TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews the semi-final second leg between PSG v DORTMUND with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
PSG V DORTMUND
8pm It’s crunch time in the Champions League Semi-Finals this week on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE! PSG host Dortmund on Tuesday after losing the first leg in Germany 1-0, now with home advantage and Dortmund’s troubles away from home you’d have to say that the tie is set up perfectly. We were all expecting goals and drama in the first leg but we only got one – it will be fascinating to see what tactics Dortmund employ here away from home with a 1-0 lead to protect. PSG come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.51 with Dortmund 7.2 and the draw is 4.9 at the time of writing.
Although we only had one goal in the first leg, we did see a very entertaining game. The volume of chances we had would suggest we were very unlucky to only see one goal – PSG can say that they were unlucky too. They finished the game with an xG of 1.65 which was more than Dortmund created. I highlighted this heading into the first leg, but home advantage was always going to be absolutely key for Dortmund in this tie, and now we have the ask the question – is a one goal lead enough? PSG are still the odds on favourites in the To Qualify market.
Dortmund have had plenty of issues away from home in the Bundesliga this season. They are conceding an average xG of 1.61 away from home which is very high for a side in a battle for a top four finish. That is also more than they are creating, and they were put in their place recently away from home with a 4-1 loss to RB Leipzig in the battle for fourth. In the Champions League this season, Dortmund managed two wins away from home in the Group stage – against Newcastle and AC Milan. They lost 2-0 here as these two were in the same Group, drew 1-1 with PSV in the Last 16 and then lost 2-1 to Atletico Madrid in the Quarter-Finals.
In my opinion, the best Dortmund can hope for here is a draw – but that’s all they need! PSG are obviously running away with the Ligue 1 title but that is to be expected. I think the most interesting stat from PSG this season is their average xG conceded of 1.31. It’s not a surprise to see them have the best attacking figure, but they have been leaking chances this season. That figure isn’t in the top five defensive figures and obviously with Ligue 1 being such a low standard compare to the other top leagues in Europe – I can see Dortmund getting chances here.
While I feel PSG are the better side and should win, it’s hard to make a very good case that they should be a lot shorter than their current 1.51 and thus a good value bet. You couldn’t have them as short as 1.4 here for example – Dortmund have had a lot of issues at the back away from home but they are an excellent attacking side on their day. As I said above, we were unlucky to only see one goal in the first leg and I feel we’ll see a lot more here. Over 2.5 goals is trading two ticks bigger than the PSG win at 1.53 and I feel that offers much more value. I expect a very end-to-end game here with plenty of chances – I wouldn’t be surprised to see an early PSG goal and then Dortmund fight fire with fire and we get a very open game.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/PsgDrt
