BIG-FOUR SATURDAY HANDICAPS: Handicaps are Daqman’s forte, and there won’t be many more opportunities to dig for gold before Cheltenham and then the Grand National are upon us, so he looks for four big hits at Doncaster, Kelso and Newbury this afternoon, with BETDAQ value to guide him.
All run within an hour: 3.15 to 4.15
🔹 Grimthorpe: It’s Going To Be Some Party: a 7.1 nap
🔹 Morebattle Handicap: Shunter punter? 6.6 and 44.0
🔹 Greatwood: Here’s Looking at You Kid: BETDAQ 12.5
🔹 Newbury: Don’t Mess with Eaton Annie: BETDAQ 7.6
HERE’S LOOKING AT YOU, KID
⭕ 3.45 Newbury (Greatwood Gold Cup): A good guide to the future. Six of the last 10 winners went on to score at Aintree in the Spring, two at Cheltenham.
Paul Nicholls has won this three times in the decade and is looking for an Aintree pointer from Kandoo Kid but it’s the big’un he wants, the Grand National under Harry Cobden (Harry Skelton will ride stable companion Threeunderthrufive). BETDAQ 12.5 this morning.
The Topham would be a more obvious right of passage from this 2m 4f chase, and that’s where I think we’ll see the one-time Newbury Gold Cup winner, Le Milos, who got round in the National in Corach Rambler’s year and was back to form at Warwick.
Still low in the handicap and claimed off but it’s hard to accept that the winner will be a veterans’ chase scorer last time out.
A 10-year-old has won the Greatwood twice in six years but generally its winners are aged seven and eight (8 out of 10), and five-year-old Billytherealbigred, winner of two novice chases, looks short on experience: it’s a tough ask against another front-runner, Saint Segal but he’ll love the ground.
Two seven-year-olds were one-two over the CD here at Newbury – more than 20 lengths clear of the rest of the field – in the Lucky Dip Chase (good to soft) in December. Saint Segal made virtually all and slammed Beau Balko 11 lengths. BETDAQ 10.5
Beau Balko (also a Nicholls) was beaten before and after that race, giving us form figures of 222, seconds from a mark of 129 for every one of them. The handicapper is saying ‘what you see is what you get.’
Vincenzo has scored three times at around 2m, two of them in recent novice chases. Form figures around today’s 2m 4f are 324330 but those are over hurdles.
His trainer, Sam Thomas, won last Saturday’s big race in runway fashion with Ultima hope Katate Dori.
VISCHIO A SHUNTER ON TRACK
⭕ 3.30 Kelso (Morebattle Handicap): The Shunter, winner for Emmet Mullins of the 2023 Cesarewitch at the age of 11, first hit the headlines when he landed a gamble in this £61k hurdle on the way to taking the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival of 2021.
Now here’s Vischio for the same yard with three Cheltenham entries, top quality already revealed in taking the €59k mares’ Listed hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival at the beginning of February.
Principal home defender is last year’s Scottish Champion Hurdle winner, Favour And Fortune, who ran well off his new mark at Newbury last month and acts on any going.
But those who sift the form and facts of a big field hoping to find a big BETDAQ outsider could try Petrol Head or Alnilam.
CD winner a year or so back as a novice, Alnilam – moved to Olly Murphy – then stepped up two furlongs and led all the way. Raised in class and placed at Wetherby and Ascot in the autumn before scoring at Southwell (class 2).
Petrol Head is nine now but with only eight starts – three times a winner – since breaking his maiden, all in Ireland. A winner twice when fresh, he has an electric turn of foot on decent ground and trainer Neil Mulholland says ‘he’s been working with winners at home.’
Because of the shenanigans of his career in Ireland (nuff said), Petrol Head – running off 130 NH here – inherits a rating of 48 on the Flat!
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.6 Vischio, 7.2 Favour And Fortune, 44 PetRol Head
DON’T MESS WITH EATON ANNE
⭕ 4.15 Newbury: Seven of the 11 in this handicap hurdle (2m 4.5f) are rated within a 3lb range (117-120), and the top pair – both on 124 – are ridden by top stable jockeys Harry Cobden (on the still progressive Guard Duty) and Nico De Boinville (on Go To War).
It’s another example of how tough are the modern handicaps, how close to being conditions races.
Not fluent, Go To War was favourite when struck into here at Newbury around Christmas time, so tries the trip again.
The aim is to see whether it is right for him, and whether his jumping is up to the test in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, facing progressive types today, Loverdose and Eaton Anne.
In four races since October, Loverdose has climbed from a class-5 win at Chepstow to class-4 at Windsor and class-3 the last day at Sandown, hiked 29lb but still getting weight all round here.
But in two bounds recently between Uttoxeter and Lingfield (won 22 lengths), Eaton Anne – a gelding not a mare – shot up 17lb in class-4. BETDAQ 7.6
And Solar System has been raise 15lb in the same division for three wins from four starts since November.
IT’S GOING TO BE SOME PARTY
⭕ NAP OF THE DAY: 3.15 Doncaster: Some Scope, laid out for the Grimthorpe last year, could manage only the runner-up spot in the Town Moor mud.
With good ground there today, and the Rowland Meyrick feather in his cap on Boxing Day, he has Gavin Sheehan back in the saddle. BETDAQ 7.1.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
★ 3.15 Doncaster (win 40, nap)
BET 6.25pts win SOME SCOPE
3.30 Kelso (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 8.25pts win VISCHIO
BET 1pt win and place PETROL HEAD
BET 1.5pts to win 10 FAVOUR AND FORTUNE
3.45 Newbury (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5pts win SAINT SEGAL
BET 4.5pts win KANDOO KID
4.15 Newbury (win 30)
BET 5pts win EATON ANNE
BET 3.25pts to win 12 LOVERDOSE
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