CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TUESDAY: The Ultra previews ARSENAL v ATLETICO MADRID with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ARSENAL V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm It’s a blockbuster week on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and the Champions League Semi-Final second legs are here! We kick off the week with tactical intrigue as Arsenal host Atletico Madrid at the Emirates with everything to play for after a 1-1 draw in the first leg at the Metropolitano. Viktor Gyokeres gave Arsenal a priceless away lead with a nerveless penalty just before half-time, only for Julian Alvarez to level from the spot in the 56th minute. Atletico were much the better side in the second half last week, but as we all know Arteta’s plan would have been to just hold on and get through the 90 minutes away from home. It will be interesting to see do tactics change now Arsenal are at home!
What we saw in the first leg largely played out as expected from the respective managers – both sides were cagey and measured for large spells. Diego Simeone is the master of the big occasion; it’s hard to see him attacking here though. It’s no surprise that Arsenal come into the game as the odds on favourites with home advantage – the Gunners are trading 1.7 with Atletico Madrid 5.7 and the draw is 4.1 at the time of writing. Arteta will set up Arsenal to be incredibly hard to beat here at home; that is his default mode, particularly in big games. His side have been the best defensive team in the Premier League all season, with an average xG conceded of just 0.96 – that’s a seriously impressive figure in a league as competitive as the Premier League. I know Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona at Camp Nou, but dare I say if Atletico progress here we’ll have to see a performance from them that we haven’t seen all season.
Arsenal’s average xG created of 1.70 in the Premier League is the fourth best in England and shows they have attacking threat too, even if Arteta’s approach can at times look conservative. Atletico sit third in La Liga with an xG created average of 1.57 and an xG conceded of 1.27 – solid but not elite, and a long way behind the top two in Spain. Diego Simeone was told by the Atletico board he can rest whomever he likes given they have reached this stage of the Champions League – Arsenal don’t have that luxury given they are locked in the Premier League title race with Manchester City. They did have a confidence boosting win at the weekend over Fulham though – the first time they have won a game without looking nervous and went six points clear with City having two games in hand. Goal difference now puts Arsenal in a good spot though.
This match has the ingredients for another cagey, tactical affair in my opinion. Arteta never goes into a big game with the idea of attacking and having an open game – it’s hard to see Simeone setting his side up to attack away from home. It really wouldn’t be a surprise here to see a very cagey start and 0-0 at half-time for example. From there, the game might have to open up. The 1.7 on Arsenal seems a fair price – they have been the better side this season and played the better football, there’s no doubt about that. Handling the big moment is the question with this squad. I’m happy to stay out of the match odds market here because nothing jumps off the page as obvious value. What I do feel strongly about is this being Under 2.5 goals. We saw in the first leg that both sides are happy to be disciplined defensively, and with so much at stake and both teams so organised, I expect another tense, low-scoring affair. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.96 and that looks cracking value – I fully expected that to be clear favourite in the goals market, and I’m happy with a confident bet on Unders.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.96 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CLArAt
