NFL WEEK 6: This week began with a Thursday night stunner, as a Giants team led by rookies at the quarterback and running back positions totally dominated the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles, who entered the game having won 6 of their past 7 against their division rivals from Gotham. The win puts the G-Men at 2-4, still in the hole in terms of the playoff race but with a jolt of fresh hope in the form of rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo. Not only have they breathed life into the long-dormant New York offense, they’re fun to watch! When’s the last time you could say that about the Giants?
We’ve got another loaded Sunday on tap, starting with the early London game, which this week is Jets vs. Broncos, and ending about 14 hours later with the nightcap, Lions/Chiefs in Arrowhead. It’s been a great season so far for followers of this column, as another successful 3-1 week last week puts us at 14-6 on the year, so we’ve been seeing things well. Let’s see if we can go for the clean sweep with these four:
Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars (JAX -1, 47.5)
Recommendation: Seattle moneyline (to win) at 1.99
The Jags are coming off one of the biggest victories in recent franchise history, a thrilling Monday night win over the defending AFC champion Chiefs. There could be a letdown factor here, sure, but my bet in this game has more to do with the matchups than with any external motivational factors. Given the strengths and weaknesses of this Jacksonville team, the Seahawks are going to be a tough out: the Seattle D is excellent up front, ranking 4th in the NFL against the run thanks to a stout d-line, and if they’re able to snuff out what has been an effective Jaguars rushing attack and put the game on the arm of Trevor Lawrence, the Seahawks will be at an advantage. Lawrence showed some gumption last week and was effective with his legs, but he’s an erratic pocket passer who is prone to turning the ball over, so if he’s forced to do too much, it’s generally bad news for the Jags. On the other side of the ball, Seattle leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt while the Jacksonville secondary ranks 27th in pass yards allowed… again, not a good matchup for the Jags. Smart money is on Seattle here.
Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -7, 47)
Recommendation: Indianapolis -7 at 1.91
Indianapolis has been rolling, but, interestingly, Arizona seems to be a popular public bet this week at sportsbooks that report such things. I guess it shouldn’t come as a surprise that many are slow to buy into the Colts considering preseason expectations, but we’ve had five games of evidence now and I’m firmly of the belief that they are legit. Daniel Jones has been masterful in leading the offense, and it sure makes things easy when you have the NFL’s leading rusher in the backfield. The Cardinals have been tough against the run so far, but this will definitely be their stiffest test of the season, as no team has been able to bottle up Jonathan Taylor (96 rush ypg), and the threat that Jones presents with his legs only adds to the stress placed on defenses. And the Cards might not even have their starting quarterback for this game, as Kyler Murray has been held out of practice all week due to a foot injury and will be a game-time decision on Sunday. If he can’t go, it will be Jacoby Brissett under center for Arizona, and either QB is going to have to deal with a ball-hawking Colts D that ranks 4th in the league in interceptions and 5th in sacks. Indianapolis is 3-0 at home this year, with the wins coming by a combined score of 102-42. Food for thought as you consider whether the 7-point number is too big here…
Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders (LV -4, 41.5)
Recommendation: Las Vegas -4 at 1.91
Two bad teams face off in Sin City on Sunday, but I have a hunch that one is clearly worse than the other, and that this game will play out accordingly. For all their faults, the Raiders have a functional, balanced offense that is statistically middle-of-the-pack when it comes to yards per game and passing yards, while featuring a dangerous rookie tailback who is 8th in the league in rushing and very capable of producing explosive plays. They just need to quit turning the ball over. The Titans, on the other hand, are a dysfunctional mess on both sides of the ball but especially on offense, where they average an NFL-low 14.6 points per game and are led by a rookie QB who is getting sacked on 10% of his dropbacks and producing just 148.6 yards per game through the air. Raiders DE Maxx Crosby, one of the league’s top pass rushers, is going to be in Cam Ward’s lap all game on Sunday, and it’s difficult to imagine the Tennessee offense suddenly coming together to start doing things they haven’t done all year. This is a get-right opportunity for the Raiders, and I expect them to take advantage of it.
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -2, 52.5)
Recommendation: Kansas City -2 at 1.91
The Sunday nighter is a good one, as the reeling Chiefs will host a Lions team that has won four straight games after a season-opening loss to Green Bay. The word “reeling” may be a bit too strong in describing the current state of the Chiefs, but they have a losing record through five weeks for the first time in the Mahomes era, and they’re coming off a dramatic Monday night loss to a Jacksonville team that has been a punchline in recent years. But if you saw that game, you know that, despite the loss, things are actually coming together nicely for the Kansas City offense. It’s a unit that is steadily adding to its arsenal, with speedster Xavier Worthy now back in the fold and Rashee Rice set to be active next week, and aside from a game-altering pick-six, they were hardly slowed down in Jacksonville on Monday night, rolling up 476 total yards and four touchdowns. That comes on the heels of wins over the Ravens and Giants in which they scored 59 combined points and won both games by double-digits. In other words, I believe the Chiefs are gelling right now, and this will be the sort of challenge that Detroit hasn’t faced since the Week 1 two-touchdown defeat at the hands of the hated Packers. Though the Lions haven’t lost since, their victories have come over the Bears, Ravens, Browns, and Bengals… four teams that will likely be watching the playoffs from the couch (with the possible exception of Chicago?). This will be an entirely different sort of challenge, and the back end of the Lions defense has been vulnerable, with only six teams allowing more TD passes than Detroit’s 10. Gimme the Chiefs here, by at least a touchdown.
