PREMIER LEAGUE FRIDAY: The Striker previews SUNDERLAND v NOTTINGHAM FOREST with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
SUNDERLAND V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
8pm It’s been a busy week in the Premier League, and we’re back with Friday Night Football on Betdaq Betting Exchange! Sunderland host Nottingham Forest at the Stadium of Light as Forest try to move further away from the relegation zone. A stunning 4-1 win over Burnley last on Sunday moved them five points clear of the relegation zone and looking in increasingly good shape to stay up. Forest are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games, a run that has come just at the right time – it now looks like the final relegation place will be between West Ham and Spurs, but a win here for Forest would really seal the deal for them.
It’s been quite the dramatic season for Forest – they’ve had been through more managers than anyone else, but now the season seems to be finishing on a high. Confidence in the squad must be sky high after getting into the Europa League Semi-Final. A first European Semi-Final for the club since their back-to-back European Cup glory days of 1979 and 1980. They face Aston Villa in an all Premier League clash, and while Villa are miles ahead of them in the Premier League, much has been made of them over-performing this season and having fairly average xG figures. Forest will go into that tie with a fighting chance. From that point of view, a win here and almost being able to forget about the relegation battle would be a huge boost. It would obviously help to rest players in between the two legs of the Semi-Final.
Sunderland came into this season trading odds on for relegation. They had a wonderful start, and have basically carried that momentum through. They have had no relegation worries, and given their fans plenty of excellent moments. There are a lot of red flags though with a view to two season, and it would be foolish to ignore them. Their average xG created of 1.18 is the third worst attacking figure in the Premier League, and their average xG conceded of 1.65 is the third worst defensive record. That data suggests they have been fortunate at times this season, and I would suggest they need to spend some money in the summer otherwise they could easily be heavily involved in the relegation battle next season.
While Nottingham Forest have been involved in the relegation battle this season, they are playing better football than Sunderland. Forest’s average xG created of 1.45 is a very solid mid-table attacking figure, and their average xG conceded of 1.43 is also reasonable – basically mid-table standard. We have a very open betting heat; Sunderland are the marginal favourites at 2.84 with Nottingham Forest just two ticks bigger at 2.86 with the draw 3.3 at the time of writing. I can’t see Forest resting players even with the Villa tie looming – they still need a bit of cushion in the relegation battle. I know there isn’t much in the market, but I feel we have the wrong favourites here – I would have Forest are the marginal favourites, and from a value point of view I’m happy to lay Sunderland at 2.84.
The Striker Says:
Two points lay (liability) Sunderland to beat Nottingham Forest at 2.84 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
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