that Celta Vigo are poor in front of goal, despite creating more than they are scoring. They haven’t been too bad away from home though; they’ve actually managed 14 points which is a good return for a club three points off the bottom three. Real Betis have been a lot more solid at the back at home, and for that reason I’m not going to lay the home win here. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market because Under 2.5 goals looks a very nice position at 1.9. Real Betis haven’t exactly set the world on fire in front of goal this season, and we can see looking at the stats that Celta Vigo have struggled to score goals too. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a 0-0 here, but I do feel we won’t see many goals. Realistically at this stage of the season a draw for Celta Vigo is a good result in the relegation battle too so they could be quite negative here; I expect a cagey affair.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BetClt
