Buffalo Bills (4-3, 3-4 ATS) @ New York Jets (1-6, 1-5-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New York -3 (40.5)
Significant Injuries
Buffalo: WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable– hamstring), RB Fred Jackson (out– groin), RB C.J. Spiller (out– collarbone), WR Marcus Easley (out– knee)
New York: LB Trevor Reilly (questionable– knee), WR Greg Salas (questionable– wrist), RB Bilal Powell (questionable– foot), CB Phillip Adams (questionable– groin), S Josh Bush (questionable– quadricep), CB Dee Milliner (out– Achilles), G Brian Winters (out– leg)
Recent Trends
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
Buffalo is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games
New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
New York is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last 7 road games
The OVER is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last 7 games vs. AFC East opponents
The OVER is 4-0 in New York’s last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills are looking like a playoff contender at 4-3, while the hapless Jets have lost 6 consecutive games. Buffalo’s reputation as a losing team has affected the line here, though, creating a great opportunity for clear-thinking bettors.
2. The Buffalo offense has improved greatly since Kyle Orton took over for E.J. Manuel at quarterback; Orton is averaging over 280 pass yards per game in his 3 starts and the Bills have won two of those games. This week Orton will face a New York defense that is vulnerable in the secondary, so he’s set up to succeed once again.
3. The Jets have one of the NFL’s worst offenses, a unit that averages just 17.3 points per game and ranks 31st in passing yards. They have little chance of success against a Buffalo defense that ranks 7th in points allowed and is especially good against the run, surrendering just 80 yards per game on the ground. The New York offense is going to be reliant upon the right arm of Geno Smith, and we’ve seen how that usually works out…
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Jets aren’t nearly as bad as their record indicates– last week, for example, they went into New England and outplayed the Patriots before missing a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation. The Bills, meanwhile, are unquestionably the worst 4-3 team in the league, as they squeaked by a terrible Minnesota team last week and were blown out by New England in Week 6.
2. Rex Ryan is known for producing quality defenses and he’s done it again this year, as the Jets rank 8th in both total defense and rushing defense. This week they’ll be facing a Buffalo offense that averages just 19.3 points per game and will be without tailbacks C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, two players they normally rely on.
3. The Bills are a terrible bet in situations like this: they’ve covered just once in their last 5 games against teams with losing records and are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Jets, who are in full “backs against the wall”, must-win mode and are the beneficiary of 10 days’ rest, are a great situational play here.
Prediction
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