SERIE A SUNDAY: The Ultra previews AC MILAN v JUVENTUS with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
AC MILAN V JUVENTUS
7.45pm We have a blockbuster from Europe on Sunday on Betdaq Betting Exchange! AC Milan host Juventus at the San Siro in undoubtedly the biggest clash of the weekend in Serie A. With five games remaining, both sides are in excellent positions in the race for Champions League spots – Inter have been the best side in Italy by a distance this season and while Juventus had to finish strongly to break into the top four, it seems Como have slipped away with back-to-back losses. Now Juventus come into the weekend in fourth with a nice five point cushion on Como in fifth.
As you would expect in a clash between these two, we have a pretty open betting heat. Juventus are the favourites at 2.56 with AC Milan 3.25 and the draw is also 3.25 at the time of writing. While AC Milan are three points ahead in the table, it is Juventus playing the better football between the sides this season. When you look at the underlying numbers, there is a clear gap in terms of performance level. Juventus’ average xG created of 1.88 is the second best attacking figure in Serie A – only Inter Milan’s 1.97 is better. Their average xG conceded of 1.12 is fourth in the league, which is again excellent. They are title challenging, if not winning, figures to be honest. Juventus have really struggled to create good quality chances in recent seasons; they have fixed that this season, but they need to start converting them too.
AC Milan have done very well to collect the points they have. Their average xG created of 1.51 is only the seventh best attacking figure in Serie A, and their average xG conceded of 1.27 is also the seventh best defensive figure. You could make a strong argument that they are really lucky to be in the European spots, never mind second. We usually see a very tight affair when these sides meet – Over 2.5 goals has only collect once in the last six meetings between the sides. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.91 and I have to say I was surprised to see that trading so high when I clicked into the market.
While AC Milan have been conceding more chances than Juventus, they have home advantage and have been generally solid at the back all season. They’ve actually conceded less than a goal a game on average. Juventus have also been rock solid at the back – a better average xG conceded than AC Milan, and also conceding less than a goal a game on average. I can see this being an extremely cagey affair, and it’s hard to see past Under 2.5 goals at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SAAcJu
