‘MUFFIN’ FOR TEA AT AYR: Daqman has a tea-time treat at Ayr today, Muffin McLeay, and rates a Timmy Murphy mount so strongly to get into the frame that he makes it a place nap at Sedgefield. Then there’s a 20-1 shock lined up at Wolverhampton.
IT’S A BIG WEEK WITH DAQMAN: Daqman also looks at big races to come and his programme for the rest of the week is: Tomorrow, BETDAQ racing at Kempton Park; Thursday, ARC preview for Sunday; Friday and Saturday, jackpot bets at Ascot and Newmarket.
It was the relief of Mafeting. John Dunlop had a very lean time of it up until August and one that made the breakthrough for him, Mafeting, is heading for a hat-trick this week.
In typical Dunlop fashion, Mafeting was educated at distances up to 12 furlongs, then suddenly stepped up to 1m 6f, then 2m, at Yarmouth and – raised in grade – at York. She won both with authority,
The late-maturing filly, a daughter of Nayef, is up again in class for the Gordon Carter Stakes at Ascot on Friday, and needs the going to stay on top.
Three-year-olds are two out of three in the race, and Mark Johnston has won it twice in the last decade, so his five-out-of-seven-since-May Courtesy Call may turn out again after his second in the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket recently.
If he waits until the Cesarewitch proper on Saturday week, he has to defy the trends: only one other three-year-old has won in the 13 years since Johnston, himself, score with Spirit Of Love in 1998.
Intriguing as to which way Johnston will jump with this one. But the 104.0 available for the Cesarewitch when I checked on BETDAQ suggests that the Gordon Carter is the race he wants.
Two more Tattersalls Millions races – also known as ‘Richard Hannon benefits’ – are run at Newmarket on Saturday, one for fillies, one of them open. Hannon is renowned for his two-year-olds and in particular their huge hauls from these big Sales races.
Now he’s at the double with Tamayuz Star, who recently won the Tattersalls Millions Auction Trophy and has been left in the Two-Year-Old Trophy (2.50).
At Ayr today, Muffin McLeay (4.40), who has already won over the distance on soft ground, is back from a break for the 1m 2f handicap.
‘Muffin’ came out top of the lot in my stats preview for the Cambridgeshire and, 7lb better off for threeparts of a length with the third horse home on Saturday, Boom And Bust, he would surely have been in at the finish.
It’s always a worry for me when a trainer switches a well-handicapped horse to a lesser contest, and it means he has to carry 9st 10lb in the mud at Ayr.
David Barron’s July winner at Ripon has not scored higher than class 4, but has carried welter weights before, including 10st to victory last time out, and Barron has described him as ‘a grand horse.’
And the main danger in the market, Calaf, had to resort to a ‘seller’ and first-time hood to score at Haydock last month, while Act Your Shoe Size is having her third race in around a week and looked jaded last time at Musselburgh.
Gala Casino Star has gone off the boil – and higher in the handicap – and Hot Rod Mamma’s success has come largely up to a mile, so it’s hard to envisage her getting the 1m 2f on heavy, though she’s done it well on good to soft.
In the opening nursery, the step up in trip and drop in class on heavy ground will suit Baraboy (2.10, running at 2.40), trading 9.6 on BETDAQ as I write.
Baraboy, a son of Barathea, who passes on his penchant for very soft ground, has been apprentice-ridden so far but has Graham Lee up today.
The way seems open for Sovereign Street (3.40) to score again after a break. The drop back to the minimum shouldn’t be a problem on this heavy ground after her soft-ground hat-trick in which she always raced prominently.
Arctic Feeling, her only danger according to the market, will surely have some feeling – a jaded hangdog feeling – after two runs in two days on heavy recently. He hasn’t won for two years.
Singeur, not disgraced in the Portland, is the class horse of the race, and is worth a pound at 7.2, with the risk factor over the heavy ground built in to that price; he should be a hot favourite on all known form.
Blanc De Chine (3.00) is a massive price at BETDAQ offers of 20.0, hooded for the first time at Wolverhampton, where the filly is a CD winner.
Similarly, blinkers and Tony McCoy on his only Sedgefield ride may make the difference for Ahyaknowyerself (2.20).
Like McCoy, Timmy Murphy has just the one mount, Young Mags (4.20), for in-form trainer Fergal O’Brien. Young Mags has had a break like this twice before and each time has been placed on his return. Since she is 7.2 on BETDAQ, as I write, I’ll make the mare my place nap.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 6.7pts win AHYAKNOWYERSELF (2.20 Sedgefield)
BET 2.3pts win and place BARABOY (2.10 Ayr, run at 2.40)
BET 1pt win and place BLANC DE CHINE (3.00 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.2pts win SINGEUR (3.40 Ayr)
BET 3.2pts win and place YOUNG MAGS (place nap, 4.20 Sedgefield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double SOVEREIGN STREET (3.40) and MUFFIN McLEAY (4.40), both at Ayr, plus 1pt win treble with Baraboy (2.10 Ayr)
* Daqman’s bets are staked to win 20 points, except in Daq Multiples, so you can work out the offers taken (20 divided by stake)
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