Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-2-1, 3-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Baltimore -2 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
Baltimore: OT Eugene Monroe (questionable– knee), G Kelechi Osemele (questionable– knee), TE Owen Daniels (out– knee), DE Chris Canty (out– infection)
Cincinnati: DT Brandon Thompson (questionable– knee), WR A.J. Green (doubtful– toe), LB Rey Maualuga (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC North opponents
Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game
Cincinnati is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games
Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss
The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 5-2 in Baltimore’s last 7 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
The OVER is 13-6 in Cincinnati’s last 19 games following a loss
Three reasons to back Baltimore
1. The Ravens have the look of a Super Bowl contender, as they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games and rank in the top-6 in both points scored and points allowed. The Bengals, on the other hand, have not won since Week 3 and were beaten 27-0 in their last game. Plus, Baltimore will be plenty motivated here after losing to Cincinnati back in Week 1.
2. Baltimore leads the NFL in points allowed (the only defensive stat that really matters), surrendering just 14.9 points per game. This week they’ll face a Cincinnati offense that was shut out a week ago and will likely be without wideout A.J. Green, their best player. It’s difficult to imagine the Andy Dalton-led Bengals offense– sans Green– having any success in this matchup.
3. The Cincinnati defense has totally collapsed without defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, as they now rank 31st in total defense after ranking 3rd a year ago. They’re getting worse, too– over their last 3 games they’ve surrendered a staggering 107 points. Things don’t get any easier this week, as they’ll attempt to contain an explosive Baltimore offense that is averaging 27.6 points per game.
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals are a veteran team whose professional pride is being put to the test after an embarrassing performance in Indianapolis last week; they figure to be highly motivated when they return home to face division rival Baltimore, a team they have already beaten once this season. And that was back when the Ravens has Ray Rice, Dennis Pitta, and Owen Daniels at their disposal, none of whom will suit up this week.
2. Cincinnati is averaging 31.3 points per game at home this season, and the Ravens, despite having an excellent front seven on defense, struggle in the secondary, ranking 24th against the pass. Andy Dalton will have plenty of opportunities downfield in this game.
3. The Bengals are one of the NFL’s best home teams, going 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 home games, and the home team has generally had success in this rivalry, covering in 4 of the past 5 meetings between these two teams. Plus, Baltimore hasn’t fared well in division games lately, covering just once in their last 5 attempts.
Prediction
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