LA LIGA SATURDAY: The Ultra previews ATHLETIC BILBAO v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATHLETIC BILBAO V BARCELONA
8pm The focus from Europe on Saturday is on La Liga as Athletic Bilbao and Barcelona clash on Betdaq Betting Exchange ! There’s no doubt that Barcelona are on the front foot in the La Liga title race – Real Madrid lost back-to-back games, and they face a tricky away tie to Celta Vigo. Barcelona could have a golden opportunity to open up a potentially decisive gap at the top of the table depending on how Friday night goes for Real. This is also a huge game for Barcelona, they simply cannot afford to drop points here with what’s going on with Real at the moment. It feels like the atmosphere inside the Bernabeu has turned toxic; Barcelona can’t give an inch.
This is generally a top class fixture too; the stadium will be rocking. As you would expect, Barcelona come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.66 with Athletic Bilbao 5.1 and the draw is 4.7 at the time of writing. Barcelona’s underlying numbers this season have been exceptional, while Athletic Bilbao have really struggled to convert their chances so they sit in mid-table. They sit third in the La Liga xG table with an average xG created of 1.61 – level with Atlético de Madrid for example, but their converted figure is only 1.15. Their average xG conceded is 1.14 which is the third best defensive figure, but again Bilbao haven’t been performing in line with that – they’ve been sloppy at the back conceding more than they should.
Bilbao are generally very strong at home, but obviously Barcelona’s figures have been top class. Their average xG created of 2.29 is the best attacking figure in La Liga, and their average xG conceded of 1.08 is also the best defensive figure. You can’t really complain about them being top. Obviously Bilbao have been playing better football compared to their results, but Barcelona are still miles ahead. Plus when you’ve been sloppy at the back, Barcelona are the last side you want to face. Hansi Flick has had everything this season with this Barcelona side. That might explain all the drama in Madrid with Real fans have been turning on Viniicius Junior; that kind of internal pressure rarely ends well for any side but obviously we’ve that before at Real.
You’d have to expect a reasonably tight game looking at the figures. We have two of the top three defensive sides in La Liga meeting, obviously Bilbao have been sloppy at the back but they do have home advantage here. I would expect Barcelona to get the job done, but the 1.66 doesn’t exactly jump off the page as massive value. It’s hard to argue that Barcelona should be ten ticks shorter for example. Under 2.5 goals is a tempting bet 2.8 just before the market is expecting goals – possibly because Bilbao don’t really need to play for a draw here given they sit in mid-table. Both sides will be swinging for it, because Barcelona will hardly sit back. I’m going to keep stakes small, but I do feel there is value in that Unders price – I’d just have it a little shorter.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Under 2.5 goals at 2.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/LLAtBa
