CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews the semi-final between ATLETICO MADRID v ARSENAL with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ATLETICO MADRID V ARSENAL
8pm We have the second Champions League Semi-Final on Wednesday on Betdaq Betting Exchange as Atletico Madrid host Arsenal at the Metropolitano! While Tuesday’s tie promised plenty of fireworks, this tie feels like it might be a cagey affair with Diego Simeone and Mikel Arteta clashing! This is a fascinating tie in every sense – Arsenal are still in the nerve-shredding Premier League title race so have to keep two eyes firmly focused on that as well, while Atletico are certain of a top four spot in La Liga. With no title race, Diego Simeone has been given permission to rest his main starting XI whenever he decides to in La Liga. You have to feel that’s a slight advantage over the tie.
It’s hard to see anything but a very cagey and tight game here, and it’s no surprise that we have a very open betting heat. Arsenal come into the game as the favourites at 2.74 with Atletico Madrid 2.94 and the draw is 3.3 at the time of writing. Having held a nine point lead at the top of the Premier League not so long ago, the Gunners have watched that cushion disappear following a painful 2-1 defeat at Manchester City. They now lead by just three points, but City have a game in hand. It feels like they are on edge in every game. Even the Quarter-Final tie over Sporting Lisbon raised more questions than answers. They scored early against Newcastle at the weekend, and then decided to defend the lead rather than kick on. That seems to be just Arteta’s style.
His side must now navigate this Champions League Semi-Final while the pressure of the title race bears down on every single decision. The mental load on this Arsenal squad should not be underestimated. However, this fixture might actually suit their mentality at the moment. I feel like their style of play has become very negative – but away from home in a first leg tie that probably suits. A draw here isn’t a bad result for Arsenal after all, and from an Atletico point you view, you feel they need to bring a lead to London. Arsenal have been playing the better football this season; there’s no doubt about that. However, their average xG created has been dropping in recent weeks – it’s down to 1.69 now in the Premier League – still an impressive figure but it was mid 1.7’s not too long ago. Arsenal’s average xG conceded of just 0.96 is exceptionally good though given how competitive the Premier League is.
Atletico were never involved in the La Liga title battle this season, but as we just saw in the Quarter-Final against Barcelona, they are still a top side on their day. Their average xG created of 1.56 places them fourth in La Liga, and their xG conceded of 1.28 is solid but not outstanding. It’s no surprise that Arsenal are favourites looking at the figures, but given the way they play so negatively at the moment, you wouldn’t be rushing to back them at 2.74. You’d have to question whether they’ll even go for a win here. This is where the tactical intrigue becomes fascinating. Arteta, as we have seen all season, sets his side up to be incredibly difficult to beat. He has been criticised at times for being too conservative – and Arsenal have earned the ‘boring’ label from some quarters – I can see him coming to the Metropolitano with the intention of keeping a clean sheet and taking something back to the Emirates which is a perfectly valid game plan.
With that in mind, you thoughts go straight to Under 2.5 goals. That’s trading 1.71 and I have to say I felt that would be shorter clicking into the market. We know how Arteta will set up here. He said as much in the press conference, acknowledging that Arsenal would approach this as a first-leg tie where keeping things tight is the priority. Similarly, Simeone’s Atletico are hardly a side that will throw caution to the wind. I also think 0-0 at half-time is a very likely scenario – both sides will want to assess each other before committing, I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see 0-0 at full-time. The 1.71 on Unders looks cracking value here.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLAtAr
